John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's been very consistent for similar totals for the last several runs. I'm gonna get excited if it looks like this tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I fell asleep but wake up to find the Canadian and Euro strongly on board. Here is the clown map for the CMC/GEM: After the 0z suite we have the CMC/Euro/UKMET showing the same general solution with the GFS an outlier on the low side and the NAM as an outlier on the high side. I like where we are at but there is still time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 John, the Forecast Discussion for Memphis and Nashville aren't buying this snow at all. They say models are in agreement it will be at the TN border and I don't see how that's possible. MRX comes the closest to buying it, but that was written in the early afternoon. Nashville and Memphis seem to be going with the GFS, but saying models agree. That makes no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM is coming in slightly slower than the 00z. Similar position and strength of the Gulf Low, just about 6 hours slower though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I've not read them, but I can't imagine they are from this morning and are saying that. Was that yesterday's AFD? John, the Forecast Discussion for Memphis and Nashville aren't buying this snow at all. They say models are in agreement it will be at the TN border and I don't see how that's possible. MRX comes the closest to buying it, but that was written in the early afternoon. Nashville and Memphis seem to be going with the GFS, but saying models agree. That makes no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This run of the NAM is going to crush 40 and points south from around Nashville and points East. QPF shield isn't as far north as 00z, but the placement and strength of the low were almost exactly the same, and that's what matters most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I've not read them, but I can't imagine they are from this morning and are saying that. Was that yesterday's AFD? They were through late Sunday night after the GFS was run, except for MRX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Actually, the NAM was much warmer that run and there's a good bit of precip lost to rain for places south of 40. North of 40 and West of 81, not as much QPF fell as at 00z, 40 and South gets more rain. East of 81 gets hammered with big snow still. Totals are basically 2 inches around the highland rim, 4 inches on the Southern Plateau, then rapidly increasing totals across the Valley towards the NE mountains from 2 to 14 inches. I suspect some of this is due to the precip going from arriving early in the morning and starting as snow to arriving around 1-2 in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 They were through late Sunday night after the GFS was run, except for MRX. They've not updated with their morning AFD yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MRX issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Smokies. The AFD isn't out yet, but this tells me they're likely riding the GFS. Almost have to be. Every other model shows watch criteria snows outside of the mountains in the CWA. They issued it for 3-5 inches for elevations above 2500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, it was maybe 11ish central time, so I may have been assuming the "latest models" included the GFS, but they say for the 2nd system it starts on the TN border. The SE Forum guys say the NAM is way too warm normally, (I have no idea if true, but GaWx is pretty good as far as I can tell) so maybe those temps won't be as warm. I'd be happy with 3.5-4 inches right now. Thanks, John. We know the Smokies should get more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still no disco, but my forecast updated with 20/30 percent chances of rain/snow. JKL has higher precip chances 50 miles north of me than MRX currently advertises. I'd guess they're being their normal self and holding out as long as they can before issuing any products or upping precip chances. Can't really blame them, everytime they issue decent chances it seems to fail. Like the current 50 percent chance of snow we've had going overnight and into today. Upstream radar has been a wasteland all night but they updated and carried it over into the new forecast for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's where we wanted it. We want it to go from the Gulf Coast, to South Georgia and across the Carolina coastal plain if possible. Off shore = less snow potential for the Tennessee Valley. We want it far enough west to hit us with precip, while keeping us cold enough for snow. Carvers - from caseyWXwatcher - Wow euro eps