February Medium/Long Range Disco 2

[yoda]

00z GGEM ensemble mean is decent enough at 96 and 108... 850s are cold enough on both frames

[yoda]

SOUNDS like EPS mean is much better for us at 108... MSLP is about 50 miles E of Ocean City then... can anyone else confirm?  Going by a NYC region poster description

 

EDIT:  Looks to me like it passes offshore going by us... by like 50-100 miles... 850s look okay... going to have to wait for zwyts or Bob Chill to confirm

[dsnowman]

The 6z GFS is probably the best run in 2-3 days. It has the perfect set-up for snow in the DC area. It is a little further east than last nights Euro and keeps more cold air in place. It just may be a little too far east at this point for big snows (we get fringed), so a blend of the Euro and GFS and we might have something for Wed/Thurs.

[PDIII]

The 6z GFS is probably the best run in 2-3 days. It has the perfect set-up for snow in the DC area. It is a little further east than last nights Euro and keeps more cold air in place. It just may be a little too far east at this point for big snows (we get fringed), so a blend of the Euro and GFS and we might have something for Wed/Thurs.

Yes... it definitely caved... I was just comparing 6Z to 12Z from yesterday and they are worlds apart... It looks to me like it is a thread the needle type event. 

[PDIII]

All the other models are too east though...maybe a nice compromise at the end ?

Hey ji... look at the GFS... If we could blend them we are in the money... the problem is is that both GFS and the Euro are trending west and wetter... if the trend keeps going like this, Ohio is gonna get our snow storm...

 

you know what thinking about it.. the problem is not the trend.  The problem is lack of cold air.... it is gonna need to be the perfect track.. F that S.  I done waiting for that... its February.. I'd rather have Indian summer and booty shorts. 

 

why cant we just have a real bona fide snow storm? Like with a block and sh$% load of moisture... why does that only happen like once every six years? This is like watching paint dry.

[CAPE]

A more amped up wave is going to likely track up right on the coast or inland, with no block and the high sliding out. Given the progressive pattern I would rather see a weaker flatter wave move just to the south or something a bit weaker moving ene tracking off the coast, I doubt the 0z Euro op will verify as it really does not fit the pattern. Hopefully it trends weaker and further east. Still dont like the overall set up. Likely going to have to be pretty far inland to not end up 40 and rain.

[North Balti Zen]

I see the complainers are up early. Bottom line, gfs caved to the euro and we still have a chance at seeing some snow this week. That's a good thing.

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[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

yes....one of those 0.02" snow events with a low over Lake Ontario

Wait for the 16th - 17th timeframe.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I see the complainers are up early. Bottom line, gfs caved to the euro and we still have a chance at seeing some snow this week. That's a good thing.

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They're like leeches.....sucking the blood out of anything they can attach themselves to.

[CAPE]

They're like leeches.....sucking the blood out of anything they can attach themselves to.

I dont see a bunch of complaining, mostly model assessment- particularly the 0z Euro op. Its a coastal hugger and now warmer than most other guidance, so there would be more rain esp I-95 east after some front end snow. Its too amped given the pattern and wont verify imo.

[psuhoffman]

When is the last time Any of us got 4-5 inches and then it turned to heavy rain in same storm . March 1994 ?

i got 5" in a dec 2003 storm that was washed away totally by an inch of rain following it in Herndon va.

[North Balti Zen]

Re: complaining....as between the euro and the gfs battle, it appears the euro has the upper hand. That's really good. As regards specific runs, I am not aware of any person on here who is sold that this is a snow only snow bomb. In this set-up, some snow at some point feels like a win. That's still on the table this morning. So, yeah, some of the model analysis is coming off like whining this AM.

