Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z NAM total snow: Just a hair south early in the run. Really, what everyone is seeing is much less qpf...much less. Probably because it is faster. The biggest difference, it makes no attempt to turn a tad north over North Carolina. That is the main difference. Just goes OTS. I don't think this goes directly OTS...I think it pulls north just a tad on its way out. Remember, cold air has not penetrated as far south as modeled this winter. That makes a huge difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Indeed, the NAM just slipped it on out quickly, at 18z it was a longer duration event and was able to throw much more moisture back into the Tennessee Valley. QPF was down about 35-50% that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, one good thing we can say at this point is that the temps look pretty good for the TN Valley. QPF is another matter, but at the end of the day I'd take a bit of a hit on the snow totals if it meant more confidence in what did fall was snow and would stick. Glad we're not as much in the battle zone there, with ice/mix/rain/whoknowswhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 But let's be honest...it is a pretty good run for many in the SE. At this point there is not trend. Has to be more than one run for that. Basically, again, it is faster. We will know over the next 24 hrs where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Knoxville is in a good spot regardless unless there's a major shift. I could see this ending up like the last event where I was just a bit too far north and west to get much going, while the further east and south you go, the better you do. It's been that kind of winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The RGEM is coming in further south or slower, by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The RGEM is coming in further south or slower, by quite a bit. Yep, that is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Biggest thing that concerns me is the NAM really backed off on qpf, as does the newest RGEM........really shunting the moisture field further south. Looks like the new ingest into the models was good, but not leading to the outcome we want. Looks like its not keying as much on the initial overrunning wave. Still lots to figure out here, and getting pretty close to kickoff...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Basically, everyone is going to see amounts cut on both the NAM and RGEM. Does the GFS score a coup? RGEM looks a tad slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Basically, everyone is going to see amounts cut on both the NAM and RGEM. Does the GFS score a coup? RGEM looks a tad slower. If like to hug the euro ensembles. Their mean give KTRI 5 inches (per Stove). I'd like to take that and run....... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If I had to make (a very amateur) call at this point based on everything I've seen, I'd say 1-2 inches I-40 north, 2-4 I-40 south with TRI, CHA, and the southern border counties doing a little better. Lots of modeling to go and it'll be the 12z or 0z runs tomorrow before we zero in probably. Basically the Euro, as everything seems to be trending towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I have serious doubts for my area getting more than 2 inches. The NAM has been pretty terrible this year, honestly all the models have until within 24 hours and some of them still have trouble at that range. There has been a slight tendency for more of a NW trend for precip shields this year as the event gets closer. Spending the entire winter with a neutral to positive NAO and not having a decided NW trend on storms is almost a miracle in and of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z GFS is way south with the 1st wave. The precip field does not even get past the southern border of Tennessee and by hour 66 the wave has already slid off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In my opinion, this 0z Euro run is important. If it is south/weaker we might have some problems on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z GFS is way south with the 1st wave. The precip field does not even get past the southern border of Tennessee and by hour 66 the wave has already slid off to the east. This has been pretty consistent on the GFS. It's been skipping over Tennessee the last several runs. Been hitting southern Arkansas and Southeastern North Carolina and not much for anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS went close to what it had the last few runs, a bit less snow in Arkansas and a bit less in SE NC but very similar to what it's been putting out otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFS does something interesting. Basically sends a lp up the coast on Thursday. I really have seen so many solutions from it, I can't remember all of them. Anyway, just something to watch. Throws moisture west to the spine of the Apps...Otherwise, onto the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 My RGEM is stuck at hour 48 but it is a drastically different solution. Almost missing TN completely, with North MS and AL salvaging some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 lol..when have we worried about being on the S side and not the N side?i like where we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What in the world is that? Did we just get duped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 My RGEM is stuck at hour 48 but it is a drastically different solution. Almost missing TN completely, with North MS and AL salvaging some snow. From what I can tell the 12/00z RGEM only go out to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 From what I can tell the 12/00z RGEM only go out to 48 hours. Normally that is what I've seen, but the AmericanWX Model Center started carrying it out to hour 54 on the previous run and 0z looks to as well, but it's stuck on 48. I dunno, maybe 18z was glitched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You can go to metrocentre and 06/18 go to 54 and 12/00 only go to 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Robert has an excellent post of Facebook. Heading to bed. Good luck to all on the Euro. Basically, says the models are up to their usual tricks at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Robert has an excellent post of Facebook. Heading to bed. Good luck to all on the Euro. Basically, says the models are up to their usual tricks at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No classes on Tuesday will be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 for you guys around the Muscle Shoals area the NAM is showing .10 ice and .60 snow..qpf's,should be a nice hit for yalll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NMM is further north with QPF: Good hit for nearly all of TN...it's still updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 for you guys around the Muscle Shoals area the NAM is showing .10 ice and .60 snow..qpf's,should be a nice hit for yalll What ratio is that using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GGEM is further south, continuing the trends of the evening shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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