Ji Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I travel more for work than i used too...i been dodging bullets for years...and planning trips around the models but I will be in Orlando March 2-5 and there isnt anything i can do about this. I have never missed a snowstorm in DC except Nov and Dec 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I travel more for work than i used too...i been dodging bullets for years...and planning trips around the models but I will be in Orlando March 2-5 and there isnt anything i can do about this. I have never missed a snowstorm in DC except Nov and Dec 1989 Were you in South Carolina?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Were you in South Carolina??Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 lol the annual March 4 HM storm. What time frame are you looking at:)? Well, really, late Feb into early March looks favorable again to get both the cold and storms into the area. The stratosphere may favor another NAO response too, which I think I'm leaning towards. I want to see the EPS shift in that direction, though. Ultimately, the tropical Pacific--north Pacific connection should help the NAO out again I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 One more panel. GEFS mean 850's. Euro ens basically identical. It can snow in late feb early march with this look. I'm in. gefs850s.JPG Most really good winters have one good last hurrah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It'll be interesting to see if there are any changes in the NWS 6/10 and 8/14 day forecasts today. As of tomorrow, they both showed above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The confidence is the 6-10 day forecast is unusually high (5 of 5). If their forecast doesn't change, Is there something you're seeing that they missed or vice versa. ... or are you really talking about the first week of March (day 15 and beyond)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It'll be interesting to see if there are any changes in the NWS 6/10 and 8/14 day forecasts today. As of tomorrow, they both showed above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The confidence is the 6-10 day forecast is unusually high (5 of 5). If their forecast doesn't change, Is there something you're seeing that they missed or vice versa. ... or are you really talking about the first week of March (day 15 and beyond)? D6-10 is basically a lock. And it looks pretty warm. We could have highs in the mid 60's next weekend. D8-14 includes some of the really warm days so on the means at this lead the d8-14 will likely average above normal. But a relatively abrupt cool down around the 24th-26th has decent support at long leads. We'll see how it goes. Ensembles have been showing this cooler period for a few days now and not backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 D6-10 is basically a lock. And it looks pretty warm. We could have highs in the mid 60's next weekend. D8-14 includes some of the really warm days so on the means at this lead the d8-14 will likely average above normal. But a relatively abrupt cool down around the 24th-26th has decent support at long leads. We'll see how it goes. Ensembles have been showing this cooler period for a few days now and not backing down. That's what I'm looking for, a stretch of warmth next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That's what I'm looking for, a stretch of warmth next weekend. that just cost you your status of winter weather expert ice fishing is all you should be concerned about this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm in on the warmth too, Wes. Every active storm period has been followed by one this year. This is the first one I'm looking forward too. And it looks to get out of the way before the snow climo window closes. Wouldn't mind one more track/event before we can call it a wrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm in on the warmth too, Wes. Every active storm period has been followed by one this year. This is the first one I'm looking forward too. And it looks to get out of the way before the snow climo window closes. Wouldn't mind one more track/event before we can call it a wrap. I'm 100% in this camp. This warmup will be our first good one since December, and it'll come at the perfect time - late enough to get real warmth in but early enough to allow for a window of opportunity on the back end. Give us one last shot for a city and near-burb (and Wes) special and I'd be ready to call this winter a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 LOL- euro weeklies reload the -epo in early march and have us below normal temp wise for the first 17 days of the month. -ao signal there too but not strong. Not that any feature can have a strong signal in 2-4 week range. -EPO signal is kinda strong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 LOL- euro weeklies reload the -epo in early march and have us below normal temp wise for the first 17 days of the month. -ao signal there too but not strong. Not that any feature can have a strong signal in 2-4 week range. -EPO signal is kinda strong though. One more Archambault event to close out the season around my birthday (14th)? Beware the Ides of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm over this storm...I'm desperate for another K/U... