I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I'm in KU or bust mode. The only warning we have not had was a blizzard warning. The way this winter has been I'm sure we will somehow get one in April. Outside of a hecs bring on spring. Plenty storm and cold signals so Spring is a long way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I live in this area for all four seasons. I want to get my moneys worth and squeeze out every last drop of snow we can get. Plenty of time for warm spring breezes and t-storms. I'm all in. Next Tuesday/Wednesday looks like a decent possibility. Lets get tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's been a productive year and it's late in the season. I'm not that invested in tracking next week yet. I'm pretty sure we have legit threat on our hands but it's too muddy and we're on the front side of a warm spell so I'm not motivated yet. I think I'm losing my edge a little bit. If something is seriously on the radar come Friday I'll be all in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Limiting computer time to 20 hours a day is a good thing. lol- unfortunately it's a tough limit. My work is nothing but computer time broken up by a little phone time. I have 2 screens running and I'm considering a 3rd. My pupils are rectangles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 lol- unfortunately it's a tough limit. My work is nothing but computer time broken up by a little phone time. I have 2 screens running and I'm considering a 3rd. My pupils are rectangles. you go boooooooooy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I can't wait to maybe see an amazing pattern that probably won't deliver. Seems like Wes and HM are on board for a good pattern. That's good enough for me. This time of year, I know we are not going to get an air mass conducive to long duration snow packs, so give me a big snow followed by a warm up. I need < 8" for 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 No doubt. The next transition to spring where it goes from cold to 60 straight days with highs in the 60s and 70s will be the first of my life...so I prefer to enjoy the transition and hope for March snow and then chase the gentle warmth unicorns through the end of May. Then, I will pretend June - August are not happening... March 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 you go boooooooooy Allman! Where u been man? I'm like 10 lbs fatter and 20% greyer since the last time you've been around here. Too busy shovelin up there huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I'm still pissed about 12/10. I need more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OleFalls Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 For the last few years, I have been watching how solar activity affects our weather patterns. But my skills are not comparable to the regulars on this board. I thought maybe a few of you might like to explore the connections. If the models already take this into account, please forgive my ignorance.Last summer, most times after there were significant emission events we seemed to get large well organized storm systems. There seemed to be a rough correlation to what part of Earth was facing the sun during each event's impact. There is a particularly hot period coming up in the next 8 to 16 hours. With your experience, you might be able to see how the emissions change the patterns tomorrow. I watch the Wing Kp Model 24 hour plots daily. When the Kp exceeds 5 for a significant time, it seems to correlate to stronger storms. Here are a few links:http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wingkp/24_hour.htmlhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/alerts_timeline.htmlhttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Wow. This is getting deep. Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Euro ens members still not excited about next week. I checked some metar locations in nc/seva and.the ens aren't supportive of the op run. More than half do show some snow at dca but light overall. About 1.5" on the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Euro control is weak then it warms early march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Winter's going to end and when it does I am happy about it because it's been really good. A 9.0 But if it could continue on in a meaningful way I will be happy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OleFalls Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I forget the propagation delay, but here it comes. The delay is somewhere between 8 minutes and 8 hours depending on what type of radiation or particles are causing the effect on the atmosphere. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 EURO doesn't have the Wednesday bomb, but it shows one of the most incredible setups at Day 10...Obviously all that matters is that we do get the cold air first.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 EURO doesn't have the Wednesday bomb, but it shows one of the most incredible setups at Day 10...Obviously all that matters is that we do get the cold air first.... I have to admit, I agree with you on this one. Just a shame it's day 10. EDIT: OTOH, post Day 10 the Control run takes it to our west.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Wow, ensembles flipped cold through the end of their runs last night. Some 20 below normal stuff in d9-10 range. Next week's chances still not looking impressive overall. Pretty sure we get some snow but not a big dog from what I'm seeing. Still a ways out. Looks like the northern stream energy coming out of Canada will give us something. I'm sure there is phase potential but we won't know much for another 3 days or so. Beyond that looks pretty good for additional chances. Ensemble mean shows 1" liquid d11-15 with below normal temps. March is shaping up to come in like a lion it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 home stretch....once we hit March 4th or so, model/pattern watching in the longer range doesnt matter anymore for me because my climo is so bad after 3/10....then it is just about threats closer in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Wow, ensembles flipped cold through the end of their runs last night. Some 20 below normal stuff in d9-10 range. Next week's chances still not looking impressive overall. Pretty sure we get some snow but not a big dog from what I'm seeing. Still a ways out. Looks like the northern stream energy coming out of Canada will give us something. I'm sure there is phase potential but we won't know much for another 3 days or so. Beyond that looks pretty good for additional chances. Ensemble mean shows 1" liquid d11-15 with below normal temps. March is shaping up to come in like a lion it appears. Fine by me. Big dogs are too much work. 2-4-6 are perfect. Can you deliver one of those with temps about 20 below normal? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Good thing our normal high is almost 50 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Good thing our normal high is almost 50 here. 17 days til DST and 7:00 sunsets. I'm actually excited for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Good thing our normal high is almost 50 here. No doubt. That's why we need -20 departures. If we can pull off and event or 2 before march 10th I'm ready to call it a season. But I'll probably be rewarded with a -nao cold rain second half of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Today feels pretty close to how I think this "epic pattern" will play out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Today feels pretty close to how I think this "epic pattern" will play out for us. The last 3 times people have identified a good-looking pattern we scored 2 widespread warning criteria snowfalls and then a KU, respectively. So I'm not quite sure why we're still being sarcastic about "another great pattern" comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Today feels pretty close to how I think this "epic pattern" will play out for us. You should take some comfort in the fact that the upcoming pattern isn't really epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The last 3 times people have identified a good-looking pattern we scored 2 widespread warning criteria snowfalls and then a KU, respectively. So I'm not quite sure why we're still being sarcastic about "another great pattern" comments. Exactly. The upcoming pattern next week is "ok" but far from epic. I'm not overly thrilled about the mon-fri period. Fast moving flow in the ns and the southern stream is going to have a tough time hooking up with the pv trying to bounce on our heads. It will prob take longer to "get right" and even then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The last 3 times people have identified a good-looking pattern we scored 2 widespread warning criteria snowfalls and then a KU, respectively. So I'm not quite sure why we're still being sarcastic about "another great pattern" comments. That's how it is here. "What have you done for me lately" mentality. Combine that with the "pooh can't wait for spring" birds and the constant reminder of how close we are to the end of winter and it kinda sucks in here. I mean, we only get 90 days out of the year to really enjoy the hobby and people act like the other 75% of the year isn't enough for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The last 3 times people have identified a good-looking pattern we scored 2 widespread warning criteria snowfalls and then a KU, respectively. So I'm not quite sure why we're still being sarcastic about "another great pattern" comments. I am not a met, but it seems to me most of the storms we have had this winter have developed after the supposed "big dog" was scheduled to hit and snuck up on us while people looked 10 days away at the "epic pattern" breaking down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 That's how it is here. "What have you done for me lately" mentality. Combine that with the "pooh can't wait for spring" birds and the constant reminder of how close we are to the end of winter and it kinda sucks in here. I mean, we only get 90 days out of the year to really enjoy the hobby and people act like the other 75% of the year isn't enough for them.When all is said and done we might be tracking winter for 5-6 mo this yr. that's a lengthy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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