John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS seems to be on it's weaker/further south track still. Dumps decent snow in Arkansas and then streaks 1-3 inches across Northern Miss and Northern Alabama, very light snow across most of Tennessee, south of 40 and East of 1-81 before picking back up again in SE North Carolina. I'll give em this, not sure which model is remotely close to being right, but they're all sticking to their own guns with similar solutions from run to run. But none of them can agree on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro leaves us with .02.so its buying into the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 UKMET, Candian, Euro, JMA, NAM vs GFS. Who ya got? Would be the coup of the winter if the GFS pulled off its "nothing" scenario. The NAM has painted precip in TN in the same spots for almost four straight runs. The Euro as well. I think the GFS just doesn't have it. Still 3-4 days out depending on location. Does appear a scenario is now being honed in IMO. Barring a March storm(which could easily happen) or late Feb storm...this is the storm that breaks winter in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 That southern cutoff is so sharp on the NAM. Hard to get excited about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Latest Tweet from Robert: WXSOUTH @WxSouth 6m New NAM is out and its a big Winter Storm, various P-types TN Valley, Carolinas, north GA. 850 low track hits TN, NC hard with snow, sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 And from Facebook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 And from Facebook: Capture.JPG He did say that a day or two ago,he's been on a roll lately also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 VolMan. Saw that too...The NAM has been hammering that same track for about five runs. The Euro and Canadian hint at it as well. Saw someone on the SE forum say this basically...If the 12z runs show the same thing today, bout time to get serious about this look. Still holding my fire until those runs. Hard not to get excited. edit: tnweathernut...what do you think about this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You're right, Carver...Robert has been consistent and accurate these past few weeks. If this thing is still on track this evening, then we might have something. Seems like the 11th-12th timeframe has been mentioned for a long time. Our local Channel 11 guy gave a little reference to this storm this morning, but didn't really discuss at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow... a 50 mile jog north would give us quite the snow....probably the biggest since 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nice west to east band of snow - looks like the trend is south of 40 jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 oh no I'm in the jackpot zone! At least it's not 140hrs out and its more like 60hrs. Don't like being in the jackpot before the event as it sets up disappointment if the totals are not met. If I get an inch I'll be happy enough (at least I'm telling myself that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If we keep seeing a shift to the NW like the NAM and GEM show,games on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 VolMan. Saw that too...The NAM has been hammering that same track for about five runs. The Euro and Canadian hint at it as well. Saw someone on the SE forum say this basically...If the 12z runs show the same thing today, bout time to get serious about this look. Still holding my fire until those runs. Hard not to get excited. edit: tnweathernut...what do you think about this one? I have been following, and I find it interesting there are still such differences with the NAM and GFS. GFS still very weak, NAM very strong. USUALLY, I would feel very comfortable being on the north end of a 5-8 inch snow band under 84 hours out. I don't this time with the axis being west to east and zero gulf involvement. I think someone is going to get a thump, maybe a rare I-40 and points south type deal if the NAM works out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GFS still playing the roll of Dr. No...but edging closer to the others. tnweathernut, I can't tell. The angle of approach, like w/ hurricanes as you know, always helps. Going to watch the Euro, Canadian, and UKMET to see if the GFS and NAM are on crack. Based purely on the winter's trend, have to think this jogs just a tad north. If the non-American models hold at 12z...going to have to say the GFS caves because it's leaning that way now. Hope somebody in the Valley, even if it's not us, gets a great snow. If the Valley gets a snow, have to think KTRI is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The RGEM seems to be on board with a NAM like solution. Only goes out to 48 hours but lookin good at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The NAM paints the biggest snow here since the superstorm. Even outdoing our 8.5 inch snow from 2011. Until this gets better support from other models, I'm going to remain skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The NAM paints the biggest snow here since the superstorm. Even outdoing our 8.5 inch snow from 2011. Until this gets better support from other models, I'm going to remain skeptical. Always wise to cast a wary eye towards extreme solutions. They do happen but there is a reason they are rare. Looks like this will bring a pattern change...sometimes those storms are bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GFS still playing the roll of Dr. No...but edging closer to the others. tnweathernut, I can't tell. The angle of approach, like w/ hurricanes as you know, always helps. Going to watch the Euro, Canadian, and UKMET to see if the GFS and NAM are on crack. Based purely on the winter's trend, have to think this jogs just a tad north. If the non-American models hold at 12z...going to have to say the GFS caves because it's leaning that way now. Hope somebody in the Valley, even if it's not us, gets a great snow. If the Valley gets a snow, have to think KTRI is involved.. I feel like if anything this trends se. The NAM looks way too amped up. It could be right but given how the NAM over amplifies things I would assume that's the case here which is causing it to be too far nw.the RGEM looks like it would not be near as amped as the NAM. Of course it only goes to 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The NAM paints the biggest snow here since the superstorm. Even outdoing our 8.5 inch snow from 2011. Until this gets better support from other models, I'm going to remain skeptical. I always cut NAM snow in half when I look at those maps. It still would be an awesome storm for many. I don't have access to Euro at the moment, did 0z show TN any love on the overrunning event? Seems I'm hearing it was south but not far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 . I feel like if anything this trends se. The NAM looks way too amped up. It could be right but given how the NAM over amplifies things I would assume that's the case here which is causing it to be too far nw.the RGEM looks like it would not be near as amped as the NAM. Of course it only goes to 48 hours Obviously at 12z the RGEM, Ukie and Canadian favor the Euro track which only gives NE TN a swipe and everyone else is out in the cold. Agree with Stove, always cut NAM totals in half. Similar track last week landed TRI and TYS with 4-5 inches of snow. Euro IMO is a tad south. GFS is out to lunch. NAM is too strong. Take a track down the middle. It would be rare, but not unprecedented, for TN not to score with this set-up. IMO there are very few mechanisms to prevent this from going north. Cold is not strong. No blocking to force it to dig. Looks like a slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 My current thoughts on storm vs no snow are simple. The GFS is very likely on crack. When the NAM and EURO are in agreement, you can almost bank it. My current thoughts on a thump of snow would be an I-40 and south event, perhaps into northern MS, AL, and GA. I hope the moisture field is more expansive than shown and KTRI can get involved. As far as amounts, I'd cut the NAM amounts down to a 4-6 type as the NAM is usually too aggressive on qpf. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The RGEM seems to be on board with a NAM like solution. Only goes out to 48 hours but lookin good at that point. Boy,that look sweet,namish look http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Canadian has a very NAM like solution. Euro on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z Canadian and Euro sounding somewhat similar. Not so different from 12Z NAM. Tad further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro definitely an all snow event in east tennessee...much better looking than earlier though not a ton of QPF...good run for Chatt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREF 21 member mean shows .25-.50 from the eastern highland rim and points eastward. .10-.25 west of there. 5 members shows less than .10 almost valley wide. 5 show .50-1.00 over a large portion of the Tennessee valley, mostly centered Eastern half with amounts over .75. One shows well over 1 inch with 1.5+ over the Chattanooga area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro looks to put down 2 to 4 inches I-40 south down into MS, AL, GA. Chatt may have 5 inches according to snow maps by hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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