weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes that is liquid equivalent or QPF. Nice now if it will hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes that is liquid equivalent or QPF. Thanks 1234,that's what i thought,latest Ruc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I will say that in addition to the RAP and SREF doing well for that storm, the RGEM was a winner too. When I have some time today I'll go back and read that thread to see how far out they zeroed in on a solution. The HRRR did good as well didn't it? At this point I would toss the NAM and GFS and go with the Euro/RGEM/RAP/HRRR/RUC. I'm not tossing the NAM/GFS because they show less snow but because they have been inconsistent with features at the surface and upper levels. Short range models will have a much better clue as to what will happen with the higher resolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just checking in from yesterdays models - Is there really this big of a change back to the west with the snow? the RUC looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Confidence is building on the Wednesday outcome. North Alabama and North Georgia met or exceeded expectations today. How'd you like that appetizer? Cold air remains in place. Moisture feed remains strong. God Bless Texas already blossoming for our main course Wednesday. I'm an inch below MRX in along the I-75 corridor for the following reasons. Surface temperatures will get above freezing for several hours near Chattanooga. Valley is open to the south and that will get in here - as usual. Starting in Maryville and up to Knoxville I believe surface temps will stay below freezing, but moisture will take longer to arrive. Maryville is a touch higher in elevation than Chatty or even Knoxville, blocking the surface WAA. Also the Valley is oriented differently at Knoxville (almost west-east, vs open south). From about Morristown proper northeast I like MRX accumulations up through the Tri Cities. Northeast Tenn is deep in cold air and has a prolonged event overnight. Ditto for far east Kentucky and far southwest Virginia. The comma head has some TROWAL like features on both the NAM and GFS 12Z runs. Laymen terms, 850 warm air advection (going into precip) is associated with northeast 850 winds into a colder 850 patch to its southwest. The feature will only be about 30 miles wide, but it will enhance snowfall totals where it tracks. Keep in mind it will be narrower than progged. NAM has it tracking from North Alabama to Chatty on toward southwest NC. For me and the Chatty crew, wouldn't that be nice? GFS has it starting earlier out of northeast Mississippi, through North Alabama, into Tennessee across the Plateau and onto Knoxville. Such a track would get the Plateau nicely involved - maybe even BNA. MRX accumulations will be right where the feature tracks. Otherwise, I like an inch or maybe even 2 inches less. North Alabama and North Georgia snowfall totals may be too aggressive, depends on temps. North Alabama will spend some time above freezing, like Chatty, but they do enjoy higher qpf. Northwest Georgia may get above freezing for a few hours, but still good qpf. Perfect storm track, and those verify. Northeast Georgia looks good for a lot of snow and sleet, but damaging ice south of there. Kind of getting ouf of our zone into the Southeast, so I'll leave it there. Tennessee and this side of the Apps is looking good for snow and no ice biz. Have fun anticipating and tracking it. Watch the evolution of the precipitation shield out of Texas into Louisiana. One may be able to get at early track changes from there. Pick the better performing model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FYI, Cobb output from the 12z GFS has no snow accumulation in the lower elevations of east TN. I don't know what the clown map above is based on, but it doesn't agree with the Cobb output at all. I'm starting to worry that this may wind up being an event only for those over 1500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z Euro holds strong for the most part. Maybe a tick less on the amounts but not much. Amazing how consistent it has been. North Alabama looks better but that may be suspect that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If i'm not mistaken, MRX has posted their first pre-storm event youtube video... Don't think I've ever seen MRX do a pre-storm video, and rarely a video at all. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZfjVm4ylfo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FYI, Cobb output from the 12z GFS has no snow accumulation in the lower elevations of east TN. I don't know what the clown map above is based on, but it doesn't agree with the Cobb output at all. I'm starting to worry that this may wind up being an event only for those over 1500'. This has been the case for the past two days with the GFS and NAM, they are warm at the surface and Cobbing low for central/southern valley. The maps are 10:1 and just a relative guide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BNA disco mentioning they may pull the trigger on WSW for the plateau counties, in the afternoon package... I would expect WW Advisories would also likely be extended further west concurrently with WSW, if they pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BNA disco mentioning they may pull the trigger on WSW for the plateau counties, in the afternoon package... I would expect WW Advisories would also likely be extended further west concurrently with WSW, if they pull the trigger.I would. Think they would too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZHPE46 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WxSouth Twitter : "NAM too dry already. Strong backing flow now. NAM, GFS both too dry in all of Carolinas, TN,north GA. RAP will adjust soon. Epic storm looms". