John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's gonna give 40 south/81 east something. Not sure how much yet. Precip shield is probably 50-75 miles further north than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, the models have been wacky lately. Heck, even when they are being dependable they tend to wiggle back & forth a bit. I'm not getting excited yet. I'll save that for tonight if the models still give us lots of snow. I'd still say East TN is looking decent. Of course, if the late phase happens we will be stuck staring at dead grass. We need an earlier phase. If we get that it's game on. That sucker will pull north quicker & hammer East TN. I just hope the temps stay down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yep, missed again mostly outside the far Eastern Mountains, far eastern Valley and back towards extreme NE Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 John, I'm surprised that the quicker phase on that Nam run didn't produce better results for East TN. I am beginning to wonder if the western precip shield is being underdone on the Nam compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Made the WPC greather than 10% chance of 4" in the northeastern part of TN on Day 3.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 John, I'm surprised that the quicker phase on that Nam run didn't produce better results for East TN. I am beginning to wonder if the western precip shield is being underdone on the Nam compared to the other models. I can't explain it, it came back north some but the heavy QPF doesn't translate north nearly as well as earlier runs. The 00z data should finally have the sampled BC wave. WPC said look for more possible large shifts in modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I've been at college all day and still am so I haven't been able to post much. The NAM missed us again but it is close to being like the other models. Here's the clown map: To me the NAM has been all over the place compared to other models. I would take a blend of the CMC/Euro/GFS for right now. I still think 2-4 is easily doable for all of East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MRX issued a SPS for non mountain locations. Wide 1-4 inch range. I think the NAM spooked them with it's sudden abandonment right as most other models came on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS wouldn't have been a bad run for east TN if the temps had been better. The meteogram for TYS shows 3.5 inches, but with Cobb? A trace of snow. With the sampled data tonight things are liable to waffle better or worse but hopefully more consistency between the American and foreign models takes shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is really boiling down to a battle of the models and will make for a fascinating case study to look back on. EURO/GGEM vs. GFS/NAM. The Euro and Canadian have been remarkably steady, the GFS and NAM have sort of been all over the place in the last 3 to 4 days. This will have huge consequences on the sensible weather for much of east (and even parts of central) TN. For our friends in a chunk of the Carolinas and northeast Georgia, they better be buckling their seatbelts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Regarding Wednesday, I'd been having temperature concerns for southeast Tenn. Looks like the 850 issue is somewhat resolved on latest 12Z and 18Z NAMs. Euro still brings 850 line up to Tenn border; a believable Chatty problem. GFS brings 850 line north of CHA but drops back when precip begins in earnest. Wednesday surface still shows several hours above freezing along the I-75 corridor up to Knox. Spells wet snow. Some will melt so I'm cautious on accumulations. Tri Cities might be able to trust snow accumulations more, but at a low ratio. Like 1 to 3 inches from Chatty to Knox. I could see Tri Cities picking up 4-5 with the right storm track. TRI is conditional on storm track more than temp issues. Nashville and the Plateau need more track shift. Only a dynamic comma head would push Chatty to Knox totals higher. Those are about 30 miles wide so I'm not holding my breath. However it will be fun to forecast and track a comma head. Still have the appetizer tonight. It has been kind of in the shadow of Wednesday. North Alabama and North Georgia should get light snow esp far north, with a little ice south side of that. Parts of Mississippi are in the same set-up tonight. Less than an inch of snow is still cool in the Deep South. Elevations above 1,000 FT could get a little more than an inch in far north Alabama and northern Georgia tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The latest SREF mean is running about 2.5 inches for TYS, 5.0 for TRI, and 3.0 for CHA. That's not too bad. There are some 6, 7, and 8 inchers in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So Jeff, I take it that you aren't buying the Euro solution, correct? I know that it is likely too amped, but what do you make on the inland surface low track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here's the RGEM at hour 54 (18z only goes to hour 54): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z GFS snow, I believe this is the 3rd run in a row that has gotten better for east TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I find it interesting that MRX has two models that have been really rock steady in the EURO and GGEM over the past two days, combined with a GFS that has been slowly upping the snowfall amounts the last three runs and they are staying VERY conservative in their wording. It makes you think they don't think too much of the solution the Euro and GGEM have been painting and place pretty heavy emphasis on the NAM. Will be VERY interesting to see the 0z modeling tonight. 0z NAM will probably be telling with the new data on the northern stream included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I find it interesting that MRX has two models that have been really rock steady in the EURO and GGEM over the past two days, combined with a GFS that has been slowly upping the snowfall amounts the last three runs and they are staying VERY conservative in their wording. It makes you think they don't think too much of the solution the Euro and GGEM have been painting and place pretty heavy emphasis on the NAM. Will be VERY interesting to see the 0z modeling tonight. 