John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Upped everyone else's totals significantly in what seems a reflection of model trends. Left me in a WWA for 1-4 inches. Just have to set back and see if it's right I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM came in more moist. Now has .20mm (.88 inches) totals over as far as west Cumberland Gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Upped everyone else's totals significantly in what seems a reflection of model trends. Left me in a WWA for 1-4 inches. Just have to set back and see if it's right I guess. Good luck John! Morristown did indeed up the totals for the TRI folks. Now saying 5 to 10! EVENT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sleeting in chatt does anyone have any new info on the 850's It's got very quiet here for a long time that makes me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 6z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 new by MRX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Chatt and Knox fell off nicely last night temperature wise...18 dew point at TYS right now.....32 over 27 at CHA... Winds still out of the NE....things are looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WBIR said this morning it's going to be a rain/snow mix here in the Central Valley and that's it doesn't come in until later. Then they said heavy snow after 7pm. Was hoping for no rain with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WBIR said this morning it's going to be a rain/snow mix here in the Central Valley and that's it doesn't come in until later. Then they said heavy snow after 7pm. Was hoping for no rain with this. i don't think we have to worry about rain with this. evaporative cooling will keep temps just cold enough to remain mostly snow, although it could mix at times to start. this was confirmed by Robert(wxsouth) and Todd Howell, two of the best mets in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar is looking fantastic this morning by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The pressure on this storm is really forecast to drop. Mr. Bob, how low do you think it goes? Have seen some models approaching rare air as the storm goes northward...Good luck to you all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Am starting to worry that this may be an ice/freezing rain event in Nashville, at least on the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The pressure on this storm is really forecast to drop. Mr. Bob, how low do you think it goes? Have seen some models approaching rare air as the storm goes northward...Good luck to you all! Rap has a 1008 sitting off Tallahasee 6 hrs from now,looking at the mesoscale map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's coming down!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The pressure on this storm is really forecast to drop. Mr. Bob, how low do you think it goes? Have seen some models approaching rare air as the storm goes northward...Good luck to you all! 00Z Euro seems on track right now surface-wise so I would like to think it has a good chance to be a sub 992 by 18z tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm thinking about going outside and taping a ruler or a yardstick to stick and putting it in the ground. This might be epic for Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 00Z Euro seems on track right now surface-wise so I would like to think it has a good chance to be a sub 992 by 18z tomorrow.... Does not really impact us, but I have seen some low 970s near New England once it gets there. GFS/UKMET/RGEM. Seems to show this storm is going to be a bruiser. The Euro has really owned this storm. Back in form it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z NAM backed-off totals some. The track looks great, but the precip field looks less impressive. The RAP has hinted at this but has not gone there. May just be ebb and flow, maybe speeds up, or better data? Anyone else notice this...just watching trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z NAM backed-off totals some. The track looks great, but the precip field looks less impressive. The RAP has hinted at this but has not gone there. May just be ebb and flow, maybe speeds up, or better data? Anyone else notice this...just watching trends. You can see why local professionals have been cautious with amounts on this one. If you look at the water vapor imagry it all looks great. Models have trended slightly east with the heavier precip, but it's probably best to keep in mind there will probably be quite a bit of back filling after the initial band of precip sets up and snows on us. If you take a look at the RGEM, it has been pretty insistent on a good thump of snow, followed by lighter snows, then ramping back up for some moderate snow toward tomorrow morning.(snowing till around noon or so tomorrow). I have often noticed the dynamics (if strong enough) can pull the main precip back west about 25-50 miles further than what short range modeling predicts. It will be interesting to see what happens with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm getting very worried about warm air down here in Chatt Thanks for posting ChattChaser, this is a great example of a banter post. I hope the warm air concerns don't make it to reality for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Robert just posted about a closed upper level low here in North Alabama. Is that why we cant get below the freezing mark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at surface map on Mesoscale, you can see warm air trying to feed up into the east TN valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can see why local professionals have been cautious with amounts on this one. If you look at the water vapor imagry it all looks great. Models have trended slightly east with the heavier precip, but it's probably best to keep in mind there will probably be quite a bit of back filling after the initial band of precip sets up and snows on us. If you take a look at the RGEM, it has been pretty insistent on a good thump of snow, followed by lighter snows, then ramping back up for some moderate snow toward tomorrow morning.(snowing till around noon or so tomorrow). I have often noticed the dynamics (if strong enough) can pull the main precip back west about 25-50 miles further than what short range modeling predicts. It will be interesting to see what happens with this one. Just looked at the 13UTC RAP and it looks very good. Based on some other conversations, the NAM is a bit on its own...even now. It has been all over the place. Just watching trends...but the RAP looks good. I will hold w/ my 8"...looks about right. Right now, this depends purely on how much this deepens. edit: So basically, I will consider its trends but not overall output. It still has a great track, precip is just less. Most of the models have exactly the same track, maybe even a bit west...but the precip shield is limited. However, when you look at the radar it looks as if the precip is further north and west than any model predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is the latest RAP 13 UTC...Looks good. It is actually shifting a bit west w/ the precip shield in our area. Some downsloping over TRI. Event is still ongoing even with these totals - ie not over yet. I don't use the RAP snow maps because they are almost always underdone. This is total accumulated precip. Storm looks on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking at surface map on Mesoscale, you can see warm air trying to feed up into the east TN valley. Yep, I'm pushing 36 right now. But, with a dew point of 21 I'm expecting/hoping this will drop once we get some returns over here. MRX says steady temp of 31 today. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At 9:30AM MRX said they are actually considering increasing their snow totals for their CWA based on current trends. They anticipate moderate snowfall throughout the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At 9:30AM MRX said they are actually considering increasing their snow totals for their CWA based on current trends. They anticipate moderate snowfall throughout the night. Good catch. edit: The RAP 14UTC run is really amping things tonight for all of E TN and north Alabama for that matter.. .DISCUSSION...NO SHORT TERM CHANGE NEEDED WITH CURRENT FORECAST. INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST NW OF MRX CWA. LOW LEVEL COOLER AIRMASS EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 6000 FEET EAST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AXIS SETS UP NICELY WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG NW EDGE OF MRX CWA. LOWER LEVELS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN UP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ALONG INITIAL EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BUT CHANGE OVER OR ALL SNOW MOST LIKELY. CONTEMPLATING RAISING SNOW AMOUNTS SOME IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD WHEN PROLONGED MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST PLATEAU STILL LOOKS GOOD IN ADVISORY WITH LESS THAN 4 INCHES EXPECTED BUT MINOR PATTERN SHIFT COULD CHANGE OUTLOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep, I'm pushing 36 right now. But, with a dew point of 21 I'm expecting/hoping this will drop once we get some returns over here. MRX says steady temp of 31 today. We'll see. Looking at surface wet-bulb map, yeah you guys should probably be ok. Something to keep an eye on though, also something some of the models were picking up on late yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 All systems go as far as I can tell. RAP looks good enough to me. Here is current radar out of Huntsville. Does anyone notice the slim band northwest of Chatty that is pivoting west/southwest? To me that means the phase is in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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