John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Another masher. Almost the entire state picks up more than 6 inches of snowfall, with more than 10 being shown South of 40 and 14+ in the North Carolina border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Another masher. Almost the entire state picks up more than 6 inches of snowfall, with more than 10 being shown South of 40 and 14+ in the North Carolina border counties. Yep. Monster run by the 18z NAM...edit. The 0z is going to shift slightly (or more) as the energy gets sampled better. Will be interested to see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is the surface snowfall. The snow depth is basically 3-6+ for almost the whole state. I guess the model figures on compacting due to wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NC/TN mountains get crushed this run. Upwards of 1.50 inches of QPF. Overall most of the state is above .50" expect for the northern parts of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It may not happen here, but my experience with these systems is that the QPF shield is usually bigger than modeled. I figure it will stretch a bit further north into southern Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If we want snow, we want it to turn the corner ever so slightly. 18z NAM hints at this. More precip on its northern shield this run. Bout to be in its wheelhouse. 0z will tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Temps look pretty great, my sounding shows 27 at the height of the event, looks like 31 around Chattanooga. Very rare to see events like this, but it's looking like January 1988 is a good analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's funny, Carvers and I usually think alike........but in this case, he's optimistic, and I am not. I don't like the axis of precip at this point, maybe 0z changes all that. NORMALLY, id be all in with regards to a northern shift. 18z NAM does jackpot the southern apps, but you can usually cut those numbers in 1/2.....time will tell. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's funny, Carvers and I usually think alike........but in this case, he's optimistic, and I am not. I don't like the axis of precip at this point, maybe 0z changes all that. NORMALLY, id be all in with regards to a northern shift. 18z NAM does jackpot the southern apps, but you can usually cut those numbers in 1/2.....time will tell. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Would never use the word optimism. I never believe it unless I see it. LOL. The 18z NAM admittedly looks a bit too wound-up. I really want to see the trends at 0z and 12z tomorrow. Yes, the angle is not good for TRI at this point. What I find interesting is that the precip shield has jogged west. Now the 18z runs have fooled us many times this month. I am banking on a late NE trend. If I lived between Knoxville and Chatt, I would be licking my chops. NAM needs some support or it is an outlier. Did you see Robert's write-up on the SE forum? Also, Jeff, great write-up here and thank you. I figure this is the last storm for a while so I am going to enjoy it. Nut, keep us level man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 At this point, cutting them in half would be a 3-8 inch snow for most of the state. I'm more concerned about the extent of the QPF shield getting as many of us as possible with a decent amount so we can all see at least a few inches. It's funny, Carvers and I usually think alike........but in this case, he's optimistic, and I am not. I don't like the axis of precip at this point, maybe 0z changes all that. NORMALLY, id be all in with regards to a northern shift. 18z NAM does jackpot the southern apps, but you can usually cut those numbers in 1/2.....time will tell.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Would never use the word optimism. I never believe it unless I see it. LOL. The 18z NAM admittedly looks a bit too wound-up. I really want to see the trends at 0z and 12z tomorrow. Yes, the angle is not good for TRI at this point. What I find interesting is that the precip shield has jogged west. Now the 18z runs have fooled us many times this month. I am banking on a late NE trend. Mif Imlived between Knoxville and Chatt, I would be licking my chops. NAM needs some support or it is an outlier. Did you see Robert's write-up on the SE forum? Also, Jeff, great write-up here and thank you. I figure this is the last storm for a while so I am going to enjoy it. Nut, keep us level man. It may amount to nothing, but the 12z GGEM showed a very similar event to this one around day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It may amount to nothing, but the 12z GGEM showed a very similar event to this one around day 7. Excellent. I have not even looked at the extended today. Just going off memory from yesterday. Many thanks to Reb this AM for not reposting that the word location autocorrected to lactation on one of my earlier posts. 