John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I suspect it's wrong tbh. It shows the precip beginning across the state in the morning hours. By 11 am it's over the Central Valley as snow. But it switches to rain briefly by 2 pm while the precip is falling at a decent clip. It's not very common to switch over to rain in the middle of an event while precip is falling steadily in my experience. The main thing of importance is that it now has basically .4 to .7 qpf from the Highland Rim and points East. It's more in line with the other models. Exact details like qpf amounts will vary, as will any temp issues, as we get closer. The storm track as of now is. favorable on all models for 2 to possibly a whole lot more inches of snow for a large portion of the Tennessee valley, John, is that because of time of day when the precip starts? In other words, if it started on Tuesday night rather than afternoon, that would likely be mainly snow at the onset, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 EPS lined up with the OP on the LP amping up and tracking over the Eastern Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 South Georgia up thru the nc coastal plain on the euro control. Eps is similar just a tick east in nc tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nashville Station ID: KBNA Lat: 36.11 Long: -86.68 NAM Model Run: 0Z 10FEB 2014 HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM 0 02/10 00Z 32 31 2 5 0.00 0.00 538 558 -2.3 -21.6 1024 100 060OVC200 0.0 15.1 3 02/10 03Z 29 27 12 9 0.00 0.00 539 558 -1.4 -21.3 1023 100 010OVC168 0.0 12.0 6 02/10 06Z 27 26 17 8 0.00 0.00 539 558 -2.9 -19.9 1024 97 006BKN269 0.0 13.2 9 02/10 09Z 27 25 12 8 0.00 0.00 538 557 -4.4 -21.5 1024 100 006OVC331 0.0 14.5 12 02/10 12Z 26 23 17 10 0.00 0.00 536 557 -4.9 -20.5 1025 100 007OVC254 0.0 14.7 15 02/10 15Z 29 22 19 11 0.00 0.00 536 557 -5.3 -20.4 1027 100 011OVC317 0.0 15.0 18 02/10 18Z 30 23 16 10 0.00 0.00 535 556 -5.8 -20.6 1027 100 -SN 009OVC331 0.0 3.7 21 02/10 21Z 33 21 17 10 0.00 0.00 536 555 -6.0 -20.6 1024 100 055OVC259 0.0 15.0 24 02/11 00Z 29 21 8 10 0.00 0.00 535 556 -5.5 -21.5 1027 100 189OVC253 0.0 15.1 27 02/11 03Z 24 20 17 10 0.00 0.00 535 557 -4.7 -21.9 1028 28 013SCT021 0.0 15.1 30 02/11 06Z 21 17 25 9 0.00 0.00 534 557 -5.0 -22.3 1028 38 006SCT047 0.0 15.1 33 02/11 09Z 20 16 27 9 0.00 0.00 534 556 -4.5 -22.3 1028 77 000BKN176 0.0 14.4 36 02/11 12Z 20 15 35 10 0.00 0.00 535 557 -3.4 -21.3 1028 86 000BKN213 0.0 15.0 39 02/11 15Z 26 15 38 10 0.00 0.00 535 558 -3.5 -21.6 1030 83 213BKN283 0.0 15.1 42 02/11 18Z 32 17 29 10 0.00 0.00 536 558 -2.3 -21.9 1027 82 117BKN194 0.0 15.1 45 02/11 21Z 38 21 33 10 0.00 0.00 537 557 -2.5 -22.7 1025 43 137SCT174 0.0 15.0 48 02/12 00Z 30 24 28 8 0.00 0.00 538 558 -1.8 -21.5 1026 53 271BKN285 0.0 15.0 51 02/12 03Z 24 22 37 8 0.00 0.00 539 559 -2.0 -21.0 1026 17 169FEW226 0.0 15.0 54 02/12 06Z 26 23 57 8 0.00 0.00 540 558 -0.9 -20.9 1023 51 147BKN220 0.0 15.0 57 02/12 09Z 27 23 46 6 0.00 0.00 540 557 -1.1 -20.8 1022 100 053OVC268 0.0 14.8 60 02/12 12Z 30 26 52 6 0.03 0.00 540 557 -1.5 -20.3 1021 100 -FZRN 018OVC301 0.0 6.7 63 02/12 15Z 30 29 30 6 0.16 0.00 539 555 -2.2 -19.7 1020 100 SN 005OVC212 1.6 0.4 66 02/12 18Z 31 30 1 7 0.17 0.00 537 551 -2.9 -21.0 1017 100 SN 005OVC193 1.7 0.5 69 02/12 21Z 31 30 5 8 0.13 0.00 535 548 -3.1 -21.9 1015 100 -SN 006OVC256 1.3 0.9 72 02/13 00Z 30 29 348 9 0.06 0.00 533 546 -3.5 -23.9 1015 100 -SN 003OVC255 0.5 1.2 75 02/13 03Z 29 28 332 10 0.02 0.00 532 545 -3.6 -25.7 1016 100 010OVC254 0.0 14.1 78 02/13 06Z 27 25 313 9 0.00 0.00 531 544 -3.1 -26.4 1016 82 010BKN055 0.0 14.4 81 02/13 09Z 20 19 309 7 0.00 0.00 532 545 -2.4 -25.3 1017 77 005BKN014 0.0 5.4 84 02/13 12Z 16 15 287 5 0.00 0.00 534 549 -1.9 -22.2 1019 71 005BKN011 0.0 5.