Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jeff. Do you feel like the GFS is still trying to play catch-up. Seems like just looking at the current temps that the 18z was too warm...even now. But yes, we have all seen some epic busts due to temps and just storms jogging too far south and never materializing. The RGEM for two straight runs has gone nuts over E TN. Based on the radar right now does the GFS or Euro or NAM or RGEM appear correct. Who is the early front runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Would be interested in Stove's and Tnweathernut's take on the RAP and early radar returns... 23z RAP reflectivity looks dang good to me but, the surface looks warmish. I won't lie I'm concerned and Jeff's thoughts aren't helping me with that. I'm happy with the overall modeling consensus and especially thrilled to have MRX in our pocket. Hope we aren't disappointed with losing a lot of QPF to rain or mix. Guess we'll see soon! Edit: Also the SREF plume snow means are up considerably for east TN! That means we have RGEM, SREF, and RAP reflectivity all looking great which for the last storm here was the golden trio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 To me, if the southern valley is dealing with mixing...it would seem to me the precip field is going north of its predicted range. The moisture is going to follow that 0 C isotherm. Might be that the storm is strong than anticipated and has more of a push. What are our dewpoints at this time? HurricaneTracker, a met, having an interesting debate on whether the RGEM is actually possible in the SE banter thread. You know if it is correct, might see some mixing in. It was pretty powerful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Would be interested in Stove's and Tnweathernut's take on the RAP and early radar returns... I am generally encouraged by the amount of precip the RAP is showing, not worried about the surface, but admittedly I am not at Stove or Jeff's latitude. Looks like it would absolutely dump on parts of east TN. I am guessing amounts could go up on modeling overnight, hope the surface cooperates for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 23z RAP hour 18: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks for your comments Jeff. Some mets are being aggressive. Roberts latest tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks for your comments Jeff. Some mets are being aggressive. Roberts latest tweet.image.jpg They are -4 right now ,not sure about that Edit:-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't know a lot, but I would think with dew points in Knox in the single digits that it would be hard to have temp issues. moisture is currently raceing toward us very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Im confused by thst last post by robert. Warmer air should mean less snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I believe he is saying that the model is depicting temps that are too warm. Actual temps may he colder, thus more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Im confused by thst last post by robert. Warmer air should mean less snow, right? He means GFS was too warm compared to obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Im confused by thst last post by robert. Warmer air should mean less snow, right? I get the impression he means that the 850 temps on the GFS are being modeled too warm and there will actually be more snow in the areas he listed than what has been modeled by the GFS. At least that's my stab at it... edit: And dwagner88 wins by a nose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jeff. Do you feel like the GFS is still trying to play catch-up. Seems like just looking at the current temps that the 18z was too warm...even now. But yes, we have all seen some epic busts due to temps and just storms jogging too far south and never materializing. The RGEM for two straight runs has gone nuts over E TN. Based on the radar right now does the GFS or Euro or NAM or RGEM appear correct. Who is the early front runner? GFS just that one 18Z run so it may be a fluke. Too good to be true RGEM might pull in some >0 at 850. Overall I'm not too worried about either; just some thoughts down in Chatty. An 850 surge west of the surface and 850 low is odd, but I've seen stranger things. Regardless of the Chattanooga border war, you are golden up in the Tri Cities. Regarding dry air in East Tenn (bearman) Knoxville is almost certainly safe from this temperature issue. Chatty is in slight question, but I think still okay. Though it is dry the best surface high push/anchor will be over in NC. Tenn dews will rise more than half way to meet the temps; in contrast, NC will meet half way or lower. Wetbulbs will be a moving target. Here in Chatty we need to watch this, esp with our open Valley to the south. Maryville and Knoxville northeast are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS just that one 18Z run so it may be a fluke. Too good to be true RGEM might pull in some >0 at 850. Overall I'm not too worried about either; just some thoughts down in Chatty. An 850 surge west of the surface and 850 low is odd, but I've seen stranger things. Regardless of the Chattanooga border war, you are golden up in the Tri Cities. Regarding dry air in East Tenn (bearman) Knoxville is almost certainly safe from this temperature issue. Chatty is in slight question, but I think still okay. Though it is dry the best surface high push/anchor will be over in NC. Tenn dews will rise more than half way to meet the temps; in contrast, NC