Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think if the metro areas manage to pull out a 1.5" snow in any one of the three waves between Saturday and Monday morning, the mood would shift to be much more optimistic. People on this board are just much happier when there's snow covering the grass and sidewalks.... and optimistic meaning an educated guess that it wouldn't make sense to cancel winter on 2/6 in a winter that's been "not terrible" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS was 0.2" with 0.25" knocking on my door in SW Ffx county. I'd gladly take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think if the metro areas manage to pull out a 1.5" snow in any one of the three waves between Saturday and Monday morning, the mood would shift to be much more optimistic. People on this board are just much happier when there's snow covering the grass and sidewalks.... and optimistic meaning an educated guess that it wouldn't make sense to cancel winter on 2/6 in a winter that's been "not terrible" so far. sat looks about as good as it could on both the euro and gfs... bullseye! but yeah.. i dunno. something is wrong here with the mood. maybe because places n/w are doing so much better compared to avg.. we're still well in the game on winter even at lowly dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Imo- the most interesting part of this period is that all guidance gives us .2-.3 for the most part but every model does it a different way. If you take the highest total period out of each model we get 4". That's what I'm huggin till further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I still have to stick wirh 1-2" because that was my first and final call. I don't want to get all dt and stuff up in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ian starting a snow thread can only be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 I still have to stick wirh 1-2" because that was my first and final call. I don't want to get all dt and stuff up in here The vort pass is decent for the first sys.. at least whatever is there. I don't like the low being halfway to bermuda at the time but oh well. Might just evaporate. Might actually be worth splitting the threads at this pt.. if someone wants to start one for the second wave. Of course they could both bust then we have two worthless threads instead of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ian starting a snow thread can only be good. I'm a simple forecaster.. whenever the euro and gfs blend is good I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Imo- the most interesting part of this period is that all guidance gives us .2-.3 for the most part but every model does it a different way. If you take the highest total period out of each model we get 4". That's what I'm huggin till further notice. Yeah, that's been interesting to me too... and we're not all that far out in lead time at this point. The NAM now makes the Sunday morning wave the most important one while the GFS has switched to the Saturday one. The GFS now better matches the 12Z Euro, with the Saturday and Sunday overnight ones being the bigger deal, so we'll see what the 0Z Euro does. The RGEM's 18Z run and 0Z run are pretty different in handling the Saturday one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The vort pass is decent for the first sys.. at least whatever is there. I don't like the low being halfway to bermuda at the time but oh well. Might just evaporate. Might actually be worth splitting the threads at this pt.. if someone wants to start one for the second wave. Of course they could both bust then we have two worthless threads instead of one. Well, three waves in 48 hours at this point-- and yes 3 threads would be silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, three waves in 48 hours at this point-- and yes 3 threads would be silly.Cool we can just keep it all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Cool thread, but please "don't be that guy" who tracks 1" of snow for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Cool we can just keep it all together. Of course you would after I named the storm after you. Pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, three waves in 48 hours at this point-- and yes 3 threads would be silly. Risk/reward. If 2 of 3 fail in one thread it's a fail. Doing 3 gives much better odds to having one be a win. And if all 3 win we are only one vort shy of batting the cycle. We are faced with many difficult decisions on amwx. I'm rattled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Im mostly in for the saturday part for now. Anything after looks iffy for my taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Vortex is gone but we have stayed cold. This weekend looks to be fun to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 but yeah.. i dunno. something is wrong here with the mood. maybe because places n/w are doing so much better compared to avg.. we're still well in the game on winter even at lowly dca. I'm about 4" away from median snow for the past 30 years, as is DCA. Mine is of course a smaller percentage than DCA, but I've definitely not hit seasonal climo total yet. Still, this winter has not sucked in terms of sensible weather IMO: Snow to sleet to prolonged ZR to start the season, then an under-performing but still accumulating snow (including an inch even at DCA), then a light freezing rain event even in the cities during Sunday morning, then an over-performing overnight snowfall to welcome the New Year, then another freezing rain event that verified on the tail end of the first 'polar vortex intrusion' which caused walkers to fall on their butts, then the biggie of the season so far with 4-8" across the metro areas, then the dusting to 1" light snow that the subforum "willed north" again, then the ice storm/freezing rain event for the area. Now we're looking at perhaps more accumulating snow this weekend and the possibility of more next week. This is not going to be an amazingly snowy winter for the metro areas, but it's going to remembered as pretty wintry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm about 4" away from median snow for the past 30 years, as is DCA. Mine is of course a smaller percentage than DCA, but I've definitely not hit seasonal climo total yet. Still, this winter has not sucked in terms of sensible weather IMO: Snow to sleet to prolonged ZR to start the season, then an under-performing but still accumulating snow (including an inch even at DCA), then a light freezing rain event even in the cities during Sunday morning, then an over-performing overnight snowfall to welcome the New Year, then another freezing rain event that verified on the tail end of the first 'polar vortex intrusion' which caused walkers to fall on their butts, then the biggie of the season so far with 4-8" across the metro areas, then the dusting to 1" light snow that the subforum "willed north" again, then the ice storm/freezing rain event for the area. Now we're looking at perhaps more accumulating snow this weekend and the possibility of more next week. This is not going to be an amazingly snowy winter for the metro areas, but it's going to remembered as pretty wintry.... +100000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 euro is kind of weak sauce for saturday <1", but early Monday looks like 0.20" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Matt, the monday wave is trending. Not sure what I think about it. But the last 3 runs have increased the precip on the boundary so our sw each run. I can almost envision a weak lp running up now based on the euro runs. There is some gefs support but op says wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 So euro has .27 through the period but wave 3 is the "biggest". What an odd period with the models. We just need to maximize each wave and we'll have some real fun. Eta: Wes has almost .4 for the period on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 So euro has .27 through the period but wave 3 is the "biggest". What an odd period with the models. We just need to maximize each wave and we'll have some real fun. Eta: Wes has almost .4 for the period on this run. I am interested (though not hopeful) to see how it all evolves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I am interested (though not hopeful) to see how it all evolves Yea, it's whacky with this kind of spacing. Would be nice to get the first one with an inch or 2. Everything after gets even more muddy. I like the idea of a wave on the boundary for obvious reasons. Euro is on its own but 3 straight runs of better solutions will raise an eyebrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yea, it's whacky with this kind of spacing. Would be nice to get the first one with an inch or 2. Everything after gets even more muddy. I like the idea of a wave on the boundary for obvious reasons. Euro is on its own but 3 straight runs of better solutions will raise an eyebrow I'm looking forward to my 36 degrees and 0.01"/hr rates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm looking forward to my 36 degrees and 0.01"/hr rates.... Oh wow, you better fasten your seatbelt. Hours of that incoming. Maybe days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I havent seen Fullmug on here since forever..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I havent seen Fullmug on here since forever..... Probably been drinking from his fullmug way to much to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 6z GFS with support for the first and third waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 NAM pops a baby low off VA capes on Monday; extreme outer range of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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