North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I won't cheer against but it would crush my soul I am gone 28th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Book it for this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Ggem actually looks like pd3 towards end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Ggem actually looks like pd3 towards end of run idk if I would agree with that analogy, but I'll take this 10 day precip map and cross my fingers http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=240&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en you can get temps, etc. by using the drop screen to the right of the word "MAP" EDIT: those 850 temps are crazy for the end of FEB http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=TT850&hh=240&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z Euro ens 6-10 day analogs from highest to lowest 2.2" 0.1" 0.3" 1.4" none none 0.8" none none 0.1" Then we relax Days 11-15 T none none none none none none none T none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Matt, the both globals are having a tough time figuring out what happens after things amplify next week. Look at the euro ens 5h anomalies d11-15. Run over run they are having a hard time resolving the pac. I'm not so sure having the goa low undercutting the pna/-epo ridge is that believable. By d10 we have the ridge bridge back and the feature remains through the end of the period but the goa/west coast quickly goes to lower heights underneath it. Looks like a rush job in the npac on the means to me. I'm already looking forward to skipping through until thursday+ so we can get a clearer picture. On a side note, the means are pretty wet here d11-15. About 1" precip from what I see. And another side note...control run has a nice snowstorm on march 1st....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Matt, the both globals are having a tough time figuring out what happens after things amplify next week. Look at the euro ens 5h anomalies d11-15. Run over run they are having a hard time resolving the pac. I'm not so sure having the goa low undercutting the pna/-epo ridge is that believable. By d10 we have the ridge bridge back and the feature remains through the end of the period but the goa/west coast quickly goes to lower heights underneath it. Looks like a rush job in the npac on the means to me. I'm already looking forward to skipping through until thursday+ so we can get a clearer picture. On a side note, the means are pretty wet here d11-15. About 1" precip from what I see. And another side note...control run has a nice snowstorm on march 1st....lol.. same look at the euro...lol...I can see why it had some big analogs...obviously the ensembles were not as nuts....split flow, massive +PNA/-EPO ridge, ridging over the Davis Straits...massive confluence...let's do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 the story of the last few mo of torches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 same look at the euro...lol...I can see why it had some big analogs...obviously the ensembles were not as nuts....split flow, massive +PNA/-EPO ridge, ridging over the Davis Straits...massive confluence...let's do it 18z gfs showing the monday possibilities. h5 is kinda crappy for amplification but it's just another run tossing a cookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 the story of the last few mo of torches Some long duration switch went off late last winter. It's like the easy dc heat button is kinda broken. Almost a full year now with no true dc torches we're so used to seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just for fun, the 18z @ 186 is about to do something big IMO...Energy near the Rockies is starting to buckle so to speak, and there is solid confluence across the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Damn, truncation kills it, but it still ends up showing a big storm....Wow what a setup, huge +PNA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Damn, truncation kills it, but it still ends up showing a big storm....Wow what a setup, huge +PNA, There is a massively anomalous PV over the Davis Straits...that isn't a great setup for us here in DC....The Euro looks much better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yea if we can get that PV a bit farther SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I like that look. I also like the look of those temperature maps on the models pages.I think it was only 2 days ago that it was showing torching temperatures in the 8 to 14 day. Now it shows dark blue for the period. And like the others I may be in Miami the first two weeks of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 After all the long tracks this year I'm not going to worry about the details of any op run for probably 3-4+ days. And even then I'm most interested in the Monday potential for now. The only storm this year that had any type of longer lead resolution was the last one and only the euro latched on early. I vote no names ever and no threads outside of 4 days for any threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Euro weeklies say march remains variable. Pretty cold on the means for the conus. Centered more in the middle of.the country but nice -epo reload signal towards the end of.the first week of march. Early signs definitely not pointing towards a warm month here. Eta: pv wobbles all over hudson and east the whole run. -nap showing up but east based. Not that there is much skills at these leads. Coldest air In the nh is over na the whole run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Euro weeklies say march remains variable. Pretty cold on the means for the conus. Centered more in the middle of.the country but nice -epo reload signal towards the end of.the first week of march. Early signs definitely not pointing towards a warm month here. Eta: pv wobbles all over hudson and east the whole run. -nap showing up but east based. Not that there is much skills at these leads. Coldest air In the nh is over na the whole run. sounds like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Congrats Cancun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yea if we can get that PV a bit farther SE... damngood.gif Looking at hour 180, ECMWF and GFS are pretty much in sync with that system dropping down, both right near the Kansas/Missouri line. Need to wait another day or two to get to us here on the east coast with good resolution, and another several days before we're in good prediction range, but here's hoping to another good dumping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The only storm this year that had any type of longer lead resolution was the last one and only the euro latched on early. The Canadian had a pretty good grip on the last storm a week before the event -- I think a lot of people didn't believe it at the time. I could be wrong, but I think UKMET wasn't far behind. The last storm wasn't as much about the Euro pulling ahead of the pack as it was about the GFS falling behind. For some reason the GFS didn't really catch on until three hours after it started snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah, the Euro's been very good on track for the past several storms, though I've noticed with a lot of storms it seems a little light on the liquid precip side compared to what we actually get. Of course when you compare that to the NAM tending to over-do it on the precip...everything evens out! Definitely liking the long term runs tonight! But not staying up for the new Euro - I'll catch it in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 latest GFS model has a nice storm for us on the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 weather bell maps have the biggest impact DC and SE towards the coast. 0Z Euro really had nothing of significance outside of the mountains. latest GFS model has a nice storm for us on the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 latest GFS model has a nice storm for us on the 25t sure isn't a coastal, but then euro op isn't a coastal, which its ensembles are indicating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 How we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Still little resolution next week. Front comes through on Sunday and then it gets muddy. Looks like a possible weak wave across all guidance on mon-tues. Wed-thurs has much more going for it. Overnight and morning ensembles are all pointing towards favorable amplification. PNA spike/-ao dip/nao trending neutral. Euro ensembles show a lot of spread. The members aren't very bullish for d8-10 though. CPC analogs have some events in d8+/d11+. Some include freezing rain. Not a big signal across the pool of analogs. However, late feb/early march 1980 is a top analog. This had a light event followed by well...you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Still little resolution next week. Front comes through on Sunday and then it gets muddy. Looks like a possible weak wave across all guidance on mon-tues. Wed-thurs has much more going for it. Overnight and morning ensembles are all pointing towards favorable amplification. PNA spike/-ao dip/nao trending neutral. Euro ensembles show a lot of spread. The members aren't very bullish for d8-10 though. CPC analogs have some events in d8+/d11+. Some include freezing rain. Not a big signal across the pool of analogs. However, late feb/early march 1980 is a top analog. This had a light event followed by well...you know... One of the best summers evar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 One of the best summers evar. lol Check this out... 5 day euro ens mean from last night for 2/24-3/1 and esrl for the same period in 1980....heh, not perfect but some of the important features are awfully similar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 One of the best summers evar. you mean one of the hottest, most miserable summer evar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The pattern is starting to look really rotten that 1st week of March, so would like to score 2/24 - 3/1 This is 2/26-2/28 The euro still looks the best (left)...Hoping that storm works out that keeps showing up on the 25th..I think cutting to our west would be unlikely...even if it phases early, there would probably be redevelopment pretty far south..as of now all the models showing a weakish 1-4" wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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