18z GFS on deck. Great disco today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Our first pinned storm thread! Reb assures me the GFS will be on board at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I just think the NAM is as much of an amped up outlier as the GFS is with its depiction of nothing....... Something like the GGEM or EURO is likely, maybe a general 2-4 inch snow for parts if the southern 1/2 of TN..........maxing out in the Carolina's. I saw where DT mentioned the ensembles for the 12z Euro turned everyone over to rain in the Carolina's. interesting....... a LOT of specifics to work out on this one. Only thing I am fairly confident of, is a nice snow 2-4, maybe 6 inch lollipops SOMEWHERE in the state of TN....lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Panovich update with video http://www.wcnc.com/news/local/Potential-for-a-high-impact-winter-storm-next-week-in-the-Carolinas-244276141.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 DT really hinted he thinks this should go up the coast. Basically called one model's solution a bad name when it took OTS. If this turns the corner inside or at Hatteras..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS moved towards the Euro/Canadian solution. I would take the NAM/Euro blend at this point. I would never bet on a wx model, but I think the 0z GFS takes another step towards caving UNLESS new data is ingested. We are really at the point where the 0z models are going to begin ingesting better data through tomorrow night. Could see one last "wild" swing...my guess(and it is purely that) the system jogs north but not radically. I think eventually this bends up the coast a tad. The implications for such a move are large for the eastern Valley. But I am like 55/45 on that...45 that it goes south. Again, a guess...but who really knows this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Continue seeing a N shift on todays models.The Euro showed 2"S of I40,3" HWY 64 TO I-20,think you guys in the orographic zones will do good.I'll start posting text tonight for everyone starting with the NAM 0Z.Think the GFS is catching up,but who knows if its wrong Edit:Im going by the clown map also,but i'm really surprised at the lack of a warm nose,but it's there towards the SE Valley but not as bad as i thought it'd be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Warm nose SHOULD be held at bay, this is a wave on the front more so than a gulf low winding up..... The ridge in Baffin Island almost assures high pressure underneath it in the OH Valley....... providing a continuous feed of cold air. The setup could change of course, which could change these thoughts, but we are pretty close to game time...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 MRX still has rain in the forecast but did put out a Special Weather Statement and this graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 There is some key differences in the 500 MB.All three models show basically a ULL riding underneath and one at top at that same time frame i'm gonna go by the 0z Tuesday.But the ULL riding on top and one at bottom are much different.The GFS is much faster with the ULL on top and thus shows a more surpressed system.The Euro rides the ULL on top of the other ULL and the NAM is slower on top with the ULL at bottom Edit:Basically is what i see the first piece of energy on the GFS obove is further E and the energy lies with the system below,thus is why the GFS shows a surpressed system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Warm nose SHOULD be held at bay, this is a wave on the front more so than a gulf low winding up..... The ridge in Baffin Island almost assures high pressure underneath it in the OH Valley....... providing a continuous feed of cold air. The setup could change of course, which could change these thoughts, but we are pretty close to game time...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Not trying to stalk your posts, tnweathernut! Anyway, the other day we were all worried about the warm nose. Now, we don't have enough moisture in TRI. I can't decide which problem I would rather have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42782-radio-show-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Stove, if you have time would you mind showing the QPF from select cities in the region from the Euro ensembles? I think you could guess which one i'm looking for lol. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42782-radio-show-thread/ Thanks man, looking forward to it. Here are the 18z NAM Cobb snow totals: Tri-Cities 7.5 Knoxville 9.0 Chattanooga 3.1 Crossville 7.3 Nashville 3.6 Jackson 7.4 Memphis 6.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Stove, if you have time would you mind showing the QPF from select cities in the region from the Euro ensembles? I think you could guess which one i'm looking for lol. Thanks in advance! Control shows your area 3+" if that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Stove, if you have time would you mind showing the QPF from select cities in the region from the Euro ensembles? I think you could guess which one i'm looking for lol. Thanks in advance! Good idea, I totally forgot about those. Let me get these kids to bed and I'll post what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If the NAM keeps showing the storm on the OZ,i'm going to start getting excited.There should be better data,this is starting to fall in the short range models and not the Deterministic models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good idea, I totally forgot about those. Let me get these kids to bed and I'll post what they show. sweet thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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