frd Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just stumbled upon why this winter has produced and current period remains favorable....we haven't seen the OLR 90 anomaly just east of the dateline (Wes' perfect spot if I recall) since 2/10, It's not as strong as in 2/10, but certainly strong enough. Mitch, you might enjoy reading this. From WSI, goes into detail about OLR, recent Indian Ocean convection and some theories as to the nature of the high latitude ridging this season, why the MJO was not to be believed at times, and it use not as relevant, along with some recent insights into the current retrogression in the NE Pac that is soon about to reverse and why. http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/is-winter-over-sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-for-the-front-half-of-march/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Appreciate it. I spend less time than people think though. Once you know what you're looking for it literally takes less than 20 minutes to digest 2 suites. I'm sure Matt is similar. I can wake up an scan the 0z euro + ens and 6z gfs/gefs before I finish a cup of coffee. I'm glad folks appreciate it on the board. I like voicing thoughts when things look ok but shut up pretty quick when it goes to hell. lol The above is definitely true. Oddly enough, it wasn't even a pressure map that caught my eye on yesterday's 12z Euro. I was making my menu plan for the week and peeking at temperatures trying to pair warm weather food w/ the warmest days and looked ahead. Any time you see a gradient of 40 degrees in 150 miles, you know a storm almost HAS to be nearby. Needless to say, my interest was piqued and it took longer to finish my menu planning and grocery list than I intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It doesn't really explain it, you want the OLR to be negative in the region where you are showing it is positive. A negative OLR means the convection is located in that region. A positive one means there has been less convection than normal there. lol....they changed the colors on the maps!!!! think I'm kidding? I saved this from back in 2/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro has a light event next Mon night into Tuesday. Weak wave running the boundary. 1-3" verbatim. Surface temps just good enough. Much to me resolved. Hinges on being on the right side of temps. There is weak coastal development but well offshore. Ensembles sorta agree. A couple ind member show more significant snow during the d8-10 period. Hopefully things come into better focus by wed-thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro has a light event next Mon night into Tuesday. Weak wave running the boundary. 1-3" verbatim. Surface temps just good enough. Much to me resolved. Hinges on being on the right side of temps. There is weak coastal development but well offshore. Ensembles sorta agree. A couple ind member show more significant snow during the d8-10 period. Hopefully things come into better focus by wed-thurs. GFS has a 6-8" event on 2/26...as you said we'll probably have no real clue until later this week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS has a 6-8" event on 2/26...as you said we'll probably have no real clue until later this week.. Looks like a relatively similar setup to the last storm. Big cold hp dropping down and energy rounding the base. Gets going in TX and heads northeast. Looks like the cold comes in 2 pieces on the gfs. First one cools us down and the second one amplies everything. Hopefully the snowy analogs keep showing on the euro runs. CPC stuff hasn't been encouraging but I haven't looked at today yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like a relatively similar setup to the last storm. Big cold hp dropping down and energy rounding the base. Gets going in TX and heads northeast. Looks like the cold comes in 2 pieces on the gfs. First one cools us down and the second one amplies everything. Hopefully the snowy analogs keep showing on the euro runs. CPC stuff hasn't been encouraging but I haven't looked at today yet. just glancing at euro ensembles from last night, the top 2 analogs for the 6-10 day period were both snowstorms....one big and one moderate but had thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 just glancing at euro ensembles from last night, the top 2 analogs for the 6-10 day period were both snowstorms....one big and one moderate but had thundersnow Excellent. Hopefully it holds as we approach medium range. Looks like the favorable window will be relatively short. Not very impressive on the means after we get a couple days into March. Stupid nao. It's clearly not a year for any stable atlantic help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Friday is outlined by SPC with some possible Severe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Friday is outlined by SPC with some possible Severe! good to get the firs meh out of the way early. so.. meh. lower tn valley looks pretty decent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like Matt may be right....we could be set for 2am bedtimes beginning Wednesday. GFS has a nice event on the 26th still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Excellent. Hopefully it holds as we approach medium range. Looks like the favorable window will be relatively short. Not very impressive on the means after we get a couple days into March. Stupid nao. It's clearly not a year for any stable atlantic help. yes...hate the idea of a reload during the last window of decent climo...MUST score 2/24 - 3/1 Looking more closely at the top 5 analogs for Euro ens, 3 of 5 had snowstorms...and a 4th had a 4" snowstorm just outside of the window..this would be the 2/22-2/26 period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like Matt may be right....we could be set for 2am bedtimes beginning Wednesday. GFS has a nice event on the 26th still. Daylight savings isn't till march 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Daylight savings isn't till march 9 Cool, not sure how that's relevant to what I said though. last time I checked, the Euro long range we'd be looking at wouldn't be out until 1:30am to 1:40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Cool, not sure how that's relevant to what I said though. last time I checked, the Euro long range we'd be looking at wouldn't be out until 1:30am to 1:40 Get your rest right now, it will be a long week of Ji trolling if this does not work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro has a 2-3" event on 2/25..keeps showing up...looks like it could be bigger...a 1004mb low that slides out to the northeast around Wallops island, and never really gets amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 single digit lows on 2/27...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro has a 2-3" event on 2/25..keeps showing up...looks like it could be bigger...a 1004mb low that slides out to the northeast around Wallops island, and never really gets amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 you do NOT want to know the top 12z Euro analog for days 11-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 you do NOT want to know the top 12z Euro analog for days 11-15 yes i do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Feb 12-13 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 you do NOT want to know the top 12z Euro analog for days 11-15 spill it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Top 5 analogs for day 6-10/11-15.....7 of 10 had measurable...and one was just outside the window..not all were big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 yes i do Feb 12-13 2014? spill it 2/16/2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 2/16/2003 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/17-Feb-03.html This guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Look how the Euro has weak ridging over Baffin Island and lower heights over the maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'm worried to death about missing a storm. In Florida March 1 to March. 4:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'm worried to death about missing a storm. In Florida March 1 to March. 4:( HM's window....1st week of March is better than January for IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'm worried to death about missing a storm. In Florida March 1 to March. 4:( I'm in Miami on the 25th and Anaheim on the 7-9...suspenseful!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 HM's window....1st week of March is better than January for IAD I won't cheer against but it would crush my soul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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