Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Today feels pretty close to how I think this "epic pattern" will play out for us. I am not a met, but it seems to me most of the storms we have had this winter have developed after the supposed "big dog" was scheduled to hit and snuck up on us while people looked 10 days away at the "epic pattern" breaking down. The pattern might not deliver, but it certainly isn't going to be warm and rainy....The pattern keeps looking better and better every run for the end of the month...+PNA/-EPO, Split flow, -NAO....the one adverse feature is the PV over the lakes which could eventually go to our NE if we are lucky...this can be a suppressed signal or miller B signal or an inland track......though it is unlikely we will see a low shoot up to our west....and the pattern breaking down can sometimes lead to a good storm during the transition...see for example the 15" storm you just got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 When all is said and done we might be tracking winter for 5-6 mo this yr. that's a lengthy period. It's been cold and snowy since early October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 It's been cold and snowy since early October?I'm counting March. And November was pretty wintry for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The pattern might not deliver, but it certainly isn't going to be warm and rainy....The pattern keeps looking better and better every run for the end of the month...+PNA/-EPO, Split flow, -NAO....the one adverse feature is the PV over the lakes which could eventually go to our NE if we are lucky...this can be a suppressed signal or miller B signal or an inland track......though it is unlikely we will see a low shoot up to our west....and the pattern breaking down can sometimes lead to a good storm during the transition...see for example the 15" storm you just gotTrends have all moved towards a much larger window as well. I think the first week of March is in play. It's basically looking like a 10 period that will have some chances mixed in. The important features like the pv placement/trough axis/pieces of energy etc simply can't be known yet. It's looking like 3 chances of "something" mixed in the period. March 1st 1980 is still a top analog with cpc. What do the euro analogs look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I'm counting March. And November was pretty wintry for this area. Meh. March is no guarantee. And it's going to be blazing hot in like 4 weeks. I like having four seasons, so I'm prob biased. That and I like snow a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Meh. March is no guarantee. And it's going to be blazing hot in like 4 weeks. I like having four seasons, so I'm prob biased. That and I like snow a lot.I like seasons too. My point was this has been a big yr for snow lovers even locally especially when it comes to tracking.. And heck there might even be a rogue April threat with so much cold NW. When it comes to overall winter and not just snow is say this bests 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Trends have all moved towards a much larger window as well. I think the first week of March is in play. It's basically looking like a 10 period that will have some chances mixed in. The important features like the pv placement/trough axis/pieces of energy etc simply can't be known yet. It's looking like 3 chances of "something" mixed in the period. March 1st 1980 is still a top analog with cpc. What do the euro analogs look like? They're pretty good...we are going to see them improve I think since both the pattern is starting to look even better, and the warmer days will drop off the 6-10 day analog period, as it becomes centered over a better period...I'm pretty confident we are going to start seeing monster analogs show up...some good ones are already there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I like seasons too. My point was this has been a big yr for snow lovers even locally especially when it comes to tracking.. And heck there might even be a rogue April threat with so much cold NW. When it comes to overall winter and not just snow is say this bests 09-10. I very much agree this winter as a season takes 09/10. It's been fun but definitely a long season. Long enough for even me to start looking forward to warmer days and fishing season. Not ready to give up yet and of course I'm a bit excited about the next couple of weeks but when the door closes I'll be satisfied and happy. Last year sucked. Especially at the end. Dragged us through a disgusting early 6 weeks and then getting right just in time for temps to fook us. The whole season left a bad taste. I hated it overall. This year has been a huge payback to winter weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 They're pretty good...we are going to see them improve I think since both the pattern is starting to look even better, and the warmer days will drop off the 6-10 day analog period, as it becomes centered over a better period...I'm pretty confident we are going to start seeing monster analogs show up...some good ones are already there That's good to hear. Trends have been encouraging in the fact that we don't "have" to score in a 3-4 day window now. Wave spacing looks like a repeat of previous patterns. Every 3 days or so. With such a repetitive season it's pretty easy to think the end of the line will be the best chance at a larger storm. