snowfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Lets pull this NW........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Wow, euro blows the storm up to 952mb out over the n atlantic south of nova scotia. That's a monster. I guess a big storm signal of sorts even if it's not over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Is that panel from next Tuesday? yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well, hasn't the trend this year been to move storms more NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 CPC d11+ march 1st 1980 analog isn't looking so bad. That storm destroyed nc/seva. And got us pretty good as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Sorry, I had my weenie goggles on for that last post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I don't mean to fill the thread with too much technical talk, but the global state of AAM/tropical forcing best represents late Dec right now. It is no surprise that this warm-shot is coming with what has been unfolding in these other areas. Following the progression, we should be matched nicely to early Jan next week...there was a pretty nice storm 1/2-3, along with the cold then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 see y'all at 1:30 nosleep.PNG Nah, tomorrow or Thursday night is my benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 This is the same storm the GFS has had for a while, so we got that going for us too...I posted it yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 HM, overall setup reminds me of a colder version of Jan 17 1994.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Day 6 JMA has it too, also suppressed, but not as much as the Euro http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Mitch, thats actually a different wave, the energy that the EURO turns into the storm is out in the NW at 144 hours on the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 HM, overall setup reminds me of a colder version of Jan 17 1994.... Are you thinking this will morph into a setup like that? I don't really see the comparison, as it stands now, on the modeling. I think this may trend more similarly to the Jan 2-3, 2014 storm than Jan 17, 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 HM, overall setup reminds me of a colder version of Jan 17 1994.... So I suppose you are expecting -35 to -40 degree departures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I don't mean to fill the thread with too much technical talk, but the global state of AAM/tropical forcing best represents late Dec right now. It is no surprise that this warm-shot is coming with what has been unfolding in these other areas. Following the progression, we should be matched nicely to early Jan next week...there was a pretty nice storm 1/2-3, along with the cold then. HM, any correlation to the strong Kelvin wave pushing East in the Pacific, will it encourage the MJO to reach phase 8 this time ? It is a very strong wave, some have mentioned the strongest in years,and a precursor to the development of El Nino I have noticed as well in time lapse, ocean temps off the coast of Western South American have recently started to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 EURO ens mean looks like definitely picked up on the storm threat, so I'm guessing some of the individuals will show the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 So I suppose you are expecting -35 to -40 degree departures? Today's EURO showed more separation with the shortwave and incoming PV, kind of similar to the GFS run from yesterday that I posted on this thread. I am just commenting on the similarity with the western ridge & how there is a wave SE of an incoming ULL in Canada...If these maps don't look a little similar than maybe I'm in the wrong hobby idk. Here is the 6z GFS from today; Jan 17 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 EURO ens mean looks like definitely picked up on the storm threat, so I'm guessing some of the individuals will show the threat. Better on the means from last night. That's for sure. But the ensembles are still all over the place. Light precip on the 6 hourly panels from hr 168 to 204. There is little consensus about anything imo. Looks good leading into 168. Energy diving down further west of the op run and maybe hooking up with gulf moisture. But overall the run says who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Euro avg. week 2 temp anomaly's. Oof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 18z GFS looks better for this "new" threat, Not sure if it will end up producing a big storm, but the shortwave is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Today's EURO showed more separation with the shortwave and incoming PV, kind of similar to the GFS run from yesterday that I posted on this thread. I am just commenting on the similarity with the western ridge & how there is a wave SE of an incoming ULL in Canada...If these maps don't look a little similar than maybe I'm in the wrong hobby idk. Here is the 6z GFS from today; gfs180.gif Jan 17 94 jan944.gif describing as a colder version was somewhat misleading as the source air mass in 1994 was much more anomalous...I dont think I am going to see a day with a 15 degree high and 0 degree low next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Euro avg. week 2 temp anomaly's. Oof. Toasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 18z GFS is an awesome active run....what an amazing pattern we might see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 18z GFS is an awesome active run....what an amazing pattern we might seeToo bad everyone normal wants it to stay like it was today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Too bad everyone normal wants it to stay like it was today. I cop to enjoying days like today and happy to chase the next big one. Might as well transition to spring with something interesting. What I do not want to chase are highs around 38 with nothing to show for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I cop to enjoying days like today and happy to chase the next big one. Might as well transition to spring with something interesting. What I do not want to chase are highs around 38 with nothing to show for it...Yeah true. The sentiment I heard from everyone today was that they've had enough winter though. Sucks to be them I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah true. The sentiment I heard from everyone today was that they've had enough winter though. Sucks to be them I guess. No doubt. The next transition to spring where it goes from cold to 60 straight days with highs in the 60s and 70s will be the first of my life...so I prefer to enjoy the transition and hope for March snow and then chase the gentle warmth unicorns through the end of May. Then, I will pretend June - August are not happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Too bad everyone normal wants it to stay like it was today. Come on guys. Don't get soft on me. Lets get that raging blizzard. We have plenty of time for boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I'm all in for the march 2nd long duration bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 18z GFS is an awesome active run....what an amazing pattern we might see I can't wait to maybe see an amazing pattern that probably won't deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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