jmundie Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You all have been looking at these models for a lot longer than I have. Is it true that the NAM just isn't very accurate ever outside of 48 hours? I have read a ton of people that say that, but do you all believe that to be true? One thing that I've noticed is that this system just keeps getting pushed back further and further. Seemed like a couple of days ago we were looking at Monday. Now the main precip (whether we get anything or not) looks to be on Wed. FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One thing is certain, if you cling too closely to the NAM run to run you'll end up in a mental ward. I'm sure it has found the exact solution at some point because it has tried every possible one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just phased late. The stronger the solution, the better we are. It is the NAM past 48, but the phase is inside of the window. One run does not make a trend. Let's see if the Canadian and Euro hold. The NAM only showed E TN snow for three runs which is why it pays for MRX to be careful. Hope is not lost...just tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One thing that I've noticed is that this system just keeps getting pushed back further and further. Seemed like a couple of days ago we were looking at Monday. Now the main precip (whether we get anything or not) looks to be on Wed. This was always two distinct systems. The first was overrunning precip, and the second was the main low developing in the gulf around Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z Euro ensemble run down. Deterministic / Ensemble Mean (Big Dog = 6 inches or more) Bristol - 8.5/8.1 with 37 big dogs Chattanooga - 5.5/6.5 with 28 big dogs Crossville - 5.5/5.0 with 18 big dogs Knoxville - 6.5/6.2 with 27 big dogs Memphis - 2.5/1.9 with 2 big dogs Nashville - 3.6/2.4 with 4 big dogs Jackson - 3.2/1.7 with 1 big dog Paris - 0.7/1.0 with 0 big dogs Tupelo - 1.0/2.0 with 0 big dogs Huntsville - 2.4/2.7 with 2 big dogs Asheville - 11.9/13.0 all but 4 are big dogs with 2 members over 2 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Any thoughts on the RGEM at 48 and whether it looks like it would phase soonish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If this does not sum it up! from the 12z GFS....66 HR...nice "eye" of 32+ right over Knoxville.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If this does not sum it up! from the 12z GFS....66 HR...nice "eye" of 32+ right over Knoxville.... It is kinda nuts how the higher resolution on models these days is starting to pick up on urban heat islands and topography with regards to surface temps. Euro consistently shows fewer accums in the Nashville basis and several degrees higher on surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z GFS clown at hour 84 Hour 72 showed a couple more inches but it seems to erode as the surface torches. Not sure I even buy this much given the temps. Still way better than yesterday's GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here's mine Seriously.....good luck to my TN peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't look now but the 12z GGEM is epic for much of TN. Haven't seen totals, just watching it here: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Ok look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z GGEM at hour 55: Still snowing in East TN at hour 73..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianP Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wish I could talk myself into thinking temps aren't an issue, but in reality they just are (according to some models)... Good news is, if we can get snow initially, and the rate is good enough, which it appears it could be, temps don't matter sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z GGEM snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianP Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z GGEM snow How has the GGEM done in this range historically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How has the GGEM done in this range historically? I'm not up on the verification scores so someone else would have to answer that. I've heard that it starts to do pretty well once you get closer to the 48 hour mark. If you ask jmundie he'll tell you it's garbage haha. Edit: Also, it has had Robert's attention lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pulled this from the SE forum. Allan Huffman's take on the storm. Not sure if so much of TN is not listed because he's not expecting much for us, or if he's just not including it. Well waited long enough. Here is my first map and a brief discussion. Well this is as difficult a map as I have ever had to make due to the many zones of p-type issues and also the model uncertainty, but this is my best guess. Synopsis A complicated setup as we see several s/w in the southern branch of the jet stream interact with each other while the northern branch of the jet stream delivers a fresh supply of cold polar/arctic air into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The high pressure is not too strong, around 1032-1035mb, but it is in a classical CAD position as the storm begins and transitions to a hybrid setup as the storm wears on. Diabatic processes will help intensify the damming and drive it well into South Carolina and Georgia. Right now, I feel like low pressure along the Gulf Coast will consolidate into a stronger area of low pressure east of Savannah/Charleston by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon a trough will capture this storm and begin to strengthen it rapidly while turning it north east of Hatteras. I do not expect the low pressure center to track up the coastal plain but to stay off shore. This fits historical events, climo, takes into account model biases, and the current synoptic pattern with the wedge locked in east of the mountains. Best Chance for Heavy Snow I see the area from NE Georgia into upstate South Carolina, western NC, and central Va as standing the best chance to receive very heavy snow. I have 8-12 inches there right now, but if the