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 LOL- euro weeklies reload the -epo in early march and have us below normal temp wise for the first 17 days of the month. -ao signal there too but not strong. Not that any feature can have a strong signal in 2-4 week range. -EPO signal is kinda strong though. Bob,how about the last week in FEB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Bob,how about the last week in FEB? Ensembles look cooler than normal and amplified. EC trough last 3-4 days of the month. But it comes on the heels of a torch so it's hard to say. We'll prob get poured on before the pattern change. Then it takes some time for things to go right. I really have no other thoughts other than we will move from a pattern that has a zero % chance of producing snow into one that will at least have enough cold around. Storm wise is anyone's guess. Keep an eye on the AO. Ensembles are trending neg down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ensembles look cooler than normal and amplified. EC trough last 3-4 days of the month. But it comes on the heels of a torch so it's hard to say. We'll prob get poured on before the pattern change. Then it takes some time for things to go right. I really have no other thoughts other than we will move from a pattern that has a zero % chance of producing snow into one that will at least have enough cold around. Storm wise is anyone's guess. Keep an eye on the AO. Ensembles are trending neg down the line. thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ji is going to love this one (an old joke from a long time ago) but...I'm seeing signs for another nor'easter/active period in early March. Well, really, late Feb into early March looks favorable again to get both the cold and storms into the area. The stratosphere may favor another NAO response too, which I think I'm leaning towards. I want to see the EPS shift in that direction, though. Ultimately, the tropical Pacific--north Pacific connection should help the NAO out again I think. LOL- euro weeklies reload the -epo in early march and have us below normal temp wise for the first 17 days of the month. -ao signal there too but not strong. Not that any feature can have a strong signal in 2-4 week range. -EPO signal is kinda strong though. There are a bunch of snowstorm showing up on analogs.....11-15 days looks cold with potentially a +PNA and -NAO...winter is far from over....looking forward to another KU that is an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Big Changes on the 8-14 Temp. outlook. Now looks normal to slightly below with stormy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 There are a bunch of snowstorm showing up on analogs.....11-15 days looks cold with potentially a +PNA and -NAO...winter is far from over....looking forward to another KU that is an all snow event I'm pretty optimistic about the prospect of a late season storm tbh. And not just because I'm always optimistic either. Clues are emerging every day that goes by. Our climo window really doesn't get bad until after March 10th or so. An early march +pna/-ao/-nao can be plenty cold here. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Don't be fooled by this weeks warm up. Its very normal to get these type of temps in Feb.. The end of the month and early March could get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised if the early next week system doesn't trend to our south far enough putting us into a more snow scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised if the early next week system doesn't trend to our south far enough putting us into a more snow scenario About a third of the gefs members agree with this. Nothing fancy or anything. Just enough cold leftover to give it a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm at 12.5 on they year, give me a 8 inch storm, slightly above climo and I'm 100% happy. Nice winter in that no real "dead" times-- where we waited for signals for the start of a pattern change. Yesterday was so close to epic, but not quite there. 10.5 is still a nice event. The deformation- well, Roanoke had 6-10 from it, we had 1-2. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 About a third of the gefs members agree with this. Nothing fancy or anything. Just enough cold leftover to give it a chance. hmmm, didn't know that.....still no sleep in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 hmmm, didn't know that.....still no sleep in sight Sleep deprivation can be tough. When you start scheduling your clients on Zulu time, you know you need a nap. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 hmmm, didn't know that.....still no sleep in sight Nah, get your sleep. Best case scenario isn't worth missing 15 minutes of shuteye. At least from how it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 hmmm, didn't know that.....still no sleep in sight Doubtful at your age, you're missing many naps Mitch. I know it takes one to know one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm pretty optimistic about the prospect of a late season storm tbh. And not just because I'm always optimistic either. Clues are emerging every day that goes by. Our climo window really doesn't get bad until after March 10th or so. An early march +pna/-ao/-nao can be plenty cold here. I'm in. Game is on probably by the 25th...not sure about the Atlantic, but we should have a ridge in the west sometime during the last week of February and probably not a transient one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Game is on probably by the 25th...not sure about the Atlantic, but we should have a ridge in the west sometime during the last week of February and probably not a transient one... Not much Atlantic help on the means. If we get a block it will probably be a transient feature. But we've been lucky with those this year overall. I do like the amplified look and time of year. Even a ns vort can blow up with a sharp ridge/trough setup. Everything seems to be pointing towards a -ao at least. Fun year for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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