Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Heard in the other forum that the 0z RGEM held serve (I am assuming in it's depiction of a western track similar to the Euro). I didn't know it was out by 10pm. Is there a source with it already out? Nut, phil882 is big on the RGEM and Euro. If those verify....anyway, somebody needs to get a pic of the RGEM up here. Pull some strings. An inland track puts the eastern valley in business. Saw a quote from HM today that basically said the RGEM track was plausible if the storm really cranked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Heard in the other forum that the 0z RGEM held serve (I am assuming in it's depiction of a western track similar to the Euro). I didn't know it was out by 10pm. Is there a source with it already out? I'm watching from two different sources, both only out to about hour 15. Looks good so far, temps not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Down here we need an RGEM solution to verify. A more wound up storm should result in more CAA on the NW side of the 850 low. We may still mix for a while as it passes just to our south, but that track is really ideal for east TN snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The temperature concern is real...Jeff and I have been talking about this from the get go...esp in Chatt... always with the CAD there is an opposite reaction on the western side of the Apps with the SE or even ESE winds allow for some warmer air up our side of the "Great Valley" before the sfc low swings by. I just think the large amounts will be mitigated somewhat by temps less than optimal....the 18z GFS offers a middle of the road idea which fits a lot of what I have been thinking...I still think there will be accums but be careful on the large amounts advertised by the Euro and RGEM...not saying it can't happen but just have some perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM is a bomb that tracks just inside Hattaras. The QPF field doesn't look as good as earlier runs though, will get a better idea when total precip is out for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z RGEM hour 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z RGEM hour 24! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z RGEM hour 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RGEM does something odd with the LP between 36 and 39. Takes it from over NE North Carolina to down off Hattaras. That may be the Metrocentre having an issue but it lists both panels as the 00z Wednesday run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is maybe a little lighter. Still has major thermal issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Robert also pointed out on FB that the 850 low is a bit further south than the other models. Said he wasn't adjusting his heavy snow axis? Explain. Also, the RAP looks like it is getting ready to set up the comma head over TN. Also, to extrapolate way out(relatively speaking)...looks like an inland track. Am I mis-reading that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone have a clown for this RGEM business? I can't get amwx maps to load at all now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Robert updated his map .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z GFS looks remarkably similar to 18z. Precip shield in E TN might be just a tad heavier w/ the backside over middle TN being a tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nut, phil882 is big on the RGEM and Euro. If those verify....anyway, somebody needs to get a pic of the RGEM up here. Pull some strings. An inland track puts the eastern valley in business. Saw a quote from HM today that basically said the RGEM track was plausible if the storm really cranked. I was taking mapquest trips for you in the middle of the night when a few people on the SE Forum were trying to tell them the Euro track was coming west. I'm riding with you, Carvers. This is your Valentine's storm you called for two weeks ago. I know this is mostly banter, but there are good analysts/mets who were saying this about 3-4 a.m. this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone have a clown for this RGEM business? I can't get amwx maps to load at all now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Howell mentioned evap cooling just now saying starting as a mix then switching to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I was taking mapquest trips for you in the middle of the night when a few people on the SE Forum were trying to tell them the Euro track was coming west. I'm riding with you, Carvers. This is your Valentine's storm you called for two weeks ago. I know this is mostly banter, but there are good analysts/mets who were saying this about 3-4 a.m. this morning. Mr. Bob had some good quotes to balance the RGEM and interesting temp profile comments in regards to opposite effects of CAD on this side of the Apps. Still can't tell if this goes inside Hatteras or not. Looks to me like it does barely...but I am only eyeballing the RAP. Not exactly scientific. We are really at the point IMO where the medium range models don't work quite as well because the aren't designed for the high resolution required by short range models. The RAP is the short term model I use. The Euro has held steady for two days on this while the rest have bent somewhat towards it. It would be a truly monumental defeat for that model(which has verified superbly for the past few weeks) to say the least. Now, I didn't call a particular day or storm...just picked a window during this time frame that looked right based on a flip to a warmer pattern, the way the wavelengths of the jet were setting up, climo, an interesting downward trend on the NAO(which prob didn't verify but may still have an image of...), and the fact an active southern stream pushing into that high over eastern Canada looked good. We'll see if it verifies. I have been wrong plenty of times before. I score this one as a win for the board, because we all brought good discussion to the table, enjoyed the journey, and are learning a lot. Just glad we have had a real storm to track this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Howell mentioned evap cooling just now saying starting as a mix then switching to all snow. So both Howell and Robert think evap cooling will save the day. I will sleep better tonight. Thanks Reb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yep, Carvers, Mr. Bob's explanation of CAD and the affect it can have here is the best I've read. I think I finally understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 @WxSouth: new GFS: Thundersnow chances just went up northern #gawx eastern #tnwx #ncwx western #scwx southern #vawx GFS closes off upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 David Glenn here in Chatty has snow totals of 3-5" but just said latest model data suggest higher amounts possible. CBS met here calling for 2-5" if there is a mix and 4-8" if all snow. David Glenn getting ready to update totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Aldrich saying 5-7 with maybe more central valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Delete this if needed and I'll repost in banter. Stove posts maps of RGEM and GGEM and I can't find the difference on google though I see them both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 00z GFS. Probably the last run of longer range models I'll look at. Very close to nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Delete this if needed and I'll repost in banter. Stove posts maps of RGEM and GGEM and I can't find the difference on google though I see them both. RGEM is the Canadian through 48 hours, GGEM is the same but through 240 hours. With RGEM part being higher resolution, that is my understanding. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thank you, Stove. It was going to be my guess that they were the same source, but different time or area of focus or something like that. That's the one that did so well two weeks ago, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is the 3z RAP for hour 18. Healthy looking radar although the model is depicting rain for most of the valley. Sometimes the RAP is a little warm but that is concerning. I guess it is human nature to try to find the negatives in all of this. Since this is at the start of the storm hopefully evaporational/dynamical cooling will transition this over to snow. This will be a thick, cement type snow for sure. Hopefully any power outages will be kept to a minimum but for our Southeast friends that looks inevitable. Whoever gets under that TROWAL feature/deform band probably will get some thundersnow. That happened last year and back in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MRX updated map, not sure if already posted, if so mods can delete: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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