Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Now that's interesting... Eric Blake @EricBlake12 45m AF recon dropping sondes in the nrn GOM to help resolve the model differences: http://tinyurl.com/l9qsfsd Another mission tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z RGEM is still juiced up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM did indeed up QPF for everyone. Really did for SEKY. JKL has issued a Winter Storm Watch for their SE counites now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not that the NAM is that important at this point (to me, based on the inconsistency) but it is worth noting that it's temps do look better and the Cobb totals are higher for east TN. Just looking for trends on the American models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NWSHuntsville...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY... * TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET...WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. It's happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN330 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014 .DISCUSSION... AFTER AN ENTIRE DAY OF DELIBERATIONS AND POURING OVER MORE MODELDATA THAN I THINK WE THOUGHT WE HAD AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...WEHAVE COME TO A CONSENSUS OF STANDING PAT WITH WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVEFOR SNOW TOTALS AND ADVISORY LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY ANDWEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE TWO POINTS OF CONTENTION DEAL WITHHOW MUCH SNOW OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL ACTUALLY SEE...AND HOWFAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL REACH IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. I HAVE MORECONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER SNOWFALL IN OUR EAST...I CAN EASILY SEEGRUNDY...VAN BUREN AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES SEEING 4+ INCHES OFSNOW DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. I HAVE A TOUGHER TIME SEEINGSNOW FALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 1 INCH ALL THE WAY UP TO INTERSTATE40 IN THE WEST. BOTH OF THESE DEAL WITH ACTUAL PATH OF THE GULFLOW...AND HOW FAR NORTH THE MID-LEVEL /700MB/ TROUGH DECIDES TOTRAVERSE ACROSS THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY ENOUGH....IN GENERALTERMS...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN FAIRLY GOODAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE PATH OF BOTH OF THESE FEATURES. THEQUESTION IS WHETHER THEY ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID QPF.RIGHT NOW...I AM GOING TO GO WITH THE FACT THAT THEY ARE OVERDOINGIT. MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THAT WE HAVE ANALYZEDTODAY ARE SHOWING NOT NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF QPF THE GFS/EURO ARESHOWING. ON TOP OF THAT...THE 18Z NAM...WHILE SLIGHTLY FURTHERNORTH...IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER. ALL OF THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKEOUR SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WILL CATCH THE BRUNT OF THISSYSTEM AS IT MOVES NEWD. MANY SPOTS ALONG THE PLATEAU WILL LIKELYSEE 2-3 INCHES AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWOREPORTS OF 4 INCHES IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COUNTIES. IFSUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TONIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING CONTINUE TOSHOW THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS...AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNINGMAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THEM ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOONAND EARLY EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. WEDNESDAY`S WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF MIDDLE TENNESSEEPRIOR TO 15Z ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF ACONSIDERABLY MORE TRANQUIL PATTERN. WHILE WE WILL SEE ONE OR TWOSYSTEMS SWING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH...INCLUDING ONE ON FRIDAY ANDANOTHER SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT BOTH LOOK LIKE LIQUID PRECIP ATTM.TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE REBOUND INTO NEXT WEEKENDAHEAD OF A SYSTEM PROGGED TO BE INTO TN ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS STILL OUT TO LUNCH REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OFTHIS SYSTEM BUT IT TOO LOOKS LIKE LIQUID PRECIPITATION. I CAN`T STRESS THIS ENOUGH...PLEASE CHECK BACK WITH US LATERTONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING. A 50-75 MILE CHANGE IN THE PATH OFTHE 700MB LOW CAN BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NO SNOW AND 3 INCHES.WITH THE VARIABILITY OF OUR MODELS REGARDING WINTER WEATHER BEINGWHAT IT IS...THAT LITTLE OF A CHANGE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. UNGER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX has 5-7 here in the Warning. I agree with these totals. Seems pretty reasonable. Their wording has 2-4 tomorrow, and 3-5 tomorrow night for KTRI. Hedging I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z RGEM snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z RGEM snow! Looks like 18Z GFS is wetter too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Robert endearing himself forever to the weenie community: WXSOUTH @WxSouth 56s Thundersnow risk grows in western NC, SC n. GA, e TN, central west VA . The 5H digs and closes off briefly perfect prox. to mtn chain #snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Robert endearing himself forever to the weenie community: WXSOUTH @WxSouth 56s Thundersnow risk grows in western NC, SC n. GA, e TN, central west VA . The 5H digs and closes off briefly perfect prox. to mtn chain #snow Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z WPC probabilities: >2" >4" >8" >12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RPM doesn't like east TN at all. It changes everyone to rain from 11 am till midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Evaporative cooling will fix that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Evaporative cooling will fix thatHow much capacity will we have for evaporative cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm under clear skies right now, I wonder if that will effect whether we start as rain or not when the precipitation moves in If we can cool a decent bit quicker over night. I would guess not with the southern flow as the storm moves in. