usedtobe Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Not much Atlantic help on the means. If we get a block it will probably be a transient feature. But we've been lucky with those this year overall. I do like the amplified look and time of year. Even a ns vort can blow up with a sharp ridge/trough setup. Everything seems to be pointing towards a -ao at least. Fun year for sure Once the warmth is over the pattern is pretty much the one where we got our clipper type decent snows. Probalby not a KU pattern unless we get a better Atlantic but one that can give us cold and might offer storm chances probalby mostly as clippers but with the potential to get a moderate type snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Once the warmth is over the pattern is pretty much the one where we got our clipper type decent snows. Probalby not a KU pattern unless we get a better Atlantic but one that can give us cold and might offer storm chances probalby mostly as clippers but with the potential to get a moderate type snow. Sounds good to me Wes. With a nice warm spell on tap I'm just going to enjoy the warmth and casually observe the transition back to the window opening. I like energetic clippers. They be fun. And with fast flow we can have an active period and not a one and done if the axis is favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Before the big warmup, the NAM and GFS are both interesting for Monday night. The high to the north is moving out fast, but the time of day seems to allow temperatures to be just cold enough for something other than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Before the big warmup, the NAM and GFS are both interesting for Monday night. The high to the north is moving out fast, but the time of day seems to allow temperatures to be just cold enough for something other than rain. Not unheard of to get a system like this before a major warm up. Could be a quick thump scenario if thing work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Once the warmth is over the pattern is pretty much the one where we got our clipper type decent snows. Probalby not a KU pattern unless we get a better Atlantic but one that can give us cold and might offer storm chances probalby mostly as clippers but with the potential to get a moderate type snow. Have I ever mentioned that I love clippers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm pretty optimistic about the prospect of a late season storm tbh. And not just because I'm always optimistic either. Clues are emerging every day that goes by. Our climo window really doesn't get bad until after March 10th or so. An early march +pna/-ao/-nao can be plenty cold here. I'm in. Chill 4 Prez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Schools remain closed on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 06Z GFS has temps never hitting 50 here the next 16 days. A dirty warmup later this week with rain chances, and a big snow hours 288-336. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 06Z GFS has temps never hitting 50 here the next 16 days. A dirty warmup later this week with rain chances, and a big snow hours 288-336. I'm going to be pretty pissed if our warmup is muted by clouds and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm going to be pretty pissed if our warmup is muted by clouds and drizzle. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm going to be pretty pissed if our warmup is muted by clouds and drizzle.It's mid-Feb in a cold winter. This isn't a flip to a subtropical ridge. It warms up because of a zonal flow across the country with Pacific air. Those are usually damp and cloudy. Guess you might have to wait another month for your sunny 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's mid-Feb in a cold winter. This isn't a flip to a subtropical ridge. It warms up because of a zonal flow across the country with Pacific air. Those are usually damp and cloudy. Guess you might have to wait another month for your sunny 60s. Just because it's been a cold winter doesn't mean one can't be pissed if a warmup gets beat back. Same goes for someone being disappointed if a place 30 miles away doubles their snowfall, even if climo argues for it. I'd like a nice warmup for a few days. We haven't had one nearly all winter, so it'd be nice to have a bit of a break before the pattern reloads at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Hello GFS for Monday.... Snow to rain event possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Well, we're all back here again, looking for the next event. Hope it won't be too long before we can break out into a threat specific thread. Yeah, I saw the GFS for Monday, but that won't hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 All aboard on our search for a March superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 All aboard on our search for a March superstorm I'm pretty sure we'll be tracking something between the 25th-1st too. Get your rest during the torch. Although the torch is kinda going to heck now. Cloudy/rainy now coming into play next weekend. Poor mg. He might blow a gasket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm pretty sure we'll be tracking something between the 25th-1st too. Get your rest during the torch. Although the torch is kinda going to heck now. Cloudy/rainy now coming into play next weekend. Poor mg. He might blow a gasket. I'm close. As long as people don't tell me what to think or how I should feel about a warmup being muted, I'll be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This muted warm up follows the pattern all winter. Warm ups forecast at long leads have underperformed most times. Personally, I'm hoping for a couple nice paste jobs in late Feb. early Mar. Think the chances are better than 50% for a snowny end to winter. