John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFS was something close to a big ice event for them. It's been the warmest at 850 and the furthest south of the models. I think I was reading about Georgia and then some ice coming in a second wave to Eastern Carolina but after they get a good snow. So I might trade for that! Someone said something about a low(?) coming up HAT. Is that the Hatteris in NC that Carvers was wanting? I wish I had copied it here, because I'd never find it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think I was reading about Georgia and then some ice coming in a second wave to Eastern Carolina but after they get a good snow. So I might trade for that! Someone said something about a low(?) coming up HAT. Is that the Hatteris in NC that Carvers was wanting? I wish I had copied it here, because I'd never find it again. The only warm nose i saw isthrough your area,but its not horrific,SE TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm going to assume that the QPF maps basically back that up on the Euro, those wxbell snow maps can't handle any kind of ice, which I don't expect to be a factor in Tennessee. But I imagine some of those mass totals in South Carolina are probably zr/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Now that's just a tease to delay snow for here two days. I'm hoping it's just wrong like it was a week or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 All the models are showing two pieces of energy I think. The GFS is just way south with it's second piece. The trend of the day seems to be downplaying the overrunning of the first wave and playing up the second. The second piece is outside the range of the NAM and other models. There is 3 Edit:2 on top one below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Jax, can you read that last page of the SE Forum (page 41). I guess it's the 2nd wave and it's going inland and they say bombs Nashville? Someone else says mountains so maybe Middle TN to Western NC? I don't know if it even means anything since nothing is turning out like the models say, but that sounds interesting for you guys. Now he says Middle TN to West Virginia, so maybe you guys and the TRI guys can get some snow sometime this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Jax, can you read that last page of the SE Forum (page 41). I guess it's the 2nd wave and it's going inland and they say bombs Nashville? Someone else says mountains so maybe Middle TN to Western NC? I don't know if it even means anything since nothing is turning out like the models say, but that sounds interesting for you guys. Just look at the graph i showed above,there is 3 waves like ive been saying if the two waves atop phase its a big storm for the valley,if they seperate with one going faster atop just hope for over running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WPC disco regarding the 00z model suite they prefer for our storm next week, GIVEN THE SUBTLE CONVERGENCE SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT00Z GUIDANCE...THE PREFERENCE WILL HEDGE IN THATDIRECTION...BLENDING THE NEW ECMWF WITH THE OLDER 12Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thank you, Jax. That would be later, and not our original Monday/Tuesday storm? Though I know when this thread was first started we thought it could be Wednesday, I think? John, I don't envy those forecast people. Jax, I edited that post above to say Middle TN to West Virginia according to the SE Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thank you, Jax. That would be later, and not our original Monday/Tuesday storm? Though I know when this thread was first started we thought it could be Wednesday, I think? John, I don't envy those forecast people. Jax, I edited that post above to say Middle TN to West Virginia according to the SE Forum. No this would be Mon/Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thank you, Jax. That would be later, and not our original Monday/Tuesday storm? Though I know when this thread was first started we thought it could be Wednesday, I think? John, I don't envy those forecast people. Jax, I edited that post above to say Middle TN to West Virginia according to the SE Forum. lol..i didnt even notice this until you mentioned it,thought it was way 2 warm but now..hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 06z NAM just croaked for Tennessee. Looks about like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So. The GFS led the way over the a Euro. IMO a complete cave by it? The GFS at 0z shows that south same GA low. It was a newish solution. The Euro now has it. The models are jumping on the caboose(energy). NAM can't go out that far. I will take that Euro track all day, every day. Let's see how the 12 z suite handles it. Figured there would be a big change tonight. That low might actually trend further NW. The option now on the table is a pretty hefty storm well inland like west of the Apps. Even this close NO consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So. The GFS led the way over the a Euro. IMO a complete cave by it? The GFS at 0z shows that south same GA low. It was a newish solution. The Euro now has it. The models are jumping on the caboose(energy). NAM can't go out that far. I will take that Euro track all day, every day. Let's see how the 12 z suite handles it. Figured there would be a big change tonight. That low might actually trend further NW. The option now on the table is a pretty heft storm well inland like west of the Apps. Even this close NO consensus. I love the South been here my whole life but honestly, this is why I am moving to Northern Indiana. So that I can have reliable snow of some amount each year. I believe it has been since 2003 at least since Nashville has had a plowable snow, this get tiresome! Seems like cities 200 - 300 miles to the south of Nashville have higher seasonal snow averages than we do over the last ten years, simply amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 06z GFS comes in more NW with the precip field and drops 1-3 over more of Tennessee where it had been dry here.. Hopefully this is the start of a trend. First map is 00z qpf. 2nd is 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We have the 6z NAM and RGEM both showing a non-event in TN for the first wave. Looking great for north MS and AL though. Boy that new data ingest last night meant business haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Now, here is the crazy thing...I bet a ton of flip-flopping is to follow. Looks like the first wave will be 1-3" for the areas of northern Alabama, north Georgia, and extreme southern TN. I think that is pretty well set. That second wave is the business end of this deal. We are back to the old school rules of where it tracks. Coastal plain - jackpot. Coast - light snow. IF a slp develops, which the Euro and GFS both have, my money is an inland track inside Hatteras. Still, I have no idea if the 0z runs are correct. I thought last night would be a change - just not that big. I do not think we are done yet with changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Robert expects more modeling chaos to come. He's going to put out call maps this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I just don't see the cold temps needed south of tenn for major snow. Seen this before. Unless that second wave bombs and tracks inside up through central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I just don't see the cold temps needed south of tenn for major snow. Seen this before. Unless that second wave bombs and tracks inside up through central NC. You'll be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yet another variation on the 12z NAM. This time there is a northern component to the first wave that gives TN 1 to 3 inches. The next wave is so suppressed even NC misses out. You can't buy consistency on the models right now. Edit: eastern NC salvages some snow towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z NAM pops a low near the end of its run. The Euro, GFS, and now the NAM have this feature today. It is the feature to watch along with Stoves piece of energy sliding along the KY border early in the period. The piece of energy to now watch is the SLP coming off the Florida panhandle Weds. Probably won't be until tomorrow until it is modeled well. The stronger it is...the closer it gets to the TN Valley. Right now it looks like a light event for the eastern valley. But remember this, it is very common to break towards a spring like pattern with a big winter storm. I wonder if that energy evolves into that. Speculation at this point...on to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Robert has several new posts on FB. Sounds like this could be quite a storm. Looking forward to his call maps later today. Hope we get some of the love here in the Central Valley of East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Basically all the models are saying if you're in the Middle to west North of hwy 64 enjoy the clouds..lol Edit:except the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Robert has several new posts on FB. Sounds like this could be quite a storm. Looking forward to his call maps later today. Hope we get some of the love here in the Central Valley of East TN. What is Roberts FB url? Is it weathersouth? I've never looked at it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What is Roberts FB url? Is it weathersouth? I've never looked at it. Thanks wxsouth is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ugh I don't know what to think with this one. the dreaded sweet spot 3 days out has cursed our area lol. North trend is always our friend. Maybe this thing can phase early and plaster the valley. What happens appears to still be anyone's guess. The fact that the NAM and GFS have trended south is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hmmmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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