Mr Bob Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Dicey at best here in Knoxville for much more than a dusting if that were verified exactly as is...fortunately...happy to not be in the 72hr bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Have to think we have one more major shift on the models as the energy gets sampled better. Would guess a slight jog north on precip. 0z runs tonight will set the stage. As is, I-40 corridor looking good in TN and NC with a slight jog north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Dicey at best here in Knoxville for much more than a dusting if that were verified exactly as is...fortunately...happy to not be in the 72hr bullseye! What am I missing Bob? 850 temps look great, surface warms to 34 degrees during part of it, with about .4 QPF. Snow map shows around 4 inches for TYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I want no part of that Euro, a big fat brown ground for me on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What am I missing Bob? 850 temps look great, surface warms to 34 degrees during part of it, with about .4 QPF. Snow map shows around 4 inches for TYS. Some of the heaviest snows in TYS will happen with a temp of 33F - and that's heavy dense wet snow. We got spoiled with the 4" we saw late last month, but that was fine arctic powder that quickly melted away. Have to think we have one more major shift on the models as the energy gets sampled better. Would guess a slight jog north on precip. 0z runs tonight will set the stage. As is, I-40 corridor looking good in TN and NC with a slight jog north. I'm a few miles north of I40. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What am I missing Bob? 850 temps look great, surface warms to 34 degrees during part of it, with about .4 QPF. Snow map shows around 4 inches for TYS. Probably nothing...hard to read the SV graphics on my phone...looks like the best moisture went right across Chatt...the simple fact I am looking at it on my phone speaks volumes for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Be very interested to see the tabular data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Anyone with AccuPro care to share some text for a few locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 with a situation like this a north trend is likely for precipitation so those north of here shouldn't worry much. At the same time I would not expect a north shift in the freezing line much though, unless this really amps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well It looks like i may miss out on this yet again. Would love to see this jog a little NW but just dont think it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 15z SREF mean is about the same as 09z. .25-.50 mean from around Nash East and Southern KY south to North Alabama and Georgia through 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well It looks like i may miss out on this yet again. Would love to see this jog a little NW but just dont think it will happen. Cotton the Euro snow map ends up showing 2-3 up your way, actually plateau east gets at least that. TRI pushing 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREF below 32 surface temp probs are best from 40 north at 80+ percent during the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SLP sliding across southern GA at 96 and moves up coast. If it winds up at all and this is coming north. You all know this going to shift north or south. Just be glad for the set-up. I'll take this set-up all day for TN. Details beginning to come into focus but still, many things could happen. Chatt looking good ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Would appear the Euro is weaker than 12z NAM solution. If we split the difference, everyone is in business. Also, with the last system, the NAM smoked the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 http://wxbrad.com/?p=6428 Brad Panovich's thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 http://wxbrad.com/?p=6428 Brad Panovich's thoughts To me, that is what I think happens. No way to be sure on amounts. But that may be where we finish. Glad you shared that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Jeff, thanks for posting your forecast. That sounds encouraging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 From MRX..... GFS SEEMS TO BETHE MOST CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...WITH ADDITIONAL MODELSALIGNING TO THE GFS OUTPUT. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 From MRX..... Because of course they did! LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What is MRX smoking??? For all I know, GFS may wind up being right, but to say that other models are aligning to the GFS output is inaccurate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What is MRX smoking??? For all I know, GFS may wind up being right, but to say that other models are aligning to the GFS output is inaccurate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The dumb thing is, all models are very consistent. They just all show a different storm strength and track. The GFS is an extreme outlier at this point. They said it had sref support, but were apparently drunk as the SREF mean shows .25-.50 over all of Eastern Tennessee and the GFS shows basically nothing. The Euro/NAM/GGEM are much closer together than the GFS is to anything else. Now it may play out that the GFS is right, but that reasoning is hilarious to me. They did decide to abandon the GFS after the main event and go with the Euro for the switch to rain portion of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm feeling optimistic about Mon-Tue, so started the separate thread. Jeff, thanks for posting your forecast. That sounds encouraging! Seems I'm more bullish than MRX. That is a change, but I feel good about my forecast thoughts. They may be thinking the same regarding potential, but it is not time to go public yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like another NAM weenie run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 At hour 57...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's shifting a bit more south than last run too. Sharp cut-off with snow tapering quickly down my way and with a mix along the TN/Ga border. Looks 40 and south is gonna get jackpotted again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yep, .75-1 inch qpf in the southern half of the state. 1-1.25 along the NC border counties towards Cocke by hour 66. Still snowing at that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Through 72, all but Clarksville to Dyersburg have .5+ qpf. Massive snows in the Smokies and Southern Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am telling you all, this may jog north. Has been happening all winter. Cold has not driven as far south as modeled all winter. The initial precip looks to ride that boundary. Would you rather be north or south of the bulls eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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