John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 With the evening runs, (and considering all are ignoring the Euro) I suspect MRX will hold with the WSW, possibly expanding it a few counties west in NE TN, and likely keep an sps/plan on a WWA for the rest of their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Carvers, I've been looking at maps for you. Superjames said the Euro has the low going from Waycross, GA, to Myrtle Beach, SC to Elizabeth City, NC. That's not way inland, but it's definitely west of where it started and inside Hatteras by a good bit. This storm is following your track so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just saw where DT is saying that our big snow the Euro is reading is bssed on sleet and freezing rain. Can someone comment on this? Airport code is KHSV by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just saw where DT is saying that our big snow the Euro is reading is bssed on sleet and freezing rain. Can someone comment on this? Airport code is KHSV by the way. I can't see it for the Euro but all the American model meteograms show you with a max of 5.5 inches of snow, .30 inches of sleet and .10 inches of freezing rain for HSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Finally got the clown for the Canadian: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The WPC is going with a blend of the 12z UKIE/12z Euro Ens, 00z Euro/00z GFS. They said the NAM missed the position of the BC wave that was moving on shore which caused it to be too fast and not amplified enough. They said the Canadian was too fast. They even said the 00z GFS was likely too weak and too far East. They finished off the discussion of our storm with this. THE POSITION OF THE BLENDED 00Z ECMWF/GFS APPEARSMOST USABLE...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z UKIE through 72. Still snowing in East TN at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z UKIE that the WPC is going with for part of it's blend is about the same as this QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The WPC is going with a blend of the 12z UKIE/12z Euro Ens, 00z Euro/00z GFS. They said the NAM missed the position of the BC wave that was moving on shore which caused it to be too fast and not amplified enough. They said the Canadian was too fast. They even said the 00z GFS was likely too weak and too far East. They finished off the discussion of our storm with this. wow john, great finds! thats pretty dang exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 New hatched plots, we were in the 10 percent area. Now from the Plateau/East 40% of 4 inches. 2 days out, this is pretty big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 With the evening runs, (and considering all are ignoring the Euro) I suspect MRX will hold with the WSW, possibly expanding it a few counties west in NE TN, and likely keep an sps/plan on a WWA for the rest of their CWA. My guess: Expand WSA to include NW Carter, Sullivan, Washington, and perhaps SW VA, while retaining SPS for the remainder of the Valley. O/U on counties without proper advisories in place at the beginning of the event: six. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX has majorly changed their tune for us down here over the next 12 hours...take a look at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My guess: Expand WSA to include NW Carter, Sullivan, Washington, and perhaps SW VA, while retaining SPS for the remainder of the Valley. O/U on counties without proper advisories in place at the beginning of the event: six. They may go with a WSW for the entire CWA now that WPC has it all basically in the 4 inch category and the fact that they are now going with the Euro as their main model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX has majorly changed their tune for us down here over the next 12 hours...take a look at that! The returns upstream look pretty impressive from just west of you all the way back to Memphis. Once the snow starts, and it should soon, I could see you guys picking up 1-2 inches of this first wave. Especially Southern Hamilton Co around the Nooga area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The returns upstream look pretty impressive from just west of you all the way back to Memphis. Once the snow starts, and it should soon, I could see you guys picking up 1-2 inches of this first wave. Especially Southern Hamilton Co around the Nooga area. That's exactly what I was thinking and hoping for. Personally, I think this thing is going too bomb out in the next 24 hours. I think we will get dumped on here. Very dynamic system which I think will be a little stronger and little more west than the forecasted path right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 John, speaking of WPC maps, I sampled the updated (correct) maps and deleted my erroneous post from earlier in the thread. How long has it been since the 18" contour has crept our way? Have a look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can't sleep so I'll stay up for the AFD's and maybe 6z NAM. I think this really puts into perspective of how big this storm will be and all of these watches/warnings will expand tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion regarding the enhanced precip tonight: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/md0080.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This NAM run is definitely NW so far through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This 1st wave really is looking more impressive for Chattanooga. Take a look at this radar: Makes you really wonder how the models may miss the simulated radar for the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 DT's call map. Sorry for west and sw, he does the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 John, speaking of WPC maps, I sampled the updated (correct) maps and deleted my erroneous post from earlier in the thread. How long has it been since the 18" contour has crept our way? Have a look... Probably around the Smokies in Jan 2010. If then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM will be a HUGE monster hit me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nothing falling as of yet. We are waiting to saturate here...you can feel it in the air right now. Wind has picked up also. Just "Ping'd" also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably around the Smokies in Jan 2010. If then. What I was thinking. Just an incredible setup. At this point, I'll just stay up for the morning AFD. Hopefully it's out before 5:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We have snow on top of our vehicles here now. And whoever posted that sleet map, you can keep that nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 21z SREF plumes, just over 2 inch ens average out of the 21 members for TYS. Large number of members 4+ with 2 around 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What I was thinking. Just an incredible setup. At this point, I'll just stay up for the morning AFD. Hopefully it's out before 5:00 Sounds good! We can all stay up late with John! He never goes to sleep! NAM is out to 30 and the precip shield is about to enter into TN. Doesn't look bad so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Stronger and further west with heavier precip on the 06 vs the 00 NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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