Wonderdog Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Fwiw long range Weatherbug already shows a frozen precipitation storm for 24th and 25th. Yeah, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro ens mean has 1036mb high entering the Dakotas at day 8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro ens mean has 1036mb high entering the Dakotas at day 8-9 Matt, I typically focus on slp anomalies on the means. That HP is stout to say the least. Is the strength and placement of the hp a good look for a coastal or are you pointing the depth of the cold in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro ens show lp tracking out of the gulf and up the coast mon-tues next week. At hr 204 the lp anoms are centered just off of oc. There's a lot spread on the precip panels as to be expected but the signal is there at long leads anyways. The means don't show a suppressed look at least. Bob, you are a machine. Thanks for your diligence on tracking these fickle MA storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Matt, I typically focus on slp anomalies on the means. That HP is stout to say the least. Is the strength and placement of the hp a good look for a coastal or are you pointing the depth of the cold in general? both....in this particular instance, we have the opposite of the last storm...but i think that is a better problem to have if you dont want to thread the needle...a way to prevent a storm from cutting without a block, and cold air will pour in during the event...the kind of setup where we would start as light rain/mix at 36 and be ripping fat flakes at 23.....I know people dont like not having the air mass in place, but for late february it is what we want if we don't have that...plus maybe the follow up storm would be the better one...in this instance we are the annoying 38 the afternoon before the event and by the next morning we are 14..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Bob, you are a machine. Thanks for your diligence on tracking these fickle MA storms. His laser sight is top notch. Who needs to track storms on models. Just track Chill.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Bob, you are a machine. Thanks for your diligence on tracking these fickle MA storms. Appreciate it. I spend less time than people think though. Once you know what you're looking for it literally takes less than 20 minutes to digest 2 suites. I'm sure Matt is similar. I can wake up an scan the 0z euro + ens and 6z gfs/gefs before I finish a cup of coffee. I'm glad folks appreciate it on the board. I like voicing thoughts when things look ok but shut up pretty quick when it goes to hell. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 both....in this particular instance, we have the opposite of the last storm...but i think that is a better problem to have if you dont want to thread the needle...a way to prevent a storm from cutting without a block, and cold air will pour in during the event...the kind of setup where we would start as light rain/mix at 36 and be ripping fat flakes at 23.....I know people dont like not having the air mass in place, but for late february it is what we want if we don't have that...plus maybe the follow up storm would be the better one...in this instance we are the annoying 38 the afternoon before the event and by the next morning we are 14..... Ah, makes perfect sense. Timing on the front of a pattern change would mean you want cold source pressing in but not expect to have it in place as things get going. Lead wave running a boundary that is still close by. If the big cold dome was more overhead then we risk any coastal storm running right off the coast south of us. I'll pay more attention to the timing and progression of the artic high this week on the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Appreciate it. I spend less time than people think though. Once you know what you're looking for it literally takes less than 20 minutes to digest 2 suites. I'm sure Matt is similar. I can wake up an scan the 0z euro + ens and 6z gfs/gefs before I finish a cup of coffee. I'm glad folks appreciate it on the board. I like voicing thoughts when things look ok but shut up pretty quick when it goes to hell. lol I appreciate all you regulars on the board. I learn a lot from you guys. I'm just a weenie that has always had a deep love for weather of all types. I lurk because I don't want to get in the way. I get tons of info from this site, and I am planning to become a permanent member. Now, back to lurking I go lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ah, makes perfect sense. Timing on the front of a pattern change would mean you want cold source pressing in but not expect to have it in place as things get going. Lead wave running a boundary that is still close by. If the big cold dome was more overhead then we risk any coastal storm running right off the coast south of us. I'll pay more attention to the timing and progression of the artic high this week on the means. GFS already has it at 132 hours....every piece of model guidance moving forward is going to have High pressure coming south through the plains...we just need some timing...cold air is on the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 hopefully happy hour GFS has a KU this run...I'm ready for some model candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ah, makes perfect sense. Timing on the front of a pattern change would mean you want cold source pressing in but not expect to have it in place as things get going. Lead wave running a boundary that is still close by. If the big cold dome was more overhead then we risk any coastal storm running right off the coast south of us. I'll pay more attention to the timing and progression of the artic high this week on the means. March 1st 2009. Chilly air mass in place for the coastal, then frigid for the ULL in the morning. Many saw heavy snow falling with temps in the low 20's or colder. The air mass in place before the storm