jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What ratio is that using? its off my text,ill post it for you,gimme a couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GGEM is further south, continuing the trends of the evening shift. Yepper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 its off my text,ill post it for you,gimme a couple NAM/WRF 80Km FORECAST FOR: MSL LAT= 34.73 LON= -87.60 ELE= 551 7P FEB 8 SFC 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 7P 08-FEB 5.3 -1.2 1023 79 9 561 543 SUN 1A 09-FEB 3.3 3.6 1020 94 15 0.00 558 542 SUN 7A 09-FEB 2.4 0.4 1021 98 53 0.00 558 541 SUN 1P 09-FEB 8.3 4.6 1021 71 34 0.01 563 546 SUN 7P 09-FEB 6.6 5.9 1021 81 29 0.00 564 547 MON 1A 10-FEB 2.6 3.7 1021 89 32 0.00 562 545 MON 7A 10-FEB 0.3 2.0 1023 88 90 0.01 561 543 MON 1P 10-FEB 0.7 0.6 1022 86 93 0.09 561 543 MON 7P 10-FEB -1.2 -0.5 1022 96 99 0.35 560 543 TUE 1A 11-FEB -2.5 -1.2 1023 92 92 0.24 559 541 TUE 7A 11-FEB -5.8 -2.0 1025 91 53 0.01 558 538 TUE 1P 11-FEB 0.8 -2.0 1027 68 25 0.00 559 538 TUE 7P 11-FEB -1.1 -0.9 1027 82 26 0.00 559 538 WED 1A 12-FEB -5.3 0.0 1027 91 28 0.00 560 539 I double checked your thermals and you look ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm several pages behind in the SE Forum, but they seem to think a lot of theirs is ice. I don't know, but they can have the ice, if it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does anyone still think this thing shifts to the NW? It literally looks like a shift of 75-100 miles puts the whole state squarely in the game. If such a shift were to occur, when does it typically show up on the models? Around 48 hrs? 24-48 hrs? Inside 24 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm several pages behind in the SE Forum, but they seem to think a lot of theirs is ice. I don't know, but they can have the ice, if it is. dont see the ice,even the 925's look cold Edit;Now if we are talking bout SC,i'd be worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does anyone still think this thing shifts to the NW? It literally looks like a shift of 75-100 miles puts the whole state squarely in the game. If such a shift were to occur, when does it typically show up on the models? Around 48 hrs? 24-48 hrs? Inside 24 hrs? I think it's certainly possible. Anything is possible. Based on the expert discussion on the radio show tonight we won't know until sometime tomorrow. I'm glued to this 0z Euro run, curious to see what direction it goes and how amped it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does anyone still think this thing shifts to the NW? It literally looks like a shift of 75-100 miles puts the whole state squarely in the game. If such a shift were to occur, when does it typically show up on the models? Around 48 hrs? 24-48 hrs? Inside 24 hrs? The event that brought the Valley 3-5 inches a week and a half ago was a complete miss until it was within 24 hours or so. The NW trend used to be the most feared way to miss winter storms here. They'd look great for days on end, only to suddenly shift NW and cut the to the Lakes. Now we're managing to struggle to get a good storm because it won't shift NW. I'd say tomorrow night's 00z runs or Monday's 12z should tell the tale and give close to the final solution. At least as close as it gets this year, in the west Tennessee ice event they were wrong while the event was happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The event that brought the Valley 3-5 inches a week and a half ago was a complete miss until it was within 24 hours or so. The NW trend used to be the most feared way to miss winter storms here. They'd look great for days on end, only to suddenly shift NW and cut the to the Lakes. Now we're managing to struggle to get a good storm because it won't shift NW. I'd say tomorrow night's 00z runs or Monday's 12z should tell the tale and give close to the final solution. At least as close as it gets this year, in the west Tennessee ice event they were wrong while the event was happening. True dat, for the latest one particularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think it's certainly possible. Anything is possible. Based on the expert discussion on the radio show tonight we won't know until sometime tomorrow. I'm glued to this 0z Euro run, curious to see what direction it goes and how amped it is. theres more qpf's than what is showing,crap i looked at the skew t's on the NAM and it shows the pw's at 1.33 for BNA at hr 54,it just shows weak returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The event that brought the Valley 3-5 inches a week and a half ago was a complete miss until it was within 24 hours or so. The NW trend used to be the most feared way to miss winter storms here. They'd look great for days on end, only to suddenly shift NW and cut the to the Lakes. Now we're managing to struggle to get a good storm because it won't shift NW. I'd say tomorrow night's 00z runs or Monday's 12z should tell the tale and give close to the final solution. At least as close as it gets this year, in the west Tennessee ice event they were wrong while the event was happening. The thing to note is that the 4" Knoxville got certainly wasn't on the radar of MRX either. We were only under a WWA at the last minute progged to get about an inch of snow. Everyone immediately NW of the decent band got 'surprised'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z Euro....ouch!! Hope it's wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm sorry to say but the Euro is not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z Euro....ouch!! Hope it's wrong! looks N its not that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 looks N its not that bad wat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z Euro....ouch!! Hope it's wrong! on the free map use your 850mb wind,iit's N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 on the free map use your 850mb wind,iit's N huh? this run sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 huh? this run sucked. how so,the low is in S/ga and not off carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm showing less than an inch for all of TN except for Chattanooga and up to about central Sequatchie valley which gets 2 to 4 inches, by hour 84. Not including mountains of course. North MS, AL, GA look good. 2-4 for those areas with NE GA looking like the bullseye on the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 oddly enough...a new feature has showed up around 96 sweeping through the state....very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Stop the presses, big redevelopment at hour 96 in west/middle TN, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not a big surprise. Gonna hope that Robert is right like he was with the other event and that models are underdoing the qpf field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm showing less than an inch for all of TN except for Chattanooga and up to about central Sequatchie valley which gets 2 to 4 inches, by hour 84. Not including mountains of course. North MS, AL, GA look good. 2-4 for those areas with NE GA looking like the bullseye on the snow maps. Dont look at the qpf's right now look at the trend all day,its nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Time for bed these ups and downs are driving me nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't know how we aren't doing well on the Euro, it has a LP centered down in South Ga that would normally be a pretty prime position for us. I can't believe the models aren't underestimating the QPF field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't know how we aren't doing well on the Euro, it has a LP centered down in South Ga that would normally be a pretty prime position for us. I can't believe the models aren't underestimating the QPF field. they are John,look at my post up above even what the NAM showed when i looked at BNA'S skew T's it showed pwats at 1.33,no way the reflective maps should look like they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, somehow we ended up with this by hour 120, at hour 84 it wasn't even close to this. The redevelopment that happened, as Reb said, and swept the state did the deed. A pretty odd run if you ask me, but I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 dont see the ice,even the 925's look cold Edit;Now if we are talking bout SC,i'd be worried I think I was reading about Georgia and then some ice coming in a second wave to Eastern Carolina but after they get a good snow. So I might trade for that! Someone said something about a low(?) coming up HAT. Is that the Hatteris in NC that Carvers was wanting? I wish I had copied it here, because I'd never find it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 All the models are showing two pieces of energy I think. The GFS is just way south with it's second piece. The trend of the day seems to be downplaying the overrunning of the first wave and playing up the second. The second piece is outside the range of the NAM and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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