lugnuts Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 There's a good chance it hits East Tennessee and SE KY pretty well. It's a power house on the GGEM. 2MB stronger in North Florida than on the GFS or NAM and 7 mb stronger as it goes up the coast. It also takes a more favorable track along the Gulf Coast, where the GFS has it starting out around 150 miles off shore of the Florida panhandle. I can't see qpf yet though to see how the it responds. Man, on pin's and needle's here..Hoping this goes just a little more NW..Too close for comfort for my area..Probably have a nervous break down for the day's out..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZHPE46 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 First post here! MRX just posted their latest map via Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 First post here! MRX just posted their latest map via Facebook. If the heavy band over Asheville/Boone/Hickory is underdone then what's over Knoxville may be underdone as well. Something tells me they are still being conservative. Also, where's the 6" band? They went from 3-5 straight to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the heavy band over Asheville/Boone/Hickory is underdone then what's over Knoxville may be underdone as well. Something tells me they are still being conservative. Also, where's the 6" band? They went from 3-5 straight to 6". yeah I noticed that. As if there is no 6" band. I've always translated their 3-5 as 3-6 in general anyway. I agree however I still think they are being conservative as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ^^ Wow. That looks spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RAP and subsequently the RUC are much further northwest. We've seen them score a coup on phasing lows before. *850 low is in north Mississippi at that time frame and it looks like it would start to pivot as the surface low ejects from just south of mobile. That gives middle Tennessee some hope for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RAP and subsequently the RUC are much further northwest. We've seen them score a coup on phasing lows before. *850 low is in north Mississippi at that time frame and it looks like it would start to pivot as the surface low ejects from just south of mobile. That gives middle Tennessee some hope for sure. The RAP nailed the NW trend at the onset of the Jan 28 storm. Deja vu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z NAM shifted to the east by quite a bit compared to 6z. KTRI still gets about 4-6" but the rest of the valley doesn't look all that hot. The NAM has been the most inconsistent model easily. Normally we are entering its wheelhouse but it is still having problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, was just looking at that. Miracles do happen. LOL. 850mb low looks to be in north MS with the 700mb low not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RUC looks amazing! Besides the Jan 28th storm, how has it faired in the past? Also, 1234Snow, I don't know that the NAM shifted everything east. It just appears that way in East TN. When you look at the overall picture, I think you could make an argument that the NAM even shifted a little to the NW. The issue that I see with the NAM versus the other models is the tight gradient it is showing on the back edge of the precip shield. Every other model has the back edge towards Nashville or even a little further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seeing some good over running starting to develop over Texas,even better than what the Ruc shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Does anyone think thundersnow will be a possibility under the comma head of the deformation band, wherever/whenever it sets up? I think someone could get rocked esp. looking at the Ruc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS doesnt have the system right,compare the mesoscale map with h3 on the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM at hr 38. 81 corridor hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS always has issues with how it handles the S/jet stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Snow ends sooner on 12z RGEM than on 0z. 17 hrs vs 23 hrs for KTRI. EDIT: I stand corrected. At 45, it shows the backside, trailing shield breaking up sooner, but fills in again at 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RUC looks amazing! Besides the Jan 28th storm, how has it faired in the past? Also, 1234Snow, I don't know that the NAM shifted everything east. It just appears that way in East TN. When you look at the overall picture, I think you could make an argument that the NAM even shifted a little to the NW. The issue that I see with the NAM versus the other models is the tight gradient it is showing on the back edge of the precip shield. Every other model has the back edge towards Nashville or even a little further west. I feel like the RAP/RUC is very useful when we near the storm. The RAP (and SREF) were the only models to see the last event back in late January. As far as the NAM goes I just looked at the clown map and was lazy and didn't look at the surface and 500mb. The clown was slightly east but I'm not sure about the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ryan Maue(@RyanMaue) tweeted this snowfall map from the 12z RGEM. It crushes everyone. I cropped it to focus in closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I feel like the RAP/RUC is very useful when we near the storm. The RAP (and SREF) were the only models to see the last event back in late January. As far as the NAM goes I just looked at the clown map and was lazy and didn't look at the surface and 500mb. The clown was slightly east but I'm not sure about the track. I will say that in addition to the RAP and SREF doing well for that storm, the RGEM was a winner too. When I have some time today I'll go back and read that thread to see how far out they zeroed in on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hearing of some temp issues for valley locations (knox/chatt) per the 12z gfs. Please...NO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ryan Maue(@RyanMaue) tweeted this snowfall map from the 12z RGEM. It crushes everyone. I cropped it to focus in closer. image.jpg I assume this is qpfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z GFS snow: Is this the new shift starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I assume this is qpfs? Yes that is liquid equivalent or QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.