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kbna.txt who ever don't have the NAM,you can change BNA on the link and put in your airport and find your plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Keep it rolling today, everyone. Positive developments/trends overnight. Thanks for the overnight disco. Looks like TN has a good chance at a decent snowfall. Let's keep our fingers crossed! Keep posting those maps and discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not happy at all this morning. Woke up to find that they have removed us from the winter storm watch. Can someone explain what happened and if we will be getting any frozen precip here now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The start stays surpressed for you,but who even knows if thats gonna be right.What is your airport code?MSL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS starting to come around. 6z snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z GGEM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 6z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The start stays surpressed for you,but who even knows if thats gonna be right.What is your airport code?MSL? Airport code is KHSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 nams throwing down some serious ice about Jackson to B'Ham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The latest SREF freezing surface temp probabilities are a little bit concerning in east TN, central to southern valley. Bob has mentioned concern as well. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Stove, what do the SREF surface temps look like? Is there a lot of flunctuation through the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I was spot checking some of the data this morning from the Euro, and it looked close, but pretty good for KTRI. Was Mr. Bob talking about the central and southern valley only, or up this way too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I was spot checking some of the data this morning from the Euro, and it looked close, but pretty good for KTRI. Was Mr. Bob talking about the central and southern valley only, or up this way too? He seemed to be mainly referring to the 0z Euro and 0z GFS runs, said 6z NAM looked better and that he hoped the 2m temps would trend a little better. Don't want to put words in his mouth but I think he was focusing on central to southern valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Stove, what do the SREF surface temps look like? Is there a lot of flunctuation through the event? I've not dug very deep, just glanced at the probability maps for below freezing surface temps and they looked low for a good chunk of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 6z NAM looks fine...I hope everything goes that way...the 00Z Euro is troubling to me wrt to the BL....I think this all underperforms in the eastern valley from Knox down to Chatt if the 00Z Euro is the verified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Energy diving in from the northwest, should make for quite a Carolina system in the next few frames beyond hour 51, but verdict still out on east TN. Fortunately, it's the NAM beyond 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Phasing is a little later on the 12z NAM, which looks like it's going to yield a much different result (for TN), and as Mr. Bob mentioned, surface temps in most of TN are going to be problematic (verbatim) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Surface looks warm this run, precip building in at hour 60. Not going to be as good for East TN I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm kind of shocked by MRX on that. Very bullish of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 they issued a watch for the mountains for 3-5 inches as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Big change in attitude from last night! I'm hoping if we get good precip rates, BL issues won't be as much of a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12Z NAM phases late...no other way to put it. This run leaves the Valley completely snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You all have been looking at these models for a lot longer than I have. Is it true that the NAM just isn't very accurate outside of 48 hours? I have read a ton of people that say that, but do you all believe that to be true? One thing that I've noticed is that this system just keeps getting pushed back further and further. Seemed like a couple of days ago we were looking at Monday. Now the main precip (whether we get anything or not) looks to be on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.