will meet half way or lower. Wetbulbs will be a moving target. Here in Chatty we need to watch this, esp with our open Valley to the south. Maryville and Knoxville northeast are good. Jeff, thanks for posting during this past week. Your expertise has been invaluable, as well as Mr. Bob's. Great analysis and good luck. Hope you all get a bunch. RAP looks a bit north with the low compared to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Being from this area my entire life, I've experienced that with rain to snow events, especially with a setup like what appears to be occurring, if it starts as snow, it has a hard time going to all rain. Snow to rain occurs much quicker. We are setup nicely IMO. I'm hoping we don't stay borderline with temps. That has been my concern for the last few days. I'm sill thinking with marginal temps and mixing a few slushy inches. If temps can keep it as all snow I'm thinking as much as 6" By the way BrianP, I think you might know who I am. Let's just say LEFTY!!! Hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 23z HRRR hour 15 snow totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 21z SREF at KTRI. Mean is >8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pushin 6 inches on the mean at TYS! Awesome to see this trend up and up. We have 6 big dog chances too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianP Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm hoping we don't stay borderline with temps. That has been my concern for the last few days. I'm sill thinking with marginal temps and mixing a few slushy inches. If temps can keep it as all snow I'm thinking as much as 6" By the way BrianP, I think you might know who I am. Let's just say LEFTY!!! Hahaha. I'd say you're right, we do know each other im sure...Temps will be marginal, but some of our biggest snows I can remember had temps at 32-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Stove, MRX posted a 9:00 AFD and is holding serve on their current forecast. Gotta be a good sign, right? Going to be a fun ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SLP looks a tad west on the 0z NAM. Well, the low is a bit elongated. The precip shield holds. Comma head is over E TN and looks underdone on precip. I will take this track 100% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm really getting concerned about surface temps. Rap and nam both getting highs in the low to mid 40s tomorrow, not dropping with precip overhead Could the down sloping be causing surface temps to skyrocket? Winds are coming due east off the mountains/plateau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm really getting concerned about surface temps. Rap and nam both getting highs in the low to mid 40s tomorrow, not dropping with precip overhead Could the down sloping be causing surface temps to skyrocket? Winds are coming due east off the mountains/plateau Many great storms have mixing and can even begin as rain...man, I hate downsloping with a passion. Amazing that we have gone from not enough precip to mixing issues. When does the RGEM come out, everyone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm really getting concerned about surface temps. Rap and nam both getting highs in the low to mid 40s tomorrow, not dropping with precip overhead Could the down sloping be causing surface temps to skyrocket? Winds are coming due east off the mountains/plateau Add the RUC to that list as well. If it isn't dry air concerns it is mixing concerns. Winter weather in Nashville, never easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 West of the Plateau there have been several runs of rain progs out of the models. The precip doesn't fall at a heavy enough rate to really dynamically cool that area. The 00z NAM has p-type issues there and briefly over the Chattanooga area. But all of East Tennessee from the Plateau East either starts as snow or switches within an hour of the precip starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My hope is that the hi res models are overdoing the effect of the downsloping winds, causing the crazy temps as well as the constant dry air issues. Downsloping causes both of those things, and the hi res models have a tendency to over amplify small scale details like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just read phil882(met who knows the mtns)....here is a quote from him on the SE board. Likes an inland track. Man. "Oh it definitely wasn't just the RGEM... the ECMWF has been showing this for now 48 hours. Of course since most people only focused on the GFS and NAM these concerns were ignored until all the guidance trended the ECMWF's way. When the ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles agree with little spread... its pretty much game over even if the rest of the guidance is out to lunch (as was the NAM and GFS yesterday)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Heard in the other forum that the 0z RGEM held serve (I am assuming in it's depiction of a western track similar to the Euro). I didn't know it was out by 10pm. Is there a source with it already out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z NAM (via meteogram, can't see amwx clown) is cranking out higher totals in east TN than 18z. Cobb not nearly as detrimental either which might mean less temp issues than previous progs. Looking for trends. TYS 5.7, Cobb 4.7 TRI 9.0, Cobb 11.0 CHA 3.4, Cobb 1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z NAM snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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