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[Heisy]

Way out of its range, but not a bad start

 

[mitchnick]

this was 84 hrs on the 6Z NAM....it too has come around

forget the details, it has a storm and that's movement towards something

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[mitchnick]

Euro ensemble mean SLP and 850 temps Day 4:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=96&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Day 5:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=120&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[Bob Chill]

EPS is solid. Track up the coast and off of OC. 850's moved a bit east @ hr 108 compared to 120 yesterday afternoon. 850 line runs just west of 95 and not along the blue ridge but plenty of precip before then. All other panels are fine. About .75 - .80 for DCA on the means.

Another solid run and now the gfs is moving in. heh. I know we're going to mix. Please let this one happen. We are almost certainly flipping warm after PD.

[Ji]

EPS is solid. Track up the coast and off of OC. 850's moved a bit east @ hr 108 compared to 120 yesterday afternoon. 850 line runs just west of 95 and not along the blue ridge but plenty of precip before then. All other panels are fine. About .75 - .80 for DCA on the means.

Another solid run and now the gfs is moving in. heh. I know we're going to mix. Please let this one happen. We are almost certainly flipping warm after PD.

Euro control was a near perfect solution

[Bob Chill]

Euro control was a near perfect solution

 

 

 

I saw it. I saved it for you. lol

 

 

6z gefs is very euro like. Mostly solutions show coastals off of obx with varying intensity. Most get us into the precip on the nw side. This is good. 

 

 

[mdsnowlover]

EPS is solid. Track up the coast and off of OC. 850's moved a bit east @ hr 108 compared to 120 yesterday afternoon. 850 line runs just west of 95 and not along the blue ridge but plenty of precip before then. All other panels are fine. About .75 - .80 for DCA on the means.

Another solid run and now the gfs is moving in. heh. I know we're going to mix. Please let this one happen. We are almost certainly flipping warm after PD.

like your passion for what your doing, 

[mitchnick]

EPS is solid. Track up the coast and off of OC. 850's moved a bit east @ hr 108 compared to 120 yesterday afternoon. 850 line runs just west of 95 and not along the blue ridge but plenty of precip before then. All other panels are fine. About .75 - .80 for DCA on the means.

Another solid run and now the gfs is moving in. heh. I know we're going to mix. Please let this one happen. We are almost certainly flipping warm after PD.

end of the pattern storm....they can be the best

[Ji]

We can score Sunday also before the warm

[CAPE]

EPS is solid. Track up the coast and off of OC. 850's moved a bit east @ hr 108 compared to 120 yesterday afternoon. 850 line runs just west of 95 and not along the blue ridge but plenty of precip before then. All other panels are fine. About .75 - .80 for DCA on the means.

Another solid run and now the gfs is moving in. heh. I know we're going to mix. Please let this one happen. We are almost certainly flipping warm after PD.

Wasn't much of a warmup on the 0z run of the GFS. Appears we will warm, but wouldn't surprise me if it was a 5-6 day deal and then pretty cold again for early March.

[Huffwx]

NAM has a little support with that band running up tomorrow up to 460 or so. Would be a nice appetizer. 

[Heisy]

There's northern stream energy phasing in with the southern vort, the 00z EURO phased this pretty fast which is why it was pulled inland. Need to keep an eye on it on future runs...The 12z NAM is farther south with this northern energy. A lot of pieces have to come together for this one, but I do think at the very worst we'll see a snow to rain solution. 

 

 

[WxMan1]

I'm not often times a big fan of analogs this far out...but even yesterday (before looking it up) I noticed some similarity to the first Jan 1987 Nor'Easter (Jan 22) in that [a] we've got a northern stream low somewhere upstream -- in the '87 case it was in the GL which is typically BAD for our area, especially when  we've got the surface high moving east of the Hudson Valley, and especially off the coast.

 

I remember during the forecast process prior to the first '87 storm that we were all concerned about the cold air hanging in because of the aforementioned factors.  Well, this was an example where it *can* happen.  This go around it would appear we'll may a stronger high (more cold air potential) moving off the coast, but at the same time, the pressure with the low may not be as low by the time it reaches the mid Atlantic coast.  I think if given a choice we'd all take the latter (a stronger southern stream low in this case would have a better potential to be an inland runner and more of a snow to mix to rain scenario).  Still a Miller A scenario on the table though, and we've got to like that.

