anotherman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The pattern is starting to look really rotten that 1st week of March This is 2/26-2/28 The euro still looks the best...Hoping that storm works out that keeps showing up on the 25th What do you mean rotten? Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 What do you mean rotten? Looks good to me. The pattern is starting to look really rotten that 1st week of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The pattern is starting to look really rotten that 1st week of March Agree. Looks like a window next week that closes and probably re-opens but we fight the clock. Luckily not that much is resolved yet. I don't think op runs beyond 5 days are much use at all (not that they are ever that good at that range but probably worse than usual). We're going to see a new setup every 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Agree. Looks like a window next week that closes and probably re-opens but we fight the clock. Luckily not that much is resolved yet. I don't think op runs beyond 5 days are much use at all (not that they are ever that good at that range but probably worse than usual). We're going to see a new setup every 24 hours. yes.. the ensembles look rotten 1st week of March,..especially Euro ensembles, but not too worried about scoring next week..somehow I think we score something..hopefully not another T-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Cold spring last year wasn't harbinger of intensely hot summer. So hopefully there's no repeat of 1980. Not that I was around for that, but it looks like it was pretty horrible. And I don't need another derecho thank you very much. That was just the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The pattern is starting to look really rotten that 1st week of March Sorry - missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I want to urge caution here with early March and longer-range ensembles. While I agree that what is currently being portrayed for early March is "meh" for snow, I think we are seeing similar issues to what happened in January. With the arrival of the Pacific undercutting the Alaskan block, the data will become rather hostile with day-to-day runs I think. I suppose that is true of any longer-range ensemble at any time, so let me rephrase. I think it will lead to false warm-ups, making things look RNA-like when in reality it is split flow with the Alaskan pipeline available. The little "NAO blip" next week could help out the midweek situation but it could also keep things suppressed (the PV is not in a good spot). Perhaps we will get this one back NW enough, Jan 29th-style. There is nothing exciting yet on the NWP in early March as far as the NAO situation...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I want to urge caution here with early March and longer-range ensembles. While I agree that what is currently being portrayed for early March is "meh" for snow, I think we are seeing similar issues to what happened in January. With the arrival of the Pacific undercutting the Alaskan block, the data will become rather hostile with day-to-day runs I think. I suppose that is true of any longer-range ensemble at any time, so let me rephrase. I think it will lead to false warm-ups, making things look RNA-like when in reality it is split flow with the Alaskan pipeline available. The little "NAO blip" next week could help out the midweek situation but it could also keep things suppressed (the PV is not in a good spot). Perhaps we will get this one back NW enough, Jan 29th-style. There is nothing exciting yet on the NWP in early March as far as the NAO situation...for now. Thanks HM. I posted a day or so ago that I thought ensembles were rushing the pac. It looked to me that undercuttng the ridge seemed too fast but I don't have enough confidence to think my thoughts are sound. I remember seeing a similar breakdown earlier this year that took much longer to come about. Warmups on the ensembles have definitely taken longer to develop and last shorter than when they are first identified as being likely. I think Coastal made an interesting post some time ago in the SNE forum that since the beginning of January you could hug whichever ens suite was colder for the east and be right every time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I want to urge caution here with early March and longer-range ensembles. While I agree that what is currently being portrayed for early March is "meh" for snow, I think we are seeing similar issues to what happened in January. With the arrival of the Pacific undercutting the Alaskan block, the data will become rather hostile with day-to-day runs I think. I suppose that is true of any longer-range ensemble at any time, so let me rephrase. I think it will lead to false warm-ups, making things look RNA-like when in reality it is split flow with the Alaskan pipeline available. The little "NAO blip" next week could help out the midweek situation but it could also keep things suppressed (the PV is not in a good spot). Perhaps we will get this one back NW enough, Jan 29th-style. There is nothing exciting yet on the NWP in early March as far as the NAO situation...for now. Thanks HM. It would funny that right after you type this, the Euro shows a HECS or major storm. Here's hoping anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Am I being a weenie, or does Day 7 look really good on 12z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I want to urge caution here with early March and longer-range ensembles. While I agree that what is currently being portrayed for early March is "meh" for snow, I think we are seeing similar issues to what happened in January. With the arrival of the Pacific undercutting the Alaskan block, the data will become rather hostile with day-to-day runs I think. I suppose that is true of any longer-range ensemble at any time, so let me rephrase. I think it will lead to false warm-ups, making things look RNA-like when in reality it is split flow with the Alaskan pipeline available. The little "NAO blip" next week could help out the midweek situation but it could also keep things suppressed (the PV is not in a good spot). Perhaps we will get this one back NW enough, Jan 29th-style. There is nothing exciting yet on the NWP in early March as far as the NAO situation...for now. I kind of like the undercutting and think the pattern is not so bad in early March. I don't like looking at individual ens mean maps for 12 hr periods at that time range. they can change way too much. I like the 5-day mean maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thanks HM. I posted a day or so ago that I thought ensembles were rushing the pac. It looked to me that undercuttng the ridge seemed too fast but I don't have enough confidence to think my thoughts are sound. I remember seeing a similar breakdown earlier this year that took much longer to come about. Warmups on the ensembles have definitely taken longer to develop and last shorter than when they are first identified as being likely. I think Coastal made an interesting post some time ago in the SNE forum that since the beginning of January you could hug whichever ens suite was colder for the east and be right every time. lol It might be good advice Scott had there. The pattern after day 10 really is the default 2013-14 look