Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:14 AM, stormtracker said: Yeah, because we had a radio show before 12/19/2009, 2/5/2010, 2/7/2010 and 1/26/2011 and we missed all of those. Good post.And a whole lot of busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:20 AM, Ian said: And a whole lot of busts Thanks Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:21 AM, stormtracker said: Thanks Ian.Don't be superstitious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:04 AM, Ian said: I've decided to hug the euro I hate it when it comes that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:20 AM, Ian said: And a whole lot of busts quit being tit for tat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 new SREF is absolutely uninspiring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:23 AM, mitchnick said: mitchnick, on 08 Feb 2014 - 8:23 PM, said:new SREF is absolutely uninspiring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:22 AM, Ian said: Don't be superstitious. lol, im not..that's the point. I was trying to dispel the stupid myth of some Radio show curse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:25 AM, stormtracker said: lol, im not..that's the point. I was trying to dispel the stupid myth of some Radio show curseI think it's more a DC curse than a radio curse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 But anyway I'm hugging the euro so Snoooiooooooooow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:27 AM, Ian said: I think it's more a DC curse than a radio curse. We're not going to get anything anyway, so no curse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:31 AM, stormtracker said: We're not going to get anything anyway, so no curse Maybe its the reverse of the curse so that we will actually get something when usually we are in line to get something and the radio show curse in DC causes us to get nothing... so the curse wont really be a curse this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What Yoda said. I think This is the euro's redemption storm after a lackluster season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I saw some good trends on the GFS ensembles, basically there are 2 vorts that come out under the ridge out west, the GFS keeps focusing on the lead vort, and doesns't leave enough energy with the 2nd for it to come up the coast. A few of the 18z ensembles changed that, and I do think we will see a change on the GFS, it may not be drastic, but I do think we see at least a gradual step towards the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think we might get NAM'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The NAM @ 36 hours has held some more energy back west, it looks very similar to the 12z EURO @ 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I just checked the EPS individual member precip output (not flawed snow charts). Very supportive of timing and amounts. About .7 liquid for DCA. Only 2 dry members during the 96-126hr period. I'm not sure how the euro can have it this wrong. 95% of the members show .15+ during the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM is still way south, but it shouldn't take much in future runs to shift north, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I can't believe they're having a radio show without first waiting for the NAM run to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM decided to go way drier down in the SE... nothing like the 18z re QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The American models are still spilling their load on the front running vort. The RGEM does it as well. People need to realize the EURO didn't have that much overrunning precip at 48-60 hrs because it held most of its energy back over Texas. Earlier I saw the RGEM posted, but it wasn't good because that vort isn't the one you want to root for. No one will listen to me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 12:10 AM, varinacav said: I seriously believe the only way the mid atlantic gets a snowstorm is when the models don't pick up on it until 24-48 hrs ahead of time. Maybe late Feb. early March something may go wrong and we score . The Mid Atlantic consists of a much larger area than just Virginia/Maryland east of the fall line. Much of the mid Atlantic has already seen several snow "storms" this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 2:38 AM, yoda said: NAM decided to go way drier down in the SE... nothing like the 18z re QPF It was actually a good trend, the precip you got on the 18z NAM wasn't from the vort that the EURO brings up the coast. The one you have to root for is the one over Texas at 75 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:14 AM, stormtracker said: Yeah, because we had a radio show before 12/19/2009, 2/5/2010, 2/7/2010 and 1/26/2011 and we missed all of those. Good post. LOL, the written in stone storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Remember, the EURO didn't have the storm coming out from the gulf until 96 hours, people are confusing the shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You can see the NAM "trying" at 81 hours, THAT is the vort you need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 2:40 AM, Highzenberg said: It was actually a good trend, the precip you got on the 18z NAM wasn't from the vort that the EURO brings up the coast. The one you have to root for is the one over Texas at 75 hours. It looks like its juicing up down near NO at hr 81 and hr 84... which kind of looks like what the UKIE was doing on its 12z run... NAM def took a step toward the EURO with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 2:43 AM, yoda said: It looks like its juicing up down near NO at hr 81... which kind of looks like what the UKIE was doing on its 12z run Exactly, that is the wave the EURO brings up the coast. However, what is happening is the American models are putting too much energy into that initial wave, not leaving enough energy behind. The EURO focuses mainly on the 2nd one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 2:39 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: The Mid Atlantic consists of a much larger area than just Virginia/Maryland east of the fall line. Much of the mid Atlantic has already seen several snow "storms" this year. Are you sure? I thought "mid Atlantic" meant a 30 mile radius around DC. Yours is an interesting concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 2:44 AM, Highzenberg said: Exactly, that is the wave the EURO brings up the coast. However, what is happening is the American models are putting too much energy into that initial wave, not leaving enough energy behind. The EURO focuses mainly on the 2nd one. Still doesn't mean the Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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