 

I still think that if we can keep the northern stream low west of the GL (i.e northern Plains or Upper Mississippi Valley), we've got the best potential for a sharpening deformation wedge in between this and the coastal system...to a point where we'd hope that the southern stream low track is along or just off the mid Atlantic coast.  

 

We've got a chance folks...  

[DDweatherman]

I'm not often times a big fan of analogs this far out...but even yesterday (before looking it up) I noticed some similarity to the first Jan 1987 Nor'Easter (Jan 22) in that [a] we've got a northern stream low somewhere upstream -- in the '87 case it was in the GL which is typically BAD for our area, especially when we've got the surface high moving east of the Hudson Valley, and especially off the coast.

I remember during the forecast process prior to the first '87 storm that we were all concerned about the cold air hanging in because of the aforementioned factors. Well, this was an example where it *can* happen. This go around it would appear we'll may a stronger high (more cold air potential) moving off the coast, but at the same time, the pressure with the low may not be as low by the time it reaches the mid Atlantic coast. I think if given a choice we'd all take the latter (a stronger southern stream low in this case would have a better potential to be an inland runner and more of a snow to mix to rain scenario). Still a Miller A scenario on the table though, and we've got to like that.

I still think that if we can keep the northern stream low west of the GL (i.e northern Plains or Upper Mississippi Valley), we've got the best potential for a sharpening deformation wedge in between this and the coastal system...to a point where we'd hope that the southern stream low track is along or just off the mid Atlantic coast.

We've got a chance folks...

What book is that out of? Its awesome.

[WxMan1]

What book is that out of? Its awesome.

It's from Paul Kocin/Louis Uccellini's East Coast Snowstorms, Vol II

[usedtobe]

I like what I see on the 60 NAM.  I nice low just northeast of maine to supply some confluence.  it's a transient feature but the nam actually extended it south a little on this run which I think is better for holding in some cold.   Behind the vort in MT there is ridging so it should dig. Finally, the embrionic low looks to be in the gulf of mexico.

[stormtracker]

I'm not often times a big fan of analogs this far out...but even yesterday (before looking it up) I noticed some similarity to the first Jan 1987 Nor'Easter (Jan 22) in that [a] we've got a northern stream low somewhere upstream -- in the '87 case it was in the GL which is typically BAD for our area, especially when  we've got the surface high moving east of the Hudson Valley, and especially off the coast.

 

I remember during the forecast process prior to the first '87 storm that we were all concerned about the cold air hanging in because of the aforementioned factors.  Well, this was an example where it *can* happen.  This go around it would appear we'll may a stronger high (more cold air potential) moving off the coast, but at the same time, the pressure with the low may not be as low by the time it reaches the mid Atlantic coast.  I think if given a choice we'd all take the latter (a stronger southern stream low in this case would have a better potential to be an inland runner and more of a snow to mix to rain scenario).  Still a Miller A scenario on the table though, and we've got to like that.

 

I still think that if we can keep the northern stream low west of the GL (i.e northern Plains or Upper Mississippi Valley), we've got the best potential for a sharpening deformation wedge in between this and the coastal system...to a point where we'd hope that the southern stream low track is along or just off the mid Atlantic coast.  

 

We've got a chance folks...  

:applauds:

[stormtracker]

I like what I see on the 60 NAM.  I nice low just northeast of maine to supply some confluence.  it's a transient feature but the nam actually extended it south a little on this run which I think is better for holding in some cold.   Behind the vort in MT there is ridging so it should dig. Finally, the embrionic low looks to be in the gulf of mexico.

 

 

Good news!   Thanks for being on the show last night btw Wes.  Lots of folks enjoyed you..especially your quick reply to me question about you staying up for the GFS