1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 By looking at clown maps from WeatherBell, Knoxville and Chattanooga gets around 2-3". KTRI is pushing 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Precip shield expands to the west by 150 miles. Looked like a later phase but the sucker tries to go neg tilt and drops the comma head on us. Overall, game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Precip shield expands to the west by 150 miles. Looked like a later phase but the sucker tries to go neg tilt and drops the comma head on us. Overall, game on! I agree Carvers, quite an overall change from 18z. I think the NWS will have an interesting discussion around 10-11 tonight with their evening AFD. I would not be surprised to see WSWatches out by morning, especially if the Euro and Canadian hold their ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I agree Carvers, quite an overall change from 18z. I think the NWS will have an interesting discussion around 10-11 tonight with their evening AFD. I would not be surprised to see WSWatches out by morning, especially if the Euro and Canadian hold their ground. Low might be a tick west, but not by much. Really it is the precip shield that expands west. Storm just goes bonkers up the coast. 1-0 for the home team on 0z. Four to go. Euro, UKMET, GFS, and Canadian to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here is Andy Wood's map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here is Andy Wood's map: Strong, great to see you over here. Post any time. I like that map. Looks like the right call. I could still see this going bigger here, but will wait for Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z NAM was very encouraging, but I just can't see the 0z euro holding with such a robust solution. It was such an extreme solution with an almost perfect phase at 12z. One can hope though. If we get 5-6 inches in NE TN, I think that will be enough to cause some power outages around the area. It will be like cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My call map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM moved northwest. I am actually more concerned the Euro will be too warm, too west. Anything nut leading you to believe it tones it down other than the fact extreme solutions rarely verify? Looks like tonight's runs are moving towards it. It has been rock solid. Person in the SE thread posted its verification is out the roof right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just can't see the 0z euro holding. It was such an extreme solution with an almost perfect phase. One can hope though. If we get 5-6 inches in NE TN, I think that will be enough to cause some power outages around the area. It will be like cement. My gut feeling is this is a 4-8" cement dumping for the Tri-Cities. I recall that Dec. 2009 was cement and featured relatively widespread power outages. Dave Dierks is forecasting 2-6" in the Tri-Cities and more in mountain counties. I'll be interested to see what Mark Reynolds has to say at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM moved northwest. I am actually more concerned the Euro will be too warm, too west. Anything nut leading you to believe it tones it down other than the fact extreme solution rarely verify? Looks like tonight's runs are moving towards it. It has been rock solid. Person in the SE thread posted its verification is out the roof right now. Really just my experience following storms. I have seen a ton of extreme solutions modeled, but very few verify as strong as modeled. The big difference with this though is we are so close to verification time. It will make for an interesting case study looking back on it years from now. Another VERY odd thing is something like this happening (or having the opportunity to happen) with a positive NAO and a neutral PNA. Just not something you see very often! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Chalk up another model that trended better for east TN. 0z GFS juicer! Impressive shift west with the precip shields tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Really just my experience following storms. I have seen a ton of extreme solutions modeled, but very few verify as strong as modeled. The big difference with this though is we are so close to verification time. It will make for an interesting case study looking back on it years from now. Another VERY odd thing is something like this happening (or having the opportunity to happen) with a positive NAO and a neutral PNA. Just not something you see very often! But there is a block over Baffin Island...maybe not a block but Robert mentions this as his signal. Could be a HP...but says as soon as he saw it knew that it would produce a storm. I think this a classic winter storm prior to a major pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS has a widespread 2-4 all the way up to John's house. There is a snowhole near KTRI around Bristol. I would try to post the map but I don't think the forum can handle it and I can't post anything from Tapatalk. That's 2 down 2 to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Carvers, I think you're right. After this one I think the heat is on. Honestly, I'm ready for it. Lets get a good snow and then lets usher in Spring. I'm ready to knock the dust off of the Harley & go for a long ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM moved northwest. I am actually more concerned the Euro will be too warm, too west. Anything nut leading you to believe