Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think they are being more cautionary than anything. This thing will not hit until Wednesday evening, so there is plenty of time for adjustments. To get caught up in the west/east shifting would be silly at this point. The areas in the bullseye & and west of the bullseye over in NC are pretty well locked in. I think MWX is doing the right thing with staying conservative for now. They are putting word out that snow is coming without putting people into a panic just yet. 1-4 inches of predicted snowfall is good enough to get people into preparation mode. If the later models support the western shift of the precip they will pull the trigger on a WSW. Like I said, we still got lots of time to see how this will set up. Some of these are private conversations...not on the board. MRX is right in being conservative. Mr. Bob and Jeff, earlier in this thread, have both gone on the low side because they have seen these systems underperform numerous times. There is wisdom in listening to folks who are experienced. Plus they collaborate w/ people who do this for a living. We are hobbyists collaborating. Again, if I was MRX I would wait until 0z. Just saying the Euro numbers in E TN are outliers. Just statistical truth. But I have said for about two weeks I felt this window was going to produce a storm. Nobody more than me would like to see that verify. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Best to play the flip side of the epic 12z Euro run. The NAM is basically zip. The NAM has been excellent inside of 48 hrs this winter. We need it to go big at 0z or I think it is time to strongly consider that the Euro/Canadian/UKMET are wrong. I like the trends of the 18z GFS...but it is the 18z GFS. It has been wrong more times than I can count. So, we are down to this....the 0z runs are the bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, full count, two people out, down by one. One swing and it's ball game. My guess...we score, but it is just a guess. I agree, however it could still shift more on the runs tomorrow too. When I lived out in Missouri I can't count how many times things changed in the 48 hours before a large storm. These things can drive the models batty. But yeah, if I'm not mistaken the storm will get sampled for tonight's runs. If they keep us dry I will be fairly ready to throw in the towel with a last ditch hope of seeing something from tomorrow's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I agree, however it could still shift more on the runs tomorrow too. When I lived out in Missouri I can't count how many times things changed in the 48 hours before a large storm. These things can drive the models batty. But yeah, if I'm not mistaken the storm will get sampled for tonight's runs. If they keep us dry I will be fairly ready to throw in the towel with a last ditch hope of seeing something from tomorrow's runs. I am just trying to keep it level. I get excited w/ those big runs as well. The 0z NAM trend is what I will watch. If it comes West even a bit, I think it is trying to catch-up. It holds its ground, have to think inside 48 it is a formidable solution. Hey, are you a Seabee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am just trying to keep it level. I get excited w/ those big runs as well. The 0z NAM trend is what I will watch. If it comes West even a bit, I think it is trying to catch-up. It holds its ground, have to think inside 48 it is a formidable solution. Hey, are you a Seabee? Former Seabee. I served from 2002 to 2006 in NMCB 133 out of Gulfport & NMCB 15. I was a Heavy Equipment Operator (EO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Some of these are private conversations...not on the board. MRX is right in being conservative. Mr. Bob and Jeff, earlier in this thread, have both gone on the low side because they have seen these systems underperform numerous times. There is wisdom in listening to folks who are experienced. Plus they collaborate w/ people who do this for a living. We are hobbyists collaborating. Again, if I was MRX I would wait until 0z. Just saying the Euro numbers in E TN are outliers. Just statistical truth. But I have said for about two weeks I felt this window was going to produce a storm. Nobody more than me would like to see that verify. LOL. Carvers, thank you for the general warning not to get false hopes up. I listen to what you guys say & if a model says I'm getting a big snow and people who know think not, I need a warning. It would be helpful to know why, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm still optimistic about this storm. Carvers you are right we are at the two minute warning in model land and tonight's runs will be the most important of the season. There is still time for this to trend our way. I think this will be one of those storms where we will be looking at the RAP and HRRR down to the last minute. If this phases any earlier then we are in the game as far as precip goes. Of course a factor in this is the temps and we all know (Mr Bob, Jeff, MRX included) that we have been robbed before with temp issues when everything looked great. That being said I'll take my chances with a larger precip shield. It can't snow if the QPF isn't there, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Former Seabee. I served from 2002 to 2006 in NMCB 133 out of Gulfport & NMCB 15. I was a Heavy Equipment Operator (EO). Great to hear. I have a tremendous amount of respect for you folks who have served our country. Have several friends