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Don't know if it matters but knoxvilles DP is currently 6 Oak ridge that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm under clear skies right now, I wonder if that will effect whether we start as rain or not when the precipitation moves in If we can cool a decent bit quicker over night. I would guess not with the southern flow as the storm moves in. Any thoughts?I've never found radiational cooling to help much. As soon as the temperature becomes dynamically driven by the impending weather system, it usually erases any advantage radiational cooling provides. Evaporative cooling is a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It is all in the track. If that low goes 996 over Hatteras, I would be shocked to see rain in mid-northern valley unless a piece of that low jogs west of the Apps. Basically, I am saying if this is a KU storm and we are in the northwest quadrant...would be tough to get rain. Mixing yes...rain...would be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It is all in the track. If that low goes 996 over Hatteras, I would be shocked to see rain in mid-northern valley unless a piece of that low jogs west of the Apps. Basically, I am saying if this is a KU storm and we are in the northwest quadrant...would be tough to get rain. Mixing yes...rain...would be shocked. I suppose if the 850 low went over us we could have precip issues, but I am not aware of any model that does this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are the chances of a huge bust here at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianP Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are the chances of a huge bust here at this time? That's not something that should be focused on at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianP Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RPM doesn't like east TN at all. It changes everyone to rain from 11 am till midnight. What other models are showing all rain?? There aren't any that I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What other models are showing all rain?? There aren't any that I've seen.At face value, the GFS has a lot of melting in the lower elevations. Not sure if it is actually depicting rain, or just snow that doesn't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At this point, the system appears to be phasing over east Texas. Does not appear convection will cut totals to the north. Looks like all systems go for a major winter storm that will impact the entire Eastern seaboard. Should shut down airports, interstates, and the AmWx forum at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianP Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At face value, the GFS has a lot of melting in the lower elevations. Not sure if it is actually depicting rain, or just snow that doesn't stick. Being from this area my entire life, I've experienced that with rain to snow events, especially with a setup like what appears to be occurring, if it starts as snow, it has a hard time going to all rain. Snow to rain occurs much quicker. We are setup nicely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is from Robert on his views as to what he meant by backflow in his comment on facebook - Sorry , sometimes I forget that some of my audience aren't weather nerds. A backing flow means winds aloft are coming off the Gulf. Now the core of the differences in the forecasts the last few days centers around the models not backing the flow as much, some over backed to the point of phasing, some were about right, and the models waffled a lot. We can now see the winds are going to back a lot, which means there will be more moisture than all the models maps you may be seeing. So that 20" of snow in part of VA for example is probably going to happen. I would think all of western NC down to north GA and eastern TN is going to be all snow and lots of it. Over a foot most likely in most of that area. Its a tight gradient on the western side of the storm, where eastern TN and northeast AL is...so close call between some areas having 12" some having a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Would be interested in Stove's and Tnweathernut's take on the RAP and early radar returns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hey guys. Thought you may like to read this: WXSOUTH @WxSouth 3m will be updating my snow map for northern third of Ala, MS most of southern and eastern TN, bigtime. #snow RAP coming in strong #alwx #tnwx This is from Robert on his views as to what he meant by backflow in his comment on facebook - Sorry , sometimes I forget that some of my audience aren't weather nerds. A backing flow means winds aloft are coming off the Gulf. Now the core of the differences in the forecasts the last few days centers around the models not backing the flow as much, some over backed to the point of phasing, some were about right, and the models waffled a lot. We can now see the winds are going to back a lot, which means there will be more moisture than all the models maps you may be seeing. So that 20" of snow in part of VA for example is probably going to happen. I would think all of western NC down to north GA and eastern TN is going to be all snow and lots of it. Over a foot most likely in most of that area. Its a tight gradient on the western side of the storm, where eastern TN and northeast AL is...so close call between some areas having 12" some having a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18Z GFS has a disturbing surge of >0C air into southeast Tennessee for several hours during the day. Frankly I don't believe a run all by itself, but this has always been a possibility. Did they release 18Z balloons over the Gulf for that run already? My point is that dwagner88 has valid concerns in every recent post. Who remembers 26 Feb 2004? Epic bust for East Tenn. NC set snow records but it was a cold rain in southeast Tenn. Pattern has similarities at 850 mb. On the other hand modeling is much better now than 10 years ago. I'm comfortable with mainly snow. Everything from 700 up is more like the great event 10 January 2011. I still like my previous forecast. Looking for a good snow event but lower totals than 10 January 2011. I'd shave 2 or 3 inches off what NWS offices are going after the latest upgrades. Exception is the measured Nashville WFO I believe is right on for their territory. Add back those 2-3 inches where the comma head/TROWAL passes, but it will be much more narrow than that wide track the GFS shows. Here are a few of my amounts, assuming no comma head at these locations. HSV, CHA, TYS 2-3 inches; BNA trace to 2 inches; Plateau 2 to 4 inches less melting; TRI 3-6 inches, yes I'm more optimistic north thanks to cold air and several hours overnight. Add back 2-3 inches where local banding or comma head/TROWAL pass. Elsewhere east KY 2-5 in; southwest VA 5-10 in; NC mountains and Smokies 12"+ hammer time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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