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This has been a nice middle of the road winter so far. Have got about 30" so far at my location in Odenton. I've been a weather watcher since out 95/96...very rarely have seen one of these type winter. Maybe 99/00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm close. As long as people don't tell me what to think or how I should feel about a warmup being muted, I'll be OK. Euro says Fri afternoon might be ok. Rain early but highs in the mid 60's. Weekend looks so-so for now. 50's but some cloudy/dreary time verbatim. Far from a washout though. I'm with you here. I want a day or 2 in the mid 60's. Would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Folks, we are now tracking another snowstorm on Monday the 24th ETA: Widespread 4-6" and temps no problem on the panels. Front clears sunday night and a wave rides from TX - tn valley - ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 When Bob talks people listen. Great news. Keep us up to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm pretty sure we'll be tracking something between the 25th-1st too. Get your rest during the torch. Although the torch is kinda going to heck now. Cloudy/rainy now coming into play next weekend. Poor mg. He might blow a gasket. agreed...euro is showing an event on the 24th-25th with a fresh air mass....all guidance is showing west ridging starting that last week.....get fresh air in here, a high in decent place and we can get front-ended with a mediocre track.....I'm going for a 2-4"+ event for last week of February...maybe even 2-24/25....and maybe 2 events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 agreed...euro is showing an event on the 24th-25th with a fresh air mass....all guidance is showing west ridging starting that last week.....get fresh air in here, a high in decent place and we can get front-ended with a mediocre track.....I'm going for a 2-4"+ event for last week of February...maybe even 2-24/25....and maybe 2 events... Euro has a 2 wave idea in lala. First one nice into the fresh airmass. Next one on the heels is zr to rn. I know it's meaningless to split hairs but the setup is nice. Cold hp nosing into a frontal boundary draped to our south. Moisture riding along the boundary. Not a bad way to pad totals and totally believable given the pattern @ h5. Much to change but a nice example of how it could work out. Beyond looks like clipperville. But fast flow and no block means timing a vort. I have a hunch pattern goes variable into march. Just not seeing anything to slow things down. I'm in total #'s pad mode. I could care less if it melts or washes 24 hours after it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro has a 2 wave idea in lala. First one nice into the fresh airmass. Next one on the heels is zr to rn. I know it's meaningless to split hairs but the setup is nice. Cold hp nosing into a frontal boundary draped to our south. Moisture riding along the boundary. Not a bad way to pad totals and totally believable given the pattern @ h5. Much to change but a nice example of how it could work out. Beyond looks like clipperville. But fast flow and no block means timing a vort. I have a hunch pattern goes variable into march. Just not seeing anything to slow things down. I'm in total #'s pad mode. I could care less if it melts or washes 24 hours after it falls. I want to totally stats pad....plus I want another K/U.......Maybe we get another +NAO to -NAO achimbault event when the PNA breaks down which would probably be cold and drier...HM laid out this last cycle pretty well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro says Fri afternoon might be ok. Rain early but highs in the mid 60's. Weekend looks so-so for now. 50's but some cloudy/dreary time verbatim. Far from a washout though. I'm with you here. I want a day or 2 in the mid 60's. Would be nice. We'll see, I guess. I'm not on tilt or anything - I just want some nice temps for a few days. If I get that, I'm OK with going into the freezer for a bit again. Wife's grandfather's funeral is at Arlington on Friday, so it'd be nice if he were sent off with some decent weather! Also, my onion plants show up in a couple weeks, and I'd like to be able to plant them by around March 10. I just need to be able to get into some unfrozen, not-too-soggy ground - temps aren't a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm close. As long as people don't tell me what to think or how I should feel about a warmup being muted, I'll be OK. Just so we're cool, my post this morning wasn't meant to judge your feelings in any way. You live in a great area if you like warm and sunny days in winter. This season though hasn't fit with the typical DC area winter, and the upcoming pattern doesn't look to change that much, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just so we're cool, my post this morning wasn't meant to judge your feelings in any way. You live in a great area if you like warm and sunny days in winter. This season though hasn't fit with the typical DC area winter, and the upcoming pattern doesn't look to change that much, IMO. I like my winter warmups as much as anyone, just as I like snow as much as anyone I know (maybe aside from some folks on here!). Like you said, this is generally a good place to be if you like that. We're cool. No worries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We're cool. No worries! :thumbs up: Sorry to hear of your family's loss. I am also a gardener, but this year I have held off on getting an early start. Just has the feel of a late spring to me. #endbanter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro loves snow. A few inches Monday, more a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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