usedtobe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's from Paul Kocin/Louis Uccellini's East Coast Snowstorms, Vol II I worked that low....remember it well. It had an east based negative NAO but didn't have much cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I worked that low....remember it well. It had an east based negative NAO but didn't have much cold air to work with. Wes, I remember hearing that you and (perhaps?) Bruce S. working that event. Hopefully if you were on day shifts you got into work early that day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wes, I remember hearing that you and (perhaps?) Bruce S. working that event. Hopefully if you were on day shifts you got into work early that day! Meanwhile, I was a junior in HS on Thursday, Jan 22 1987, hoping like mad schools in Fairfax County would close that day since I was ill-prepared for a history test. Snow started in the Springfield area ~ 5am, and it only got better from there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nam def won't be an inland runner...maybe a bit too east even @ 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nam def won't be an inland runner...maybe a bit too east even @ 84 Don't think it looks too bad. Like the positioning of the h5 features out to 66 or so, after that its the NAM, but it looks decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Don't think it looks too bad. Like the positioning of the h5 features out to 66 or so, after that its the NAM, but it looks decent to me. Oh, its not bad at all. I just dont think it will be all inland like the Euro was, which is a good thing. Mets down in the SE seems to think it will phase up nice after 84..I don't know enough to say that....so I didnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Meanwhile, I was a junior in HS on Thursday, Jan 22 1987, hoping like mad schools in Fairfax County would close that day since I was ill-prepared for a history test. Snow started in the Springfield area ~ 5am, and it only got better from there.. I was on evenings and forecast 8-12 for dca, the shift relieving me made fun of me for making the forecast and then followed up with the same general forecast. Unfortunately, I couldn't sell the local forecast office on the storm being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Don't think it looks too bad. Like the positioning of the h5 features out to 66 or so, after that its the NAM, but it looks decent to me. the GL low really isn't one as it has shot north into Canada 850 temps at 84 don't look bad either with reasonably cold air left around us and looks like maybe a bit of a fresh supply poised to our NW, but I could be wrong with that part http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 sorta looks OK to me http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Randy, I understand you now. Phasing post 84, despite it being fantasy range, looks pretty likely. Where it goes from there is up in the air, but its progress in the right direction. Mitch, the temperatures do look respectable honestly. The GL low has become less of a factor, which as you said is because of its further NW positioning. There could be some newer cold in bleeding in via that image, however the antecedent airmass isn't all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Oh, its not bad at all. I just thought think it will be all inland like the Euro was, which is a good thing. Mets down in the SE seems to think it will phase up nice after 84..I don't know enough to say that....so I didnt Randy, it's a nice run. The 500 vort still has the strongest winds on the west side so it will continue to sharpen up. If you look at 700mb look how far north the confluence is between the northern stream line running almost due e-w and the southern stream that has the contour line with a much more north-south orientation. That confluence usually is how far the precip will get north so even if the trough did not sharpen up any more (and it should), I think we'd still see snow. The only downside is it's the 84 hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was on evenings and forecast 8-12 for dca, the shift relieving me made fun of me for making the forecast and then followed up with the same general forecast. Unfortunately, I couldn't sell the local forecast office on the storm being snow. That was quite the call. All the local Baltimore mets were absolutely convinced of a changed to rain. Most had 1-2 then rain and the most bold forecast I remember was 2-4 then rain. I lived 10 miles nw of the city back then and remember temps falling into the 23-24 degree range at the height of the storm. Totals ranged from 12-16 around my area. I can remember some intense bands with thunder once the storm got cranking. One of my favorites for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Randy, it's a nice run. The 500 vort still has the strongest winds on the west side so it will continue to sharpen up. If you look at 700mb look how far north the confluence is between the northern stream line running almost due e-w and the southern stream that has the contour line with a much more north-south orientation. That confluence usually is how far the precip will get north so even if the trough did not sharpen up any more (and it should), I think we'd still see snow. The only downside is it's the 84 hr NAM. Hey, if you put the good stamp on it, that's all I need. I'm all in. And yeah, I just saw the h5 map with the strong energy on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42789-february-12-13-storm/ Storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hey, if you put the good stamp on it, that's all I need. I'm all in. And yeah, I just saw the h5 map with the strong energy on the backside. Wes sure is right. It's a really good run. H5 and h7 look prime for a true coastal. But it's the nam.....but it actually has support for some sort of similar evolution. I should be more excited than I am. I probably won't be all in until every model shows the same thing and snow is included in our forecast. One thing I'm not seeing is a big risk for ots. Could happen but trends are taking that away every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That was quite the call. All the local Baltimore mets were absolutely convinced of a changed to rain. Most had 1-2 then rain and the most bold forecast I remember was 2-4 then rain. I lived 10 miles nw of the