who have served in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other places around the globe. Have always thought Seabees are incredible at what they do. Used to read these incredible stories as a kid about Seabees building runways in the Pacific out of jungle in a day or two. Anyway, to keep this from being banter....Hope you all can score a big snow in Knoxville Maryville. I would think the closer to the Apps you are... the bigger the totals. Let's hope downsloping doesn't cut our totals. Really need and early phase like over east Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At 6:00, Todd Howell's predicted accumulations had KTRI with 6+...he is generally pretty middle of the road from what our Knox area folks say. Channel 10 is the only Knox station we have on our cable in Kingsport. Like everyone else, anxiously awaiting the 0Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm still optimistic about this storm. Carvers you are right we are at the two minute warning in model land and tonight's runs will be the most important of the season. There is still time for this to trend our way. I think this will be one of those storms where we will be looking at the RAP and HRRR down to the last minute. If this phases any earlier then we are in the game as far as precip goes. Of course a factor in this is the temps and we all know (Mr Bob, Jeff, MRX included) that we have been robbed before with temp issues when everything looked great. That being said I'll take my chances with a larger precip shield. It can't snow if the QPF isn't there, right? I am still optimist, but we all need to analyze these model runs for tendencies to over- or underestimate totals. Looks like a wet snow, so 8:1 is my guess and I read that somewhere. But I have always said...I'll take this track 100% of the time. My opinion has not changed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At 6:00, Todd Howell's predicted accumulations had KTRI with 6+...he is generally pretty middle of the road from what our Knox area folks say. Channel 10 is the only Knox station we have on our cable in Kingsport. Like everyone else, anxiously awaiting the 0Z runs. Unless this trends the other way, at this time looks like a good call to me. The NAM gives me pause. I will be paying particular attention to it this evening. Hey, let's get some radio show callers tonight and rep the new forum. edit: Looks like Howell is riding the Euro. Probably smart on his part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep, Carver...looks that way. I just read Robert's update on FB, and he is also thinking the Euro has the lead right now...mentions East TN as being in the the favored areas. (Is it OK to repost from FB on here?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep, Carver...looks that way. I just read Robert's update on FB, and he is also thinking the Euro has the lead right now...mentions East TN as being in the the favored areas. (Is it OK to repost from FB on here?)Yes, information made public (such as through social media) is allowable. Information posted on his subscription website, however, is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That looks like some good news for us snow lovers from Todd Howell. Regardless, I think we may be in a good spot in the Tri Cities. Even some of the models that looked to shift east had us "in the game" somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So if the Euro ensembles and CMC are to be trusted, the phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet occurs much earlier. Is this leading to the interior low intensfying more rapidly versus the formation of a secondary coastal low? Or is it simply that the secondary low forms much sooner over GA/SC and bombs away much further inland into the NC interior versus formation off the coast of VA/Maryland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So here is the deal... 1. Listen to the radio show at 9:00. Should be some great information. 2. Watch the NAM roll out at 0z. Watch for an early phase over east Texas. Should be rolling soon. 3. Either way, the Euro and Canadian hold serve at 0z...going to be a big storm here. I am riding the Euro if it holds. 4. If you pay for the info, I feel you can paraphrase info. You paid for it. I don't post maps from pay sites. I also don't give all of their ideas out either. Most news agencies probably like the publicity anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So if the Euro ensembles and CMC are to be trusted, the phasing of the northern and southern branch of the jet occurs much earlier. Is this leading to the interior low intensfying more rapidly versus the formation of a secondary coastal low? Or is it simply that the secondary low forms much sooner over GA/SC and bombs away much further inland into the NC interior versus formation off the coast of VA/Maryland? Basically, an earlier phase will cut inland...inside Hatteras(overused term on my part). For E TN, we want it to go through the Piedmont. Basically, the earlier that system explodes...the better our chances. It phases late, just a cold windy day for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Basically, an earlier phase will cut inland...inside Hatteras(overused term on my part). For E TN, we want it to go through the Piedmont. Basically, the earlier that system explodes...the better our chances. It phases late, just a cold windy day for most. Thanks. By the way, I love Roan Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From FB: WxSouth I have a full