this year. Thanks HM. It would funny that right after you type this, the Euro shows a HECS or major storm. Here's hoping anyway... Now that you mention it...midweek is looking um...yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Now that you mention it...midweek is looking um...yeah! You are such a tease. Tell me more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I kind of like the undercutting and think the pattern is not so bad in early March. I don't like looking at individual ens mean maps for 12 hr periods at that time range. they can change way too much. I like the 5-day mean maps. We agree Wes. I think the split flow / undercutting is legitimate but I think the warm-ups are being oversold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It might be good advice Scott had there. The pattern after day 10 really is the default 2013-14 look this year. Now that you mention it...midweek is looking um...yeah! we get fringed...but a more compact, organized solution than has been showing up..here is hoping for a NW trend..it's a nice event for NC/Se VA...DT will probably be honking soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 You are such a tease. Tell me more. It dislodges the PV into the 50-50 position as the midweek trough drops down on the backside. This allows sufficient cold air and a coastal storm to take shape. The model is not complete, but trough is going negative over Appalachians 180-186hr. Could be a near-miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I kind of like the undercutting and think the pattern is not so bad in early March. I don't like looking at individual ens mean maps for 12 hr periods at that time range. they can change way too much. I like the 5-day mean maps. We agree Wes. I think the split flow / undercutting is legitimate but I think the warm-ups are being oversold. hope you both are right...it is a long way off, so I shouldn't be too bearish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It dislodges the PV into the 50-50 position as the midweek trough drops down on the backside. This allows sufficient cold air and a coastal storm to take shape. The model is not complete, but trough is going negative over Appalachians 180-186hr. Could be a near-miss. Thanks HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It dislodges the PV into the 50-50 position as the midweek trough drops down on the backside. This allows sufficient cold air and a coastal storm to take shape. The model is not complete, but trough is going negative over Appalachians 180-186hr. Could be a near-miss. It is, but a much more organized look than its has been showing....long way to go with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 we get fringed...but a more compact, organized solution than has been showing up..here is hoping for a NW trend..it's a nice event for NC/Se VA...DT will probably be honking soon I guess the key here was the PV moving closer toward the 50-50 position, giving the wave room to amplify. The details are of course irrelevant. EPS will, as always, be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 hope you both are right...it is a long way off, so I shouldn't be too bearish... But you are correct that the literal solutions are not great for snow as they stand now. The quick retreat of the PV in combination with the Pacific Parade is allowing models to indicate a warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's an interesting look on the euro op. compact little bowling ball rolling down the ridge through the dakotas. Too bad confluence east squashed amplification. Would be nice to see it roll down about 150 miles west.... Hardly much to worry about. Thinking that a closed h5 low diving down the back of the pv is resolved this far out it precarious. Should be a fun couple of 3 days with ops though. Or not so fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It is, but a much more organized look than its has been showing....long way to go with this one Very true, good point. It appears we are in for another week of model tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I guess the key here was the PV moving closer toward the 50-50 position, giving the wave room to amplify. The details are of course irrelevant. EPS will, as always, be interesting. maybe the PV will drop in sooner, though that could result in a more suppressed solution if it doesn't pull the storm up....6"+ storm for Hampton Roads and Eastern NC....more and more evidence that "something" may be happening on 24-26th range...the evolution of course yet to be determined if it even happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's an interesting look on the euro op. compact little bowling ball rolling down the ridge through the dakotas. Too bad confluence east squashed amplification. Would be nice to see it roll down about 150 miles west.... Hardly much to worry about. Thinking that a closed h5 low diving down the back of the pv is resolved this far out it precarious. Should be a fun couple of 3 days with ops though. Or not so fun. The euro has now been showing a storm on the 25th for about 6-8 straight runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 maybe the PV will drop in sooner, though that could result in a more suppressed solution if it doesn't pull the storm up....6"+ storm for Hampton Roads and Eastern NC....more and more evidence that "something" may be happening on 24-26th range...the evolution of course yet to be determined if it even happens Yeah agreed here. It's also cool that this was a period of interest per your analogs/LR forecast. The other thing on the 12z ECMWF today was how it nudged the PNA ridge further east as the s/w dropped in. This also played a role in the more easterly track. I noticed the GEFS was more reserved, keeping the PNA ridge further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah agreed here. It's also cool that this was a period of interest per your analogs/LR forecast. The other thing on the 12z ECMWF today was how it nudged the PNA ridge further east as the s/w dropped in. This also played a role in the more easterly track. I noticed the GEFS was more reserved, keeping the PNA ridge further west. Thanks, though my overall outlook is close to a disaster... It is going to take just ONE euro run hitting us somewhat flush, and we are going to be sleepless for another 5+ days...maybe tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 see y'all at 1:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The euro has now been showing a storm on the 25th for about 6-8 straight runs... Yep. You know I'm in for whatever. GEFS members had a smattering of solutions. Some had a dominant northern low though. I'm not buying that. The pv is dropping down on all models in some fashion. I would be surprised if some great lakes low walks across the northern tier. I guess there's really not much we can do except wait it out. Euro ens members had some snowy members for the period last night but not that many and only a couple sig snows. I'll see how they look and compare when they come out later. If the signal is growing I would feel better. It's going to be a long week. I'm going to try not to worry much run over run either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 see y'all at 1:30 nosleep.PNG Is that panel from next Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.