wasn't overpowering so the storm was able to turn up instead of go out. This was the storm with sharp cutoff. Basically nothing in Hagerstown, Martinsburg. A lot of areas got more from the ULL then the coastal. There was some mention earlier in the year using 2008/2009 for an analog this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 hopefully happy hour GFS has a KU this run...I'm ready for some model candy Warm on storm 1 but it's there. Storm 2 is a crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 hopefully happy hour GFS has a KU this run...I'm ready for some model candy close enough...6-10" event on 2/27 with a 976mb low over the benchmark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Then a light event on February 30-31st followed by another cutter as the pattern breaks...should be a fun week...1:30 bed times start mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Then a light event on February 30-31st followed by another cutter as the pattern breaks...should be a fun week...1:30 bed times start mid week What dates are we looking at? I see you mentioned 2/27 above... then the Feb 30-31 dates Any others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Then a light event on February 30-31st followed by another cutter as the pattern breaks...should be a fun week...1:30 bed times start mid week Cold stormy run. Storm 1 is close. H5 looks ok. Just need the boundary further south. Considering we have 3 decades worth of model time to get there I'm not writing anything off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 What dates are we looking at? I see you mentioned 2/27 above... then the Feb 30-31 dates Any others? 24th+/- very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 What dates are we looking at? I see you mentioned 2/27 above... then the Feb 30-31 dates Any others? Hendecember 32nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 24th+/- very much in play. Ah okies. As Matt said, sounds like time to start staying up for the EURO prob Wed night Looks like 3 potential "events" that you and Matt are discussing... 24th or so... 27th... and the Feb 30-31 one. BTW, props to both you and Zwyts. I agree with what the people have said before... I learn alot from the two of you even though I post the GGEM alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ah okies. As Matt said, sounds like time to start staying up for the EURO prob Wed night Looks like 3 potential "events" that you and Matt are discussing... 24th or so... 27th... and the Feb 30-31 one. BTW, props to both you and Zwyts. I agree with what the people have said before... I learn alot from the two of you even though I post the GGEM alot I think we just need to be somewhat bullish about the period without committing to any specific storms or dates...that 1st event period is one we should keep our eye on though as we may get another faux -NAO west coinciding with a PNA spike, and an Archimbault -NAO to +NAO event like the last one...HM can go into more detail but these are usually bigger than the +NAO to -NAO events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ah okies. As Matt said, sounds like time to start staying up for the EURO prob Wed night Looks like 3 potential "events" that you and Matt are discussing... 24th or so... 27th... and the Feb 30-31 one. BTW, props to both you and Zwyts. I agree with what the people have said before... I learn alot from the two of you even though I post the GGEM alot The monday'ish event relies heavily on how quickly the cold can get here. Not sure how I feel about our prospects other than watching it and hoping. The 12z gefs was all over the 27th time frame. That prob holds more promise. Or we have to wait until we waste the good pattern and score with some convoluted setup on the 30-31st. Were way too far away to worry much about anything but sleep will likely become optional in less than a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Then a light event on February 30-31st followed by another cutter as the pattern breaks...should be a fun week...1:30 bed times start mid week One one hand, I'm excited....on the other..I'm dreading it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 +PNA/-EPO/Aleutian Low....that's a good setup for late February.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm in. Let's do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm in. Let's do it me too,...long way off but if the PAC breaks down and we have to reload in the 3/2-3/6 period, we start to have serious climo problems,..we need to score...2/24 - 3/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Just stumbled upon why this winter has produced and current period remains favorable....we haven't seen the OLR 90 anomaly just east of the dateline (Wes' perfect spot if I recall) since 2/10, It's not as strong as in 2/10, but certainly strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Just stumbled upon why this winter has produced and current period remains favorable....we haven't seen the OLR 90 anomaly just east of the dateline (Wes' perfect spot if I recall) since 2/10, It's not as strong as in 2/10, but certainly strong enough. It doesn't really explain it, you want the OLR to be negative in the region where you are showing it is positive. A negative OLR means the convection is located in that region. A positive one means there has been less convection than normal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Then a light event on February 30-31st followed by another cutter as the pattern breaks...should be a fun week...1:30 bed times start mid week One one hand, I'm excited....on the other..I'm dreading it 24th+/- very much in play. Bring it home, gentlemen. It's been a great winter but I'm not ready for it to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoudounHeights141 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Long time lurker. Just a little relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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