tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Seems to vanish at hour 120, not a bad looking setup, though marginal at 850. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Robert's latest: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Robert's latest: I know it's early and a moot point, but could someone clarify for me the blue dotted line. Does that mean everything south of that line is expected to turn to sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I know it's early and a moot point, but could someone clarify for me the blue dotted line. Does that mean everything south of that line is expected to turn to sleet? I think he means that is roughly the line where snow would become sleet. Much south of that zone and it's all rain, if there is any precip left at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Anybody have Euro ensemble data yet? Mine is slow as molasses. Edit: The 850 temps look surprisingly good for most of the state for the first event on the mean. They are below zero until the hour 120 frame (12z Wed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS might be falling in with the Euro,much different look at the H5 AT H36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, the first event was a miss lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just don't feel the GFS has this handled correctly. Seems off...bout the best I can explain it. And that isn't just because it is not a great run. It has very little support from other models. Either it is scoring a coup or is just out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just don't feel the GFS has this handled correctly. Seems off...bout the best I can explain it. And that isn't just because it is not a great run. It has very little support from other models. Either it is scoring a coup or is just out to lunch. It's a comically different solution haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks somewhat similar to it's 12z run. Using the same data, so not a big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's a comically different solution haha. I try not to criticize it too much. There are probably people on this site who helped develop it. But man, that is not a run that seems to have support from any other model. John, I though sometimes the 18z did get new model data ingested? Might need to leave the 18z in the barn from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just don't feel the GFS has this handled correctly. Seems off...bout the best I can explain it. And that isn't just because it is not a great run. It has very little support from other models. Either it is scoring a coup or is just out to lunch. GFS is hanging the system back up in the SW for over a day,not sure why it's doing it but i find it hard to believe that will happen and even if it does it should be a over running event tapping into the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I thought, as a rule, balloons only went up every 12 hours unless there was an impending threat that caused more balloon launches to be required. The models are consistently inconsistent this year. Especially beyond 36 hours. Even then, they are spotty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 18z GFS says to the entire SE, "What storm?" Might be right. Might not. But amazing to see such model variability this winter. No surprise it is suffering the same fate of all other models. That stale, arctic air is suppressing the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I thought, as a rule, balloons only went up every 12 hours unless there was an impending threat that caused more balloon launches to be required. The models are consistently inconsistent this year. Especially beyond 36 hours. Even then, they are spotty. Ok, that makes sense. Interesting that the NAM changed though. On the other hand, if a northwest trend is to occur, we have that storm exactly where we want it. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ok, that makes sense. Interesting that the NAM changed though. On the other hand, if a northwest trend is to occur, we have that storm exactly where we want it. LOL. The NAM was very similar to the DGEX from 12 hours ago, which was just out of the NAM's window. Since the DGEX is the lower resolution NAM, it picked up the threat beyond 84. If you look at the 12z NAM at 84 and the 18z NAM at 78, they aren't that far off at all. The 18z is just slightly faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTHE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYTONIGHT. THIS HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE LOWERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS EVIDENT IN THE LATESTREGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS. 290-295K SURFACES SHOW INCREASINGISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORTTERM TRENDS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BITFURTHER SOUTHWEST AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA MAY MOVEACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...FEEL THE BESTPOTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING ONE INCH WILL BE ACROSS AREAS MAINLYALONG AND NORTH OF I-40...EAST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF I-40...PORTIONSOF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ONE INCH TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 2 INCHES ISPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS EASTARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TOSHORT MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST HEADLINES IF NECESSARY. Like i said earlier,this is over performing and even the short range models are missing this. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MEG&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I see BNA has bumped us up 2 a inch tonight-tom,might be the biggest snow we've seen in 3 years..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lzk&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Me like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lzk&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Me like this Did the RAP show 25-30 dbz returns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Did the RAP show 25-30 dbz returns? No way the RAP is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ohx/graphicast/image1.gif Lookin good! How bout we keep these posts in the obs thread, for documentation purposes if nothing else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 00z NAM shifted the heavy snow area north to mainly Kentucky through 84 hours. Though 2-4 looks possible along the border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS still says 'NO SOUP FOR YOU!" outside of Arkansas/SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If someone has detailed access to the 0z Euro...please share. At first glance hr 96 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Going off the wunderground maps it's tough, precip appears to come in a couple of waves. I'd guess around .25-.5 total for both going by them, Much heavier precip south and east. Surface sub 32 line wavers around just south of 40 and generally the 850s do too. The 540 gets up to around 40. Hour 108 appears to have the most accumulated precip in any 3 hour frame with a .1-.175. Probably be snow north of 40, mix to rain south of 40. Pretty sharp cut-off line for most of the precip around the Plateau though lighter amounts appear to fall towards Nashville, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 6z NAM is giving me chills. WOW. 2-7" statewide, more the further east you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 And it's still going at 84 when the map runs out. HPC said they are going down the middle of the NAM and GFS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 06z NAM 24hr snowfall. Keep in mind the EURO is developing additional precip 18-24 hours after this, As hpc noted, this is the most amplified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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