city back then and remember temps falling into the 23-24 degree range at the height of the storm. Totals ranged from 12-16 around my area. I can remember some intense bands with thunder once the storm got cranking. One of my favorites for sure. that was a great storm, even for Glen Burnie I remember the thunder too I was listening to Bob Ryan back then and when he got excited...well, you knew it was going to be big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 that was a great storm, even for Glen Burnie I remember the thunder too I was listening to Bob Ryan back then and when he got excited...well, you knew it was going to be big Exactly! During the 11 pm broadcast that night before (Wed), he went ahead and upped his forecast amounts to 5-10". That's when I knew this was going to be a big deal. For someone who didn't live in the area prior to August '83 (i.e. missed out on 02/11/83), I was waiting a long time for a snow event with accums averaging in the double digits. I.E. a Miller A that didn't have rain. The entire DMV region in fact had waited 4 years for that one. Hmmm, Feb 5-10 2010 was 4 years ago now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 that was a great storm, even for Glen Burnie I remember the thunder too I was listening to Bob Ryan back then and when he got excited...well, you knew it was going to be big On the contrary to Bob Ryan was Norm Lewis here locally. I can remember like yesterday him saying anything that accumulates will be all washed away by mid-afternoon. Baltimore County schools were closed for over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was on evenings and forecast 8-12 for dca, the shift relieving me made fun of me for making the forecast and then followed up with the same general forecast. Unfortunately, I couldn't sell the local forecast office on the storm being snow. I enjoy those stories-- that and PD1 where the moon came out. It just captures the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Exactly! During the 11 pm broadcast that night before (Wed), he went ahead and upped his forecast amounts to 5-10". That's when I knew this was going to be a big deal. For someone who didn't live in the area prior to August '83 (i.e. missed out on 02/11/83), I was waiting a long time for a snow event with accums averaging in the double digits. I.E. a Miller A that didn't have rain. The entire DMV region in fact had waited 4 years for that one. Hmmm, Feb 5-10 2010 was 4 years ago now... I was in Wilmington, DE At 5pm the Ws Watch was changed to an advisor with 1-2 inches then rain. Early, like 8pm was updated to Warning, with 4 inches then sleet and rain. Next morning was 6-8, may mix, 2 hours later it was 8-10, possible mix. After the first 6 inches, it was bumped to a foot. We had a little sleet or rimed snow mid afternoon, but it didn't last long and we had 12.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I enjoy those stories-- that and PD1 where the moon came out. It just captures the excitement. The stories make the storms legendary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On the contrary to Bob Ryan was Norm Lewis here locally. I can remember like yesterday him saying anything that accumulates will be all washed away by mid-afternoon. Baltimore County schools were closed for over a week. that's because Norm Lewis was not a degreed met, rather a "TV Personality" idk if you knew but starting in the early 90's he also had a Home Inspection company on the side because he was in construction for years before getting into TV in Florida I know because he used to use the printers next to my office and came in my office one day and we chatted he was living in Pasadena at the time but I know he moved to N Balt. Co. in the late 90's I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The stories make the storms legendary. We love these types of storms because they overperform. Honestly, those end up being our favs. This year's a good example, even with the Miller B types. Jan 2nd was GREAT IMBY, at 5.25 inches, because that was higher than the original forecast. I got 5" on the level with the 1/21 event, which I was "meh" because it was so cold and felt we shoulda/coulda gotten more (forecast was for 6-8 IMBY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 that's because Norm Lewis was not a degreed met, rather a "TV Personality" idk if you knew but starting in the early 90's he also had a Home Inspection company on the side because he was in construction for years before getting into TV in Florida I know because he used to use the printers next to my office and came in my office one day and we chatted he was living in Pasadena at the time but I know he moved to N Balt. Co. in the late 90's I believe No, actually I didn't know that. I thought he eventually became a degreed met but I guess not. Nonetheless he had a long run on local TV. He started on WBAL and finished at WMAR. Looking back at those years from the late 70's through early 90's the Baltimore media market had way too many "TV Personalities" and not nearly enough legit talented mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The stories make the storms legendary. Legendary, yes. As in: figments of a long-past era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Unfortunately, the pattern really looks bad for snow after the Wed night /Thur storm. A positive EPO and a positive NAO and probably. The pattern is one that is below average for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Unfortunately, the pattern really looks bad for snow after the Wed night /Thur storm. A positive EPO and a positive NAO and probably. The pattern is one that is below average for snow. If we do get something Wednesday it could get me to climo so let it torch. Weak Nina winter wasn't supposed to do that well so no complaining form me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 You guys should want to keep me starting these long range threads. At least its not boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like we have a week much like the last one after the next 'event' - clipper and maybe some back-end clipper love - then we're done for the forseeable future with a warm, flat, pac flow, from next Wednesday on. Taking the GFS verbatim anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol...GEM for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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