it tones it down other than the fact extreme solutions rarely verify? Looks like tonight's runs are moving towards it. It has been rock solid. Person in the SE thread posted its verification is out the roof right now. RE: Verification, Ryan Maue tweeted this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z RGEM snow at hour 48 (it's still snowing in east TN at this point) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The return of the NW trend on the qpf shield is encouraging to me, it started at 18z. I'd love to get 4 inches out of a single storm this season. To me, that's a moderate accumulation. So far I've only had light events. I'd obviously love to see the Euro verify and get a significant accumulation, which I consider 6+ significant for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I will also say this, gulf lows seem to always have bigger precip fields than modeled. I've saw many over the years look similar to this one only to see a good portion of Kentucky overspread by precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I will also say this, gulf lows seem to always have bigger precip fields than modeled. I've saw many over the years look similar to this one only to see a good portion of Kentucky overspread by precip. I agree, and not only that, but phased systems are often north and/or west with the track, even INSIDE of the last 24 hours. I have seen this time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 On the positive side for me, the rest of the Plateau/NE Tn/SWVA and Southern Kentucky, we shouldn't have temp issues. Also, the ground is still very cold here. The snow a couple of nights ago all stuck easily, it was only 32 today and I'm already down to 22 degrees, probably heading to around 10-15 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX updated the winter storm watch for mountain counties and didn't change a thing. Forecast holds at 4-8"...for now. We'll have to wait for the overnight update to get a feel for where they're really leaning. Edit: Mark Reynolds's (WJHL) map literally mirrors MRX's map. 1-4" Northeastern valley, 4-8" mountain counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0z GFS snow, the cobb hit would be rough most likely for central valley but still nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Aldrich says 5-7" as worst case scenario for ETN Howell sticking with 1-3" for now Hinkin hinting at it missing us altogether MRX overnight update should be interesting. I expect watches by tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX updated the winter storm watch for mountain counties and didn't change a thing. Forecast holds at 4-8"...for now. We'll have to wait for the overnight update to get a feel for where they're really leaning. Edit: Mark Reynolds's (WJHL) map literally mirrors MRX's map. 1-4" Northeastern valley, 4-8" mountain counties. Since around 2004 MRX has been very reluctant to issue Winter Storm products outside the mountains. They usually wait until the weather is falling before upgrading. I had 47 inches of snow in 2009-2010 and only 1 winter storm warning that winter with 4 events greater than 5 inches, 3 of which were greater than 8 inches. I got 8 in December 2009 without even getting a WWA until 5 inches were on the ground. Then my power went off for the next 3 days. So I wouldn't base not being under a Watch/Warning as a significant development. We're about 12 hours away from pretty much observational forecasting anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I agree, and not only that, but phased systems are often north and/or west with the track, even INSIDE of the last 24 hours. I have seen this time and time again. Yup, my experience too. Of course, all of my experience with winter storms comes from those out in the Midwest, which is where I'm from. I couldn't imagine it being any different down here though. Strong phases seem to pull storms north quicker than models depict. Of course, a late phase is worrisome though. I've lived here for 3 years & I'm itching for a good storm. I live about 25 miles northeast of The Dragon near the NC border. We got 3.5 inches here a couple weeks ago, which isn't much to me. That is the most I have experienced here. I got lucky during the Christmas of 2012. Went home to see the family in Missouri & got smashed by a 15" blizzard. It was fun. There were 4ft to 5ft snow drifts. I'm supposed to be moving to the St. Louis area in May, so next Winter I should be good to go, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 11:19 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014 SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE- WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT- RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- ...SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN...BUT QUICKLY CHANGE OVER THE SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADWAYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE COUNTIES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS...FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Whoah, hi-res NAM coming in better than regular NAM on meteogram. TYS 3.5 / 2.5 cobb TRI 4.0 / 4.5 cobb CHA 5.5 / 5.0 cobb This tells me that perhaps the higher resolution models (like the Euro) are seeing cooler temps. Here's the 0z NAM Hi-Res clown at hour 60 (still patches of light snow in east TN at that point) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Aldrich getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.