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I very much agree this winter as a season takes 09/10. It's been fun but definitely a long season. Long enough for even me to start looking forward to warmer days and fishing season. Not ready to give up yet and of course I'm a bit excited about the next couple of weeks but when the door closes I'll be satisfied and happy. Last year sucked. Especially at the end. Dragged us through a disgusting early 6 weeks and then getting right just in time for temps to fook us. The whole season left a bad taste. I hated it overall. This year has been a huge payback to winter weenies. I'd go so far as to say that the last three seasons have been great. Summer wasn't too hot, fall ended up being a huge surprise when it came to color, and this winter has been awesome, especially for us north and west of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I'd go so far as to say that the last three seasons have been great. Summer wasn't too hot, fall ended up being a huge surprise when it came to color, and this winter has been awesome, especially for us north and west of the cities. surprised you didnt include spring which imo was the nicest spring in my entire life...at least dating back to early 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 surprised you didnt include spring which imo was the nicest spring in my entire life...at least dating back to early 80s Agreed. The entire last 12 months have been about as good as it gets in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 surprised you didnt include spring which imo was the nicest spring in my entire life...at least dating back to early 80s You're right. I should have. I can remember agreeing with you on some posts you made even back then. Hopefully the trend continues through this summer because I abhor heat. I don't mind the typical low 90's with afternoon storms, but high dews, upper 90's, and no storms is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 They're pretty good...we are going to see them improve I think since both the pattern is starting to look even better, and the warmer days will drop off the 6-10 day analog period, as it becomes centered over a better period...I'm pretty confident we are going to start seeing monster analogs show up...some good ones are already there Isn't 2003 already there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Isn't 2003 already there? PD2 is the 2nd analog for the 11-15 day period for the OP euro run from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Some nice storms showing on gefs for wed+/- timeframe and again fri-sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 something showing up day 6.5-7 on the Euro of any consequence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 something showing up day 6.5-7 on the Euro of any consequence? Off in fantasy land, but Euro has the day 7 coastal...1-2" verbatim...gets its act together a tad too late it is a better look than the 1-2" type that just fringes us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Off in fantasy land, but Euro has the day 7 coastal...1-2" verbatim...gets its act together a tad too late it is a better look than the 1-2" type that just fringes us.. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Day 7 Euro 850s....sorry spring lovers http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Off in fantasy land, but Euro has the day 7 coastal...1-2" verbatim...gets its act together a tad too late it is a better look than the 1-2" type that just fringes us.. I was hoping the euro had at least a "close" solution. GEFS had some nice ones. We might be in the game midweek but my gut says later. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 my site went down, but something big and moisture laden was coming at day9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I was hoping the euro had at least a "close" solution. GEFS had some nice ones. We might be in the game midweek but my gut says later. We'll see. same...what is happening on day 9-10...my site went down...does it cut to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Some of the 12z GFS individuals show a pretty large storm Day 6-8...EURO is a fringer. LR looks awesome as well, with a classic large storm March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 You can still get EURO runs for free at ecmwf.int FWIW... Here is 240 hr EURO; 1040 HP to the N.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I was hoping the euro had at least a "close" solution. GEFS had some nice ones. We might be in the game midweek but my gut says later. We'll see. GFS and Euro operational models have liked a storm in the Tues-Wed window for a while, so no reason to believe in this weenie's mind it's still on the table with decent odds attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Holy crap. Big storm at the end of the run. Serious confluence above us. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 same...what is happening on day 9-10...my site went down...does it cut to the west? No. It's forced underneath with the nasty confluence. It's pretty beautiful. Fantasy totals in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 same...what is happening on day 9-10...my site went down...does it cut to the west? 3-5" snow to ZR...complete moisture BOMB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 You can still get EURO runs for free at ecmwf.int FWIW... Here is 240 hr EURO; 1040 HP to the N.... Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_240.gif http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014021912!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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