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This is the latest from MRX.  

 

000
FXUS64 KMRX 130221
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
920 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH
OF IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AREA RADARS REVEAL THAT SNOW
HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING...AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT INCREASES WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...SNOW HAS INCREASED FURTHER
UPSTREAM OVER MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL...WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVERNIGHT.


AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE SNOWFALL FORECAST UNCHANGED THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WITHOUT ANY CHANGES. HOWEVER...WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THE ZONE
FORECASTS THIS EVENING TO LOWER TEMPS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER AIR HAS CREATED MORE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING THIS EVENING.
&&

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4.5" at my location near the south fork of the Holston, south of Bristol in Sullivan Co. Moderate snow right now. I'm thinking the best snowfall rates here will be after midnight. Perhaps the heaviest around 1-3 am. The abundant moisture feed will still be in place and the northern side of the 500 mb upper low will be closing in over the ridge and valley by then.

 

I must say, we're really lucking out here. The temperature at my location is 22º and as such is producing a snow that isn't the heavy wet variety. The tree limbs and lines may be spared and counter widespread outages. On the other hand, we may end up with higher totals than forecast.

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I just pulled this post by a met from the Southeast Mountain thread.  This is coming our way.  All I got to say is WOW!!!  I have NEVER witnessed 6" per hour snow fall rates. I've been through 3"-4" rates when we got caught in a blizzard in Missouri in late December 2012. I thought THAT was impressive.  But this?  Just wow.

 

Edit: It seems to have lost that strength it had over in Alabama.  Hopefully we see some redevelopment of those super heavy deformation bands.

 

 

HurricaneTracker, on 12 Feb 2014 - 9:37 PM, said:snapback.png

Winner winner!

Radar loops and models all show the upper low moving due east over the southern Apps. This was well forecast! Low has closed off and you can see why it's so important to have that in winter storms for heavy snows.

Robert is excellent. Birmingham had 6" PER HOUR this evening and it's moving east.

We should have a lull between midnight and 4am, and then boom!

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Is there any concern about the huge dry hole coming NE out of Georgia right now?

Will it fill in as the overall system moves?

No guarantees there won't be a lull, but all indications are as the upper low continues to amp up, we're in for a blasting.

 

EDIT: latest from Robert

 

WXSOUTH @WxSouth 1m

Looking at latest trends. East TN, west NC, north GA and southwest VA will be in for a good clocking tonight and tomorrow AM. #thundersnow

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On WBIR's futurecast radar, it looks like it quits at ~1 a.m. maybe & then starts back until 7ish. I can't tell how hard it's snowing though. The color looks similar to now.

 

See if anyone else has faster eyes than I do. When I pause, it goes back to start which is no help.

 

http://www.wbir.com/story/weather/2013/09/12/interactive-radar/2807273/

 

edit: It stops sometime between 1 & 3, but I can't tell when for sure.

 

It all depends on how the bands set up and if you get under one or not.  No model will get that exactly right.

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On WBIR's futurecast radar, it looks like it quits at ~1 a.m. maybe & then starts back until 7ish. I can't tell how hard it's snowing though. The color looks similar to now.

 

See if anyone else has faster eyes than I do. When I pause, it goes back to start which is no help.

 

http://www.wbir.com/story/weather/2013/09/12/interactive-radar/2807273/

 

edit: It stops sometime between 1 & 3, but I can't tell when for sure.

Prediction radar disseminated for public use has its limitations. As I understand, it essentially is a user-friendly display of the in-house model output. It's a useful tool for garnering a general feel, but does not capture dynamic events such as this very well.

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Is there any concern about the huge dry hole coming NE out of Georgia right now?

Will it fill in as the overall system moves?

 

That dry slot will mostly miss East TN to the east over Western NC has the moisture axis stays put over us. We have probably seen the heaviest of the snow of the event in most places as everything gradually weakens. But this is still a long duration event so it will pile up. RAP does show everything winding down by 3-5 a.m. but it is tracking the 500mb low right up against the mountains and has precip breaking out again after the sun rises. This is quite an interesting storm to track and to look back on.

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That dry slot will mostly miss East TN to the east over Western NC has the moisture axis stays put over us. We have probably seen the heaviest of the snow of the event in most places as everything gradually weakens. But this is still a long duration event so it will pile up. RAP does show everything winding down by 3-5 a.m. but it is tracking the 500mb low right up against the mountains and has precip breaking out again after the sun rises. This is quite an interesting storm to track and to look back on.

That 500mb low track is I believe why MRX said thundersnow was possible in the southern mountains.

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