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February Medium/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr

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We're not going to get anything anyway, so no curse

 

Maybe its the reverse of the curse so that we will actually get something when usually we are in line to get something and the radio show curse in DC causes us to get nothing... so the curse wont really be a curse this go around

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I saw some good trends on the GFS ensembles, basically there are 2 vorts that come out under the ridge out west, the GFS keeps focusing on the lead vort, and doesns't leave enough energy with the 2nd for it to come up the coast. A few of the 18z ensembles changed that, and I do think we will see a change on the GFS, it may not be drastic, but I do think we see at least a gradual step towards the EURO. 

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I just checked the EPS individual member precip output (not flawed snow charts). Very supportive of timing and amounts. About .7 liquid for DCA. Only 2 dry members during the 96-126hr period. I'm not sure how the euro can have it this wrong. 95% of the members show .15+ during the period.

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The American models are still spilling their load on the front running vort. The RGEM does it as well. People need to realize the EURO didn't have that much overrunning precip at 48-60 hrs because it held most of its energy back over Texas. Earlier I saw the RGEM posted, but it wasn't good because that vort isn't the one you want to root for. No one will listen to me though :(

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I seriously believe the only way the mid atlantic gets a snowstorm is when the models don't pick up on it until 24-48 hrs ahead of time. Maybe late Feb. early March something may go wrong and we score .

The Mid Atlantic consists of a much larger area than just Virginia/Maryland east of the fall line. Much of the mid Atlantic has already seen several snow "storms" this year.

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It was actually a good trend, the precip you got on the 18z NAM wasn't from the vort that the EURO brings up the coast. The one you have to root for is the one over Texas at 75 hours. 

 

It looks like its juicing up down near NO at hr 81 and hr 84... which kind of looks like what the UKIE was doing on its 12z run... NAM def took a step toward the EURO with this run

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It looks like its juicing up down near NO at hr 81... which kind of looks like what the UKIE was doing on its 12z run

 

Exactly, that is the wave the EURO brings up the coast. However, what is happening is the American models are putting too much energy into that initial wave, not leaving enough energy behind. The EURO focuses mainly on the 2nd one. 

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Exactly, that is the wave the EURO brings up the coast. However, what is happening is the American models are putting too much energy into that initial wave, not leaving enough energy behind. The EURO focuses mainly on the 2nd one.

Still doesn't mean the Euro is right

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