Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's an interesting look on the means. Really amplified for a couple days. No atlantic help but I could see something happen on the bookends of wax/wane. I'm favoring the latter but very interested in early next week either way. +PNA/-EPO look continues to show up strong last week of February...even with crappy Atlantic, I think shortened wavelengths decrease the chance of something cutting to our west if we have some dig and a southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Speaking of sneaky events, 3/9/96 was definitely sneaky if anyone remembers. Main storm exited the area then the front came through and a wave developed just south and overspread the region. Extremely cold by March standards and most people got 2-6 inches in the early morning hours. Pretty much an unforecasted event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 +PNA/-EPO look continues to show up strong last week of February...even with crappy Atlantic, I think shortened wavelengths decrease the chance of something cutting to our west if we have some dig and a southern stream 12z gefs members show just that. A lot of coastal solutions through the members. Few if any cutters. 2 signals. One in the mon-tues timeframe and then again on thurs-fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Holy crap Matt. That's a nice list. now looking at dates I wasn't as familiar with and teeming with snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Speaking of sneaky events, 3/9/96 was definitely sneaky if anyone remembers. Main storm exited the area then the front came through and a wave developed just south and overspread the region. Extremely cold by March standards and most people got 2-6 inches in the early morning hours. Pretty much an unforecasted event. one of my favorite events. I remember watching radar from Roa slowly building north and snow came in around midnight lasting till about 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 now looking at dates I wasn't as familiar with and teeming with snow events I know it's total lala but it's unusual to have heights and thicknesses so close at this range on the gefs. Usually past d8 or so the look is totally splattered. This is for thurs next week. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I know it's total lala but it's unusual to have heights and thicknesses so close at this range on the gefs. Usually past d8 or so the look is totally splattered. This is for thurs next week. Hmmm... 12gefshr264heights.JPG 12gefshr264.JPG beautiful...all members have western ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 euro has a beautiful setup starting on day 8...1044mb high sliding southeastward over the Dakotas make that 1048mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 euro has a beautiful setup starting on day 8...1044mb high sliding southeastward over the Dakotas make that 1048mb Any southern stream life? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Tx Panhandle to Gulf to east of Myrtle Beach to east of ORF...doesn't quite get going in time..2" for DC....but awesome potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 end of run, 850 0 line runs from Brownsville to New Orleans to jacksonville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Any southern stream life? MDstorm yes...but storm doesn't really amplify in time....3-5" snow for Lynchburg/Roanoke crew or just east of there...always a good spot for us to see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I figure by Tuesday/Wednesday we are tracking a decent event or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro looks great to me. Overruning wave signal and then coastal. Obviously verbatim it doesnt hit the cylinders but it a nice look. I can almost envision a pd2 type of storm with a 1-2 punch. Lol. Just weenieing out a little. Looking forward to ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro looks great to me. Overruning wave signal and then coastal. Obviously verbatim it doesnt hit the cylinders but it a nice look. I can almost envision a pd2 type of storm with a 1-2 punch. Lol. Just weenieing out a little. Looking forward to ensembles. If we really end up with a ridge extending up near the EPO region, some sort of storm in the 2/25/-3/1 range is a virtual lock....could be suppressed or timed poorly or weak, but we'll be tracking something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro looks great to me. Overruning wave signal and then coastal. Obviously verbatim it doesnt hit the cylinders but it a nice look. I can almost envision a pd2 type of storm with a 1-2 punch. Lol. Just weenieing out a little. Looking forward to ensembles. Agreed. Another thing to look forward to down the line are the indications that an incredible height anomaly develops in in SE Canada, then further out we may get some under-cutting energy as well. Looks like phase change as well with NAO, end of the month and early March. Fascinating is the pumping of heights from the developing the precip activity moving from the Indian Ocean to the East in time. If anything this should act to repeat the pattern of the rising heights, supported by the continuing warm pool in the NE Pacific. A rinse and repeat pattern. If we can get the Southern jet involvement/disturbances breaking through with new arctic air mass in place we could get a rare Mid Atlantic targeted SECS, maybe even more. It also appears that confluence this go around may be easier. Just a wag, it looks stormy and cold, as others have mentioned here late month into March. This March may indeed come in like a Lion! I just wonder about suppression, however given this year coming North may be the preferred track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Wow, just looked through the nh panels. That is one amplified look. 3 things we prob don't have to worry about is a cutter, miller b, or lack of cold. Exit stage right is a different story. There are some insane temp departures d9-10 in the Midwest. I know it's overdone but there are -40 departures showing up. Sub zero readings as close by as pa and western md. Cross polar flow FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Worst winter ever. At least 2010 was about to torch at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Worst winter ever. At least 2010 was about to torch at this pt. We should approach 60 thurs-fri. Maybe even mid 60's. Best winter since 02-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 We're going above average this season y'all. I'm already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm gonna get flack for this but, I'm done. Bring on the tornadoes and bendy palms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 We're going above average this season y'all. I'm already there.Bin Laden is dead yo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm gonna get flack for this but, I'm done. Bring on the tornadoes and bendy palms. Nah, no flak. You just won't be happy until April. Maybe later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm gonna get flack for this but, I'm done. Bring on the tornadoes and bendy palms.I guess severe season is fun if you chase, which you/Ian/Ellinwood do. We suck more at severe than we do snow, ha. Storms with minimial lightning, no hail, 30mph gusts, and barely moderate rain that somehow always end up severe warned just don't cut it. Not that I don't enjoy each season for what it has to offer, including tstorms, but it's hard to get too jazzed about legit severe in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 We are due to have one more "epic pattern" totally bust only to then have a rogue storm give us snow after the pattern has supposedly gone bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Nah, no flak. You just won't be happy until April. Maybe laterThanks Deb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Thanks Deb I'm not well versed wirh severe. Does a -nao and backdoor coldfronts in mid/late march produce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I would like to sit outside and have a beer St Patty's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm not well versed wirh severe. Does a -nao and backdoor coldfronts in mid/late march produce? Ideally you'll have cold flood the whole system and keep north winds across the gulf etc. A big fat stable intermountain or west coast ridge is also a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro ens show lp tracking out of the gulf and up the coast mon-tues next week. At hr 204 the lp anoms are centered just off of oc. There's a lot spread on the precip panels as to be expected but the signal is there at long leads anyways. The means don't show a suppressed look at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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