update with my custom maps and some model comparisons and a breakdown of how it all should (or could ) shakeout. (www.wxsouth.com). For FB side, I do like the looks of the ECMWF model map and it has held steady. I adjusted the map to where I think it should go. Lots of things are lining up to make this a perfect storm scenario in northern Ga, northeast AL, eastern TN, and much of the Carolinas and most of VA....way too long to mention here.As it closes off Wednesday night, thundersnow could occur in Shenandoah region down to central or western piedmont NC or even northern VA, depending on exact cutoff location. Sleet piles up just south and east of Atlanta to Columbia, but near there is the narrow freezing rain zone. Same for eastern Piedmont NC and Sandhills. RDU to RIC will warm enough aloft to go from snow, to some kind of ice (sleet) then back to snow when it moves a little more east Thursday morning. So in essence the storm swipes across Millions of people.What makes this storm a once in a 25 year event or so, is the fact that this whole setup normally occurs about 300 to 500 miles further north. This is forecast on all models to occur unusually far south. Be prepared for a lot of different types of weather, depending on your location. And in the all snow areas like northwest South Carolina, western NC, northern Georgia, Eastern TN, interior and western to northern Virginia....the snow will fall so hard and fast at times that it could bring down power lines or trees on top of the powerlines. The winds will increase once the Va coastal is cranking, which may make things worse in northern NC and into VA especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's interesting with Robert, b/c his wording is very strong and centered on the Euro, but his snow map hedges toward the NAM/GFS (for east TN at least). Time will tell, but the 0z NAM is rolling so we should be able to place another piece in the puzzle shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From FB: WxSouth I have a full update with my custom maps and some model comparisons and a breakdown of how it all should (or could ) shakeout. (www.wxsouth.com). For FB side, I do like the looks of the ECMWF model map and it has held steady. I adjusted the map to where I think it should go. Lots of things are lining up to make this a perfect storm scenario in northern Ga, northeast AL, eastern TN, and much of the Carolinas and most of VA....way too long to mention here. He seems to be getting flack from all the people in NC that are hugging the other models and tossing out the Euro. I wish we could just fast forward to tonights GFS, Euro, etc. I'm not watching the NAM very much yet. Not until at least late tomorrow. Edit: Scratch that. For some reason I was thinking we were 72 hours out instead of 48 hours. Had a brain fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 He seems to be getting flack from all the people in NC that are hugging the other models and tossing out the Euro. I wish we could just fast forward to tonights GFS, Euro, etc. I'm not watching the NAM very much yet. Not until at least late tomorrow. Edit: Scratch that. For some reason I was thinking we were 72 hours out instead of 48 hours. Had a brain fart. Every year we battle for the snow between Eastern NC and Eastern TN... Its been many years though since we've won in East Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 StormTracker, met from Asheville....SE forum. I actually disagree with this. (Eastward jog)The Euro ensemble means had SLP near that of the control and op runs. All inland slightly from the coast. Secondly, it's not an outlier. The CMC has a very similar track and climatology favors the Euro track more than the eastward runs of the NAM and GFS. Thirdly, the NAM is darn near useless beyond 24 hours, so it doesn't pay to even look at it for this Wed/Thurs. Fourth, the Euro and 90% of it's ensemble members align with the op run. Consistency! Hard to bet against that. With tonight's runs, I would like to see two things: 1. NAM trends slightly more west, not much, but enough, to begin it's alignment with the CMC and Euro. 2. The GFS should start picking up on the QPF since the jet dynamics are there along with excellent DPVA and frontogenetical forcing. A lot of dynamics. Moisture will find a way. Just some thoughts before the models come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Out to 33 on the NAM...looks like an even later phase. Not a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That's what I heard. Not a good sign. Lets hope the Euro and friends keep it west. There is still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like it may be a little stronger coming out of texas..Hope so anyways..lol.. Nevermind..Show's what i know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If it's stronger and goes negative quick enough it will pull north sooner. Late phase won't matter as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is out to hour 45 and precip is pivoting back into Tennessee. Let's see how much this develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 @48 it's west. Good trend. Phase was funky. But E TN is under the comma head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 At hour 48 the back end has developed and .1 to .2 of QPF has overspread much of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 51 the comma head has filled in even more but is pulling away quick. Looks like the southern valley does have some mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.