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Someone over in the SE thread posted a quote from the WPC. They are not buying into the further westward track of the Euro. They basically said that although it has been consistent they don't believe the phasing will happen as early as the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Some goodies from Robert on Facebook: Edit: ZHPE46 beat me to the punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Scott Blalock's blog on the storm http://scottblalockweather.com/?p=3661 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MEG just added southern tier of West Tennessee to WSW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just got a WS warning notification on my. Phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN331 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... .A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PULLING MOISTURE WESTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER MUCH OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TNZ014-036>040-067>071-073-120500- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0004.140212T1500Z-140213T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0005.140212T1500Z-140213T1200Z/ CLAIBORNE-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE- LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE... MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...KINGSTON... LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE 331 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING. * EVENT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...DRIVING AND WALKING WILL BE DANGEROUS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WWA for me. 18z NAM really boosted totals for East Tennessee. 4+ from the Plateau and points East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX discussion also ups snow totals... MODELS STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN SYSTEM WITH GFS...CANADIAN ANDECMWF SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH WEDNESDAY THROUGHTHURSDAY OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THENE GULF ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST COMPARED TO THENAM. THIS DEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE MORE LIFT OVER EAST TNAND ADJACENT NC MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAYNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED. INCREASED QPF AMOUNTSWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS SHOWING INCREASEDFORCING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. INCREASED TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACOUPLE INCHES EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST AND AROUND ONE INCHTENNESSEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLATEAU. So with that in mind, I guess now 4"-6" valley and 8"-12" mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX discussion also ups snow totals... So with that in mind, I guess now 4"-6" valley and 8"-12" mountains... still has me at 3-5 but point and shoot has 2-4 tomorrow, 1-3 tomorrow night, so 3-7 possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 still has me at 3-5 but point and shoot has 2-4 tomorrow, 1-3 tomorrow night, so 3-7 possible I don't think they have updated all their products yet. Think they fired the warning off, and discussion before updating all of their forecast products. So may be a bit before all the individual products and graphics are updated reflecting what they mention in their disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX discussion also ups snow totals... So with that in mind, I guess now 4"-6" valley and 8"-12" mountains... Winter Storm Warning for TRI and parts of SWVA has us at 5 to 7 inches. TNZ015>017-042-044-046-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-120500- /O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0004.140212T1800Z-140213T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0005.140212T1800Z-140213T1200Z/ HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN- NORTHWEST CARTER-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT... BRISTOL...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON... JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON 331 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING. * EVENT...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX has 5-7 here in the Warning. I agree with these totals. Seems pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z NAM, which bounced back well for East Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, yeah it does look the models are bouncing back our way. Anyone have any analysis on the forecast as it stands on the current radar and satellite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 After looking at the 12z RGEM, it's pretty well lined up with that NAM image, but even more qpf, further west. It had more qpf than the Ryan Maue tweet, shows 10mm-15mm over a good portion of Tennessee falling as snow, which is .4-.6, buries the NE area with double that basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow, yeah it does look the models are bouncing back our way. Anyone have any analysis on the forecast as it stands on the current radar and satellite? The NAM simulated radar had the precip contained to Texas and the very tip of Southeastern Louisiana right now. The radar has blossomed over a much larger area and it already streaking across Southern Oklahoma and Arkansas. The southern 1/3 of Louisiana is also covered already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM simulated radar had the precip contained to Texas and the very tip of Southeastern Louisiana right now. The radar has blossomed over a much larger area and it already streaking across Southern Oklahoma and Arkansas. The southern 1/3 of Louisiana is also covered already. I noticed that Little Rock NWS even put out a SPS this afternoon for their southern CWA for the chance of frozen precip. This was definitely not advertised. Just seems more moist than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Someone over in the SE thread posted a quote from the WPC. They are not buying into the further westward track of the Euro. They basically said that although it has been consistent they don't believe the phasing will happen as early as the Euro is showing. The were wrong, the WPC is using a blend of the 12z Euro/12z UkIe and the 12z GFSens. The 12z UKIE also shows a larger area of .4-.6 qpf over a bigger portion of Tennessee with .75+ for lots of East Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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