John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They crept a little bit NW with the 3-6 line and a bit West with the 5-8 line it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone have a UKMet clown map? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 11 PM RPM run from Channel4 in Nashville appears to have far less mixing in east TN. Looks like a brief wave of changeover/mix runs from south to north around 1 PM, then changes quickly back to snow. Good trends overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My bet is it will ride that stationary front and come out somewhere in Ga.,unless of course it gets stronger and has a mind of its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WRF: All rain in North Alabama? Say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Stove, there's nothing on that radar anywhere close to 1 or 2 p.m. unless my eye reflexes are super slow. Are BamaChem and I just not understanding that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Simulated radar it will vary going forward, just another model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 May be right. That Cobb Data site shows snow starting 24 hours from the time the 0z GFS was run, if I understand what I'm looking at. ~3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How did the Canadian and UKMET look? Can someone post some images. Heard the UKMET blows a gasket of VA Beach. Gets down to 983 at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How did the Canadian and UKMET look? Can someone post some images. Heard the UKMET blows a gasket of VA Beach. Gets down to 983 at some point. It was posted in the banter,case u didn't already see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For Carvers from the SE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can we post DT's final call map here? Knox is inside the 8" line fairly easily and the TRI guys are a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro,looks good for all snow CHA .78 TYS .77 TRI .96 BNA. .11 thermal issues you wont see anything stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Griteater posted a map of the Euro at it's warmest 850s and no one goes warmer than -2 in our area. That's good, right? Jax, help! I'd copy the map but I don't know if I'm allowed to. *he said with focus on NC, but the map covers us, too. I don't know if that means we could have been warmer at a time they weren't. I'm not sure how that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 UKIE has great 850s for everyone except briefly in S.Middle TN. Also nice precip all the way back to Nashville of around .40 qpf. .6 to .75 over most of East Tennessee, more in the Southern Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What the heck - for you TRI guys from mp184 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 JKL must have bought something tonight about a further north/west precip shield, upgraded their SE counties to a Winter Storm Warning and issued a WWA 3 counties west from Virginia and points north and east. Wonder if MRX will put me in a warning or leave me in the WWA, I am showing up with 4-6 inches on most model runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WPC updated progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HPC's model disco from 20 minutes ago, 00z Euro/00z GFS/21z Sref. All of those looked good for 4-8+ over a very good portion of the region. The SREF had huge means and some off the charts members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 thanks john, radar looks good, looks like some returns showing up in middle tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also from HPC, Euro Op was East of it's Ens earlier. That's about the last of it for models. Time to let it right, some of the region should be seeing snow in the next few hours and DT's call map has it really coming in earlier than I had saw too, I think he had it snowing here by 7 am. MRX says after 10 for here. It was 1-4 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HPC QPF Discussion... ...CNTL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID DVLPMENT OF A NRN GULF OF MEX SFCLOW AS IT TRACKS NEWD TO NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THUR MRNG INRESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION AND PHASING OF S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SEWDFROM THE DAKOTAS WITH SRN STREAM S/WV MOVING EWD ACRS THE DEEPSOUTH. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW AND APPROACHING HEIGHTFALLS/DIVERGENCE ALOFT...INCREASING H85 SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOWLEVEL FLOW OF UP TO 40 KTS FROM THE GULF..AND STRENGTHENING ELYFLOW OFF THE ATL WILL LEAD TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLDARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION. MODEL QPFSCONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONVERGE FARTHER NORTH ACRS THE MID ATLCREGION..BUT SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES REMAINS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST.THE NAM LOOKED A BIT TOO HEAVY AND SOMEWHAT SLOW WITH NARROW AXISOF HEAVY PCPN FROM SRN AL INTO CNTL GA..WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDSFAVORING A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST ACRSTHE CNTL GULF REGION. OVERALL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE GFS/12Z EC FORAMOUNTS..THOUGH THERMAL PROFILES IN THE GFS ARE SOMEWHAT SUSPECTIN HOW QUICKLY THEY ERODE COLD AIR ACRS THE MID ATLC REGIONCOMPARED TO CONSENSUS..IE STGR ELY COMPONENT OF 85H FLOW NORTH OF85H LOW AS OPPOSED TO NELY. TREND ALSO AS BEEN TOWARD DVLPMENT OFMID LEVEL LOW TOWARD SRN APLCNS WHICH SHOULD HOLDDEFORMATION/COMMA HEAD ENHANCED AREA BACK THRU THE SRN APLCNS.PLEASE SEE THE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON THIS HEAVY ICING EVENT AND ABAND OF LIGHTER SNOWS TO THE NORTH OF THE FREEZING RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That part about the comma head holding back toward the Southern Apps may bury someone if it comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 John, can you get the zone forecast for Knoxville to show up? I get nothing. I can see the AFD, but nothing local for anywhere. I've tried two browsers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If I have the right time on the Cobb Data for the NAM, and I think I do, we come in at 6.7 now, a pretty big jump if it's right. From 4.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM was a fair tick wetter for East Tennessee especially that run. Tabby. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=TNZ069 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MRX just updated their WSW...now saying 4-8 inches for Knox and surrounding areas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks, John. I finally got it to come up. Moisture is getting close now. Up to near Sweetwater on the radar, maybe 30 miles away or less. I don't know how to tell if any of it reaches the ground, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MRX just updated their WSW...now saying 4-8 inches for Knox and surrounding areas! Oh goodness. I take some credit for that. I figured if I didn't buy batteries, we'd get a big old wet snow. (Sorry Mr. Bob for banter). That's up from 3-5. Sweet dreams to the folks asleep! ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * EVENT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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