0z NAM will probably be telling with the new data on the northern stream included. I've always found with MRX it depends on the shift. Their day shift has always tended to be more conservative, and sometimes for the better, and their overnight shift be more liberal and again sometimes for the better. I think if the Euro stays the course, and the GFS continues its trend of what appears to be coming along to join the Euro, then MRX after 0Z data will change their wording in favor of a more significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 JKL indicated that they are completely ignoring the GGEM/ECMWF. Possibly the first time I've ever saw them ignore the Euro when it's been this consistent for this many days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 JKL indicated that they are completely ignoring the GGEM/ECMWF. Possibly the first time I've ever saw them ignore the Euro when it's been this consistent for this many days in a row. I find it odd as well. The Euro is a good model. My rule of thumb is that if the Euro is consistent & has support it should not be ignored. Going to be interesting to see what is shown later on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 JKL indicated that they are completely ignoring the GGEM/ECMWF. Possibly the first time I've ever saw them ignore the Euro when it's been this consistent for this many days in a row. Very odd. so that means they are going with the "rock steady" NAM/GFS.......? Probably more of them not thinking the phase will be that strong or that far west, but in normal years I'd NEVER bet against the Euro within day 5, with so many consecutive runs that have been so consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 These GFS runs continue to Cobb out very low for the central valley. I'm very glad to see the QPF on the up, but temps are still a concern there, possibly even with GGEM. Euro looked considerably colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Stove, I'm hearing the Euro EPS is further east and shows lower totals for us in East Tennessee, is this true? Are you hiding this from us to keep up moral lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Checked out Robert's update on his site. He's only calling for 1 - 3 inches for the Knox area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Stove, I'm hearing the Euro EPS is further east and shows lower totals for us in East Tennessee, is this true? Are you hiding this from us to keep up moral lol. I've not had a chance to look at that yet. I was hoping they'd be up. I'll post em for TN cities in a bit. Edit: Just glanced at the ensemble mean snow totals, they are UP considerably from 0z for east TN! Deterministic / Ensemble Mean Bristol 12.8/10.2 Knoxville 11.2/8.2 Chattanooga 10/8.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 okay well I was looking through posts on Roberts facebook and that's what people were saying, they must have been talking about locally in NC the higher amounts shifted east perhaps...who knows lol. that is somewhat of a relief. Thanks again for all the info you provide for the TN valley forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I've not had a chance to look at that yet. I was hoping they'd be up. I'll post em for TN cities in a bit. Edit: Just glanced at the ensemble mean snow totals, they are UP considerably from 0z for east TN! Deterministic / Ensemble Mean Bristol 12.8/10.2 Knoxville 11.2/8.2 Chattanooga 10/8.4 Oh boy!!! I really hope the runs later tonight are good to us! I want a free day off work this Thursday. That's some good news though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I've not had a chance to look at that yet. I was hoping they'd be up. I'll post em for TN cities in a bit. Edit: Just glanced at the ensemble mean snow totals, they are UP considerably from 0z for east TN! Deterministic / Ensemble Mean Bristol 12.8/10.2 Knoxville 11.2/8.2 Chattanooga 10/8.4 Right now, I think those numbers are being thrown out as outliers. Bout as real as I can be. I can't find a met that is buying them. I have always thought this trended west and we get in the game - big time. But...there is a difference in my saying that and a trained meteorologist. 0z will need to back these numbers up...or no dice. I personally think this could be a great storm...but the fact that the mets are not buying this gets my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Right now, I think those numbers are being thrown out as outliers. Bout as real as I can be. I can't find a met that is buying them. I have always thought this trended west and we get in the game - big time. But...there is a difference in my saying that and a trained meteorologist. 0z will need to back these numbers up...or no dice. I personally think this could be a great storm...but the fact that the mets are not buying this gets my attention. I think they are being more cautionary than anything. This thing will not hit until Wednesday evening, so there is plenty of time for adjustments. To get caught up in the west/east shifting would be silly at this point. The areas in the bullseye & and west of the bullseye over in NC are pretty well locked in. I think MWX is doing the right thing with staying conservative for now. They are putting word out that snow is coming without putting people into a panic just yet. 1-4 inches of predicted snowfall is good enough to get people into preparation mode. If the later models support the western shift of the precip they will pull the trigger on a WSW. Like I said, we still got lots of time to see how this will set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Best to play the flip side of the epic 12z Euro run. The NAM is basically zip. The NAM has been excellent inside of 48 hrs this winter. We need it to go big at 0z or I think it is time to strongly consider that the Euro/Canadian/UKMET are wrong. I like the trends of the 18z GFS...but it is the 18z GFS. It has been wrong more times than I can count. So, we are down to this....the 0z runs are the bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, full count, two people out, down by one. One swing and it's ball game. My guess...we score, but it is just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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