mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM makes Monday interesting. 0.25" (with more just to the south). 850s well below 0 and surface temps in the upper 20s. too bad the NAM makes American Idol look like an exact science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 just saw the nam...not biting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 just saw the nam...not biting looks like the same system the Euro had us at .15+ qpf before the 12z run and then cut us back <.10" NAM will start cutting back at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 looks like the same system the Euro had us at .15+ qpf before the 12z run and then cut us back <.10" NAM will start cutting back at 6z Undoubtedly. GFS will have nothing. Euro will have .08 and totally cave to the gfs for Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Monday morning looks more interesting as it should be wetter if the 00Z NAM is right.It is surprising how often Wes's comments get ignored....not sure he was suggesting anything, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It is surprising how often Wes's comments get ignored....not sure he was suggesting anything, normally, we'd be all over it. I think everyone is just so down and out. If it happened like the NAM, it would actually be a decent little event...temps in the upper 20's....snow falling...it'd be a moderate deal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS wants nothing to do with it. So odd how the GFS is against every event...and probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 normally, we'd be all over it. I think everyone is just so down and out. If it happened like the NAM, it would actually be a decent little event...temps in the upper 20's....snow falling...it'd be a moderate dHere are the Sugar Loaf Dates... May 31st, June 28th, July 26th, August 30th, September 27th, and October 25th. eal for us.I hear what your saying...and I realize I contribute nothing in terms of analysis, but my experience after reading 100,000,000 posts is that Wes generally has it right. I realize most regulars know that, but I still am surprised at how often his comments fall upon deaf ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Sugar Loaf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Personally think NAM just had a fluke run, the 00z GFS/RGEM put most of their weight into the 48hr event which is probably a 40N event. GFS; RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Sugar Loaf? Yeah I just noticed that....I have no idea how that got into the quote. I posted from my i phone. The sugar loaf dates were part of a text I sent to my music partner months ago. I seriously have no idea how that got included in the quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah I just noticed that....I have no idea how that got into the quote. I posted from my i phone. The sugar loaf dates were part of a text I sent to my music partner months ago. I seriously have no idea how that got included in the quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS tracks the low right over us. Can't be good for surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's kind of scary....who knows what your smart phone might reveal unexpectedly. lol Perhaps a Freudian slip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS tracks the low right over us. Can't be good for surface temps. about .20 with temps 32-34 from I-70 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Better change the thread to" Reasons to be Sad, Saturday Thru All of Next Week"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nice temp gradient over eastern Quebec at 180hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Water vapor is wild. Looks like a horseshoe moved thru Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I wrote this afternoon that the organizing precipitation along TX/LA gulf coastline was the breeding ground for moderate DC snows. That area has intensified and expanded and moved northeast. If the precip makes it into northern Kentucky then DC area is going to be in for 2"+ and a nice surprise. we have a winnah http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USKY0721&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The northern extent of that precip shield is snow. It is also getting longer with time. More precip is developing in eastern Oklahoma and is in effect making that northern extent of the snow shield longer. It will move ENE with time, and it will end up training over northern Va and over DC. The areal extent of the precip shield has already increased by 70 percent in just the last three hours. I know, I've been watching it. My finger is sore as heck from hitting refresh, and it will be worth it. The ground is cold. The 2 meter temps will be excellent. We have mid 20s temps with dews in the teens. Snow moistening up the column will cause the temps to fall a few more degrees. We have light north winds. Enjoy the snow in a few hours. The title of this thread should be changed to 'Keep on Believin' Saturday thru much of next week'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes Jeb. Radar and Water Vapor real interesting last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes Jeb. Radar and Water Vapor real interesting last 3 hours. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Now I see why everyone is so downcast about this system. It is moisture starved. Mountains are just squeezing all the qpf out. By the time it gets here it'll be drier than a popcorn fart. What snow we do get will hit - you guessed it - Richmond - AGAIN. The unicorn is dead and we wont see any more til next winter. I think I'm ready for an early spring. I want a strong upper level ridge and highs in the 80s and thunderstorms. February showers make for vibrant colorful March flowers. There's always next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The GFS is Bullish on the clipper thing on Monday morning.. that "redeveloping" clipper from January was the best storm we had in three years. I dont know if the set ups are any where near similar... meh... on a second look, the vort looks to be just a tad too far north for a northern stream system to work some magic for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 just saw the nam...not biting Well it looks like the NAM backed off a little and now the GFS has caught on just a bit... for a a NC-VA snow storm... unbelievable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The GFS is Bullish on the clipper thing on Monday morning.. that "redeveloping" clipper from January was the best storm we had in three years. I dont know if the set ups are any where near similar... meh... on a second look, the vort looks to be just a tad too far north for a northern stream system to work some magic for us. Late Sunday into Sunday night is the only wave that has any real potential. The NAM is not going to be correct, its 0z run was whacked. Problem with the Sunday deal is its likely going to track a bit too far north. SREFs and GFS both have a nice little event...for places north of DC. Probably less than an inch DC to BWI to Dover, 1-3 N MD to Philly, and maybe 4 north of that. S.O.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Seriously, Richmond again? Love you Jeb but anyone who thinks Richmond has been some favored spot for snow hasn't been paying attention the last ten plus years. Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Agree. Looks like Sunday night-Monday is in play but for northern Md to north of Philly. Dc gets very little out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The GFS is Bullish on the clipper thing on Monday morning.. that "redeveloping" clipper from January was the best storm we had in three years. I dont know if the set ups are any where near similar... meh... on a second look, the vort looks to be just a tad too far north for a northern stream system to work some magic for us. Definitely too far north. 500 level map is pretty much all I look at now. Need it underneath us or else congrats PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 'Snow TV' channel up and running.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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