storm does indeed bomb and hug the coast amounts in excess of a foot are possible. This includes Greenville, SC, Asheville, Hickory, Greensboro into Roanoke. Best Chance for Severe Ice This zone is hard to pinpoint as we have an unusually wide transition zone with this Miller A type storm. Right now from central Georgia into central SC and into east-central NC stand the best chance of seeing 0.5 to 0.75 inches of freezing rain accrual. It is possible some areas could see up to 1 inch of ice accrual, but this would be an unusually severe case. This includes areas like Athens, Columbia, Fayetteville, and Raleigh. It is possible there could be a changeover to rain Wednesday night along the I-95 corridor and east in NC, but it could be brief or hold east of I-95. As of now, I do not think Raleigh-Durham changes to plain rain. There are many transition zones and mixed precipitation areas, so look at the map and that will tell you what I think for your area. I will update this as data changes. Confidence is still somewhat low but increasing some. Attached Images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How bout them 12z Euro apples.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How bout them 12z Euro apples.... Holy Smokes!!!! Whatever data the Euro injested, I hope the others do too, it's been amazingly consistent though for the last several days! I sure hope that verifies! The Euro and Canadian are epic! GFS not so much, NAM, well, it's just being the NAM, I hope haha. Jmundie, we will let it shift 30 miles for you as long as we can keep the temps at 850 and 2M cold enough for snow over here. Somehwere there is definitely going to be a sharp cutoff, where I guess we will just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabeejason Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12Z Euro looks great. Brought the good stuff to the NW a bit further. I'm hoping the trend continues with other models. Very nice to see the Euro spreading the love this way, especially after the NAM decided to pull everything east into NC. The Euro clown map puts 10.5 inches IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12Z Euro looks better to me but I am still cautionary (big surprise)...don't know how good the topo really is in the model...there could be some rain shadow effect...and scouring of the warmer BL temperatures is always difficult...just some of the reasons we might get Chopped... some of the clown map amounts don't necessarily look like they have a perfect topo depiction. Looks very sloppy for Chatt on this run, better for Knoxville and decent in surrounding areas. Many miles to go, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The track that the Canadian and Euro took were similar I guess? It looks like the Canadian would have been higher like the Euro regardless both were pretty epic IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 QPF from Euro Tys..1.04 tri....1.24 cha..i'll post your being you're on the border line WED 06Z 12-FEB 1.4 -1.1 1024 63 97 0.00 561 542 WED 12Z 12-FEB 0.2 -0.5 1023 83 99 0.09 560 542 WED 18Z 12-FEB 1.0 0.4 1019 92 99 0.21 558 543 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.3 -0.9 1014 97 100 0.43 551 540 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.2 -2.1 1011 96 98 0.24 545 536 THU 12Z 13-FEB -0.9 -2.4 1013 90 34 0.07 545 535 BNA .25 MEM..05 MDQ...Hunts WED 00Z 12-FEB 2.4 -2.1 1024 65 85 0.00 561 542 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.7 -0.5 1024 73 96 0.01 562 543 WED 12Z 12-FEB 1.4 0.1 1021 96 98 0.07 559 543 WED 18Z 12-FEB 2.0 0.3 1018 97 99 0.13 557 543 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.9 -1.1 1014 99 98 0.24 550 539 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.5 -2.7 1013 97 93 0.12 546 535 MSL TUE 06Z 11-FEB -1.6 -1.9 1026 56 80 0.00 562 541 TUE 12Z 11-FEB -2.1 -2.2 1027 57 84 0.05 561 540 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 2.9 -1.3 1027 46 87 0.00 562 541 WED 00Z 12-FEB 1.6 -1.0 1024 63 82 0.00 562 542 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.2 0.1 1023 63 91 0.01 562 543 WED 12Z 12-FEB 1.0 0.3 1020 89 97 0.04 559 543 WED 18Z 12-FEB 2.2 0.4 1018 98 99 0.11 556 542 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.7 -1.6 1015 99 99 0.24 550 538 If i left someone out shout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 All eyes will turn to the 0z runs tonight. I hope the Euro (and GGEM) are leading the pack here. By 0z runs tonight, the northern component to this potential storm will be sampled and we will see if there are any dramatic shifts. For the record, I certainly thought the 12z Euro would have been a little further east in light of the other 12z models (specifically the NAM & GFS), especially when the early pbp for the 12z Euro (from the se forum) was for the southern stream being further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What are the most accurate models this close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 you'd think the NAM would be but it already has a different look at h9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What are the most accurate models this close in? This year, I couldn't guess. All have struggled mightily, even under 36 hours. Any other year I'd say it's time to get out the shovels and sleds just based on the Euro, But that's not been the case this year. It's been well noted that the NAM especially has struggled even while events are underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What are the most accurate models this close in? Someone in another sub-form (can't remember who) said the SREF has done real well lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What are the most accurate models this close in? This is a good example of a question that goes in a banter thread...especially while the board is in storm mode. Perfectly acceptable question but we want to keep it from sidetracking the storm discusson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is probably going to miss most of us again, but it's a bit stronger and further north than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.