CAPE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 time for the GFS to trend toward the euro. Wouldn't count on that. Sounds like the EPS is leaning a bit more the way of the GFS op if anything. Model specifics aside, the pattern seems to support a snow to rain type deal. This should be a pretty good storm for NW of I-95. For DC and esp places SE, a few inches followed by rain seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 it's not, though it is usually a pretty good bet that the storm will trend not in our favor.....as the models want it to snow here much more than is consistent with our climo.... 1987 didnt have a 50-50 I dont think....it was a pretty rotten pattern as you remember, except for a big PNA ridge...of course the Nino probably helped....it also has some east based blocking It didn't have a classic 50 50 but had a strongly negative NAO and had a surface low still producing northwesterly winds over Maine as the storm started up the east coast. Here's the anomaly pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wouldn't count on that. Sounds like the EPS is leaning a bit more the way of the GFS op if anything. Model specifics aside, the pattern seems to support a snow to rain type deal. This should be a pretty good storm for NW of I-95. For DC and esp places SE, a few inches followed by rain seems reasonable. I don't disagree about snow to rain but I'm not sure we're looking at the same EPS. GFS op is totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't disagree about snow to rain but I'm not sure we're looking at the same EPS. GFS op is totally different. GFS has had the low coming up the coast for awhile. Its been too warm, but the EURO op and ens have come in with less snow, and a definite change to rain along and east of I-95. In that context, if there has been any movement at all between the models, its certainly not the GFS towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wouldn't count on that. Sounds like the EPS is leaning a bit more the way of the GFS op if anything. Model specifics aside, the pattern seems to support a snow to rain type deal. This should be a pretty good storm for NW of I-95. For DC and esp places SE, a few inches followed by rain seems reasonable. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS/EURO still vary greatly. Idk if the GFS will end up showing a storm, but it wouldn't be the same way the EURO got the storm up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't disagree about snow to rain but I'm not sure we're looking at the same EPS. GFS op is totally different. Yeah, I'm not sure what he's looking at. Or are we looking at /reading the wrong thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah, I'm not sure what he's looking at. Or are we looking at /reading the wrong thing? I think the comparison is being made to sensible wx outcome. That the euro has back off it's initial snow destruction and has snow to mix now. But the evolution between the 2 models are starkly different. Euro has been consistent and the GFS makes up something brand new every 6 hours. It's easy to not rely on the gfs right now but it's pissing me off nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think the comparison is being made to sensible wx outcome. That the euro has back off it's initial snow destruction and has snow to mix now. But the evolution between the 2 models are starkly different. Euro has been consistent and the GFS makes up something brand new every 6 hours. It's easy to not rely on the gfs right now but it's pissing me off nonetheless. 18z GFS is loltastic... I am not sure if we should even put any stock into the GFS at this point, esp when this run we see absolutely nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS is loltastic... I am not sure if we should even put any stock into the GFS at this point I can't remember the last time I've seen the euro repeat itself 4 times in a row at this lead but the gfs hasn't even come close to resembling it in 8 runs. And for the euro to have such strong support with it's ensembles is crazy. I know this, if the 18z gfs op verifies then the euro might have to be put in the same class as the CMC or even dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hasn't the GFS been pretty consistent in keeping it south? Seems like 6, 12, and 18Z were similar to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think the comparison is being made to sensible wx outcome. That the euro has back off it's initial snow destruction and has snow to mix now. But the evolution between the 2 models are starkly different. Euro has been consistent and the GFS makes up something brand new every 6 hours. It's easy to not rely on the gfs right now but it's pissing me off nonetheless. Yes. It is irrational, but the gfs is making me angry. Something needs to give either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hasn't the GFS been pretty consistent in keeping it south? Seems like 6, 12, and 18Z were similar to each other. No, 12z was a phased blinding rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Tough when you cant even get it on an 18z run. edit: actually maybe I haven't seen it far enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Tough when you cant even get it on an 18z run. I think the gfs just got back from a trip to CO last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro is nearly in the nam range ....if it holds tonight I think odds go way up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah, I'm not sure what he's looking at. Or are we looking at /reading the wrong thing? Never mind. I was replying to Wonderdog's post hoping the GFS trends toward the Euro. I said dont count on it. Obviously the 2 models are pretty far apart on the specific evolution. The Euro now has a low, coming up the coast, and further west, with less snow for I-95 and east. Subjectively, IF ANYTHINIG, that is more of a move towards the GFS than visa versa. I dont think I said they were similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Tough when you cant even get it on an 18z run. edit: actually maybe I haven't seen it far enough yet. There is basically 0.00 QPF for DCA through 132 on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 The gfs has been good, but I think right now you go with the model showing consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Oh, I guess I missed 12Z. Weird. Go with the seasonal trend. Snow axis Atlanta to Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Oh, I guess I missed 12Z. Weird. Go with the seasonal trend. Snow axis Atlanta to Norfolk. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think the gfs just got back from a trip to CO last night I didn't look at 12z. or forgot there was a big rainer a little later in the week or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 last 3 runs, after "our" storm didnt materialize, it brought a low up the coast and gave us rain...this run it doesnt even do that...the subsequent coastal never happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 America/Canada versus Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm hugging whichever model ends up right. I'll let you know which in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 America/Canada versus Europe I'll go with the Candian/GFS.....90% of the time, the model giving us snow in this range will cave to the model that screws us....The euro is obviously dead wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I just went back 8 runs on the gfs. 18z today is by far the biggest outlier. I think an ots solution or even non event is possible but the euro had us snowing in 102 hours. And it's ensemble suite fully backed it up. This is weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'll go with the Candian/GFS.....90% of the time, the model giving us snow in this range will cave to the model that screws us....The euro is obviously dead wrong NAVGEM is on board sorta. 4dvar ftw? The Canadian is now too isnt it? Going with whichever gives us the least snow is usually the best play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I just went back 8 runs on the gfs. 18z today is by far the biggest outlier. I think an ots solution or even non event is possible but the euro had us snowing in 102 hours. And it's ensemble suite fully backed it up. This is weird Defo wierd. When there is this much disparity between models at this time frame, it does not usually bode well for the outcome being the more snowy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 last 3 runs, after "our" storm didnt materialize, it brought a low up the coast and gave us rain...this run it doesnt even do that...the subsequent coastal never happens... Shows that the models have no clue about the storm. It's a good time to let others attempt to be heroes. My guess is that the euro isn't right but who knows its ensembles seem to support it. Fast flow with lots of shortwave usually doesn't result in amplification when there is little upstream ridging. Still.......this pattern is such a tough one, pretty much any of the solutions is still on the table though right now I'd bet against the Euro. Glad I have the weekend off. If I was writing a CWG article I'd be suitably non committal. Lol, this pattern has me rambling and saying nothing of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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