John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MRX afd says the mix/rain went up to Athens but to expect the warm 850s to slip back south of the border this evening. Also look for possible thundersnow in the Southern Mountains especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm wondering because it's been all snow at my house in Knoxville, and the ground is coated white. Nice! You must be on the good side of Knoxville. I thought you were Cedar Bluff area? I have nothing on the ground except water. -Oops, sorry that was banter. If this is ok, from Raysum via Wright Weather in the SE Forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 19z RAP hour 18 (deform still over parts if east TN) and total 18 hour qpf. If the RAP is right, someone is getting buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Knox folks help me out. Knox Co is half yellow/half orange in that map tnweathernut posted? Sorry, I do better with SE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice! You must be on the good side of Knoxville. I thought you were Cedar Bluff area? I have nothing on the ground except water. -Oops, sorry that was banter. If this is ok, from Raysum via Wright Weather in the SE Forum I'm near Pleasant Ridge at 1150' so that is probably helping me out. Also, the NWS graphic has changed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MRX evening disco... INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN MIDDLE TN VALLEYFROM SOUTHERN LOW. LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE RISE TODAY ANDWILL MAINTAIN IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT. +3CWARM LAYER...SHOWING UP NICELY IN 12/18Z FFC SOUNDING PROVING TO BEINTERESTING FEATURE IN RELATION TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSSSOUTHERN AREAS. THESE SWINGS IN PRECIP TYPE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS FAR NAS ATHENS MID DAY TODAY. A DOWN VALLEY LOWER LAYER FLOW IS TAKINGSHAPE AND THE WARM LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TN BORDERSHORTLY. H70 DEFORMATION ZONE MODELED NICELY AND ESTABLISHING ALONGNW MRX CWA BORDER. LATEST SAT PIX VERIFYING POSITION. SNOW BANDSSHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BESTFRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED FROM 13/00-13/06Z. ORIENTATION/PIVOT OFDEFORMATION ZONE OVERNIGHT SUPPORTS SNOW LINGERING IN NE AREAS EARLYTHU. A CRACK OF THUNDERSNOW POSSIBLE WHEN COLDER CORE MID LEVEL TEMPSSLIDE IN OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE ALONG SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE AND LEANED COOLER FOR THU EXPECTING CUFIELD TO LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's been snowing in West Knoxville since lunch time. It got heavy for a while & is now very light. It has all melted. The precip is filling in nicely down to the southwest. Nice rotation too. This thing is starting to wrap up & that is gonna make for some nice snows. Good thing is that the bulk of heavier precip is going to come in after nightfall, likely at or around 7:00PM. Temps will be under 32 by then. I think it's looking good. All it takes is a couple of heavy deformation bands & the snow will pile up quick. From the looks of the precip field southwest of us it's going to be heavy once it starts. It's also not moving very fast, so there should be some long duration snows for most areas. At least from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Morning's mist and recently occasional very light rain just added tiny snowflakes here south of Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Finally some good snow here in North Alabama. Just hope now that the ground isn't too saturated to get a decent accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So, Jeff, you feel the models were on the light side 24-36 hrs ago for TRI when you say modest OR do you mean the modest totals forecast for this afternoon were inaccurate? I am assuming you mean the NAM and GFS...Anyway, great write-up as usual. All systems go. Models MRX and the WPC all seemed light for TRI 36 hours ago. Then when MRX bumped up everywhere I liked it in TRI but was a skeptic in CHA. Turns out MRX will be right from TRI to Knoxville, but Chatty blew .1 to .2 liquid on rain this afternoon. Now all of southeast Tennessee is changed over to snow for the duration. Correlation Coefficient confirms on dual pole radar. Keep in mind CC is not some clunky guess based on gridded data. CC is an actual physical measurement. Light pink, indicating uniform precip, just filled in over all the red uncorrelated junk over Chatty. Far northeast AL and northwest corner of GA are also all snow now. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm confused now on MRX zone forecast. They've dropped off the day and have the night only with the same 2-4". So is that now the total accumulation expected? I don't see that anywhere else on their site (yet). The two local mets that I've heard said most of the accumulation is expected after 5:00, so that's why I'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm confused now on MRX zone forecast. They've dropped off the day and have the night only with the same 2-4". So is that now the total accumulation expected? I don't see that anywhere else on their site (yet). The two local mets that I've heard said most of the accumulation is expected after 5:00, so that's why I'm confused. Most mets I've heard both Chatt and Knox have said even this morning that the majority of accumulation would occur at night. I can say that snow has started back in ernest IMBY about 15 miles south of Kingston. Temps have also fallen 3 degrees in the last hour. Sitting at 33 now. Looking at moisture that is still yet to pivot through I'm not throwing in the towel for MRX official totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From the SE Forum. I don't know what it means, but for anyone who does and is too busy to keep up other places. I believe that's for in the morning. From Calculus1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Last forecasting post from the non-forecaster re: the track of the low PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD420 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014VALID 00Z THU FEB 13 2014 - 00Z SUN FEB 16 2014...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH WIDESPREAD SOCIETAL IMPACTSCONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...POISED TO BEGIN TRACKINGUP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT.WHILE MINOR DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK REMAIN...THELATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 1WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN ANDTRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST-MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE PERIOD.OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From the SE Forum. I don't know what it means, but for anyone who does and is too busy to keep up other places. I believe that's for in the morning. From Calculus1 Looks like wrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 A very heavy 41db band is moving towards Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Love how the dry pockets are filling up on the radar in East TN right now. Big snows coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Models MRX and the WPC all seemed light for TRI 36 hours ago. Then when MRX bumped up everywhere I liked it in TRI but was a skeptic in CHA. Turns out MRX will be right from TRI to Knoxville, but Chatty blew .1 to .2 liquid on rain this afternoon. Now all of southeast Tennessee is changed over to snow for the duration. Correlation Coefficient confirms on dual pole radar. Keep in mind CC is not some clunky guess based on gridded data. CC is an actual physical measurement. Light pink, indicating uniform precip, just filled in over all the red uncorrelated junk over Chatty. Far northeast AL and northwest corner of GA are also all snow now. Bring it! Jeff. Looked like those storms in FL(and I saw Robert mention this) cut some precip off this afternoon. Looks like it has filled back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Last I saw there was a pretty impressive line of storms sweeping their way, looked almost like the derecho from the blizzard of 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 A very heavy 41db band is moving towards Knoxville. Oh yeah! Let the games begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Awesome Tracker. Staying strong down here in the Southern foothills. Snowing very heavy here. I live south of Maryville close to Tallassee. It's been snowing hard for 20 minutes & the road & grass is covered about 1/2 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I wish we had someone from Cookeville, I'm curious if rare e to w downslope warming is causing the rain on the highland rim or if that's actually snow and the p-type radar is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just went outside and measured in several spots. We got almost 2 inches already and it's still coming down hard. My location is just to the south of Maryville out off of Highway 129 toward Tallassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianP Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 3.25 at my house in cleveland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Huge heavy band about to pivot in over the next hour. Looking great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Believe you are right about the Florida thunderstorms. Jeff. Looked like those storms in FL(and I saw Robert mention this) cut some precip off this afternoon. Looks like it has filled back in. Thankfully it filled back in nicely. At one point on satellite one could discern 3 distinct areas of lift: main baraclinic leaf over the Carolinas; new lift over AL/GA; and the final comma head over MS. I'm just tickled the last two are working out beautifully for all of East Tenn. And our friends just south of the TN border. Many times they won't, but tonight they are very dynamic and with plenty of moisture to work with. Sometimes everything goes right - even in the South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Believe you are right about the Florida thunderstorms. Thankfully it filled back in nicely. At one point on satellite one could discern 3 distinct areas of lift: main baraclinic leaf over the Carolinas; new lift over AL/GA; and the final comma head over MS. I'm just tickled the last two are working out beautifully for all of East Tenn. And our friends just south of the TN border. Many times they won't, but tonight they are very dynamic and with plenty of moisture to work with. Sometimes everything goes right - even in the South! Definitely glad you all in the southern part of the Valley could get some snow and winter. Chatt deserves it. Glad our folks from Alabama, north Georgia, and Mississippi are doing well. Here is the latest RAP 23UTC run for posterity. Storm on the coast just holds on for dear life....dark yellow is .80 liquid water. #qpf Time to get Nashville a storm....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So we here in Bama may see snow lasting all night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like a deformation band may be setting up south of Knoxville towards Maryville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like a deformation band may be setting up south of Knoxville towards Maryville. Yes, I've been under it for a bit. Heavy snow. There is another one just south/southeast of where I-75 and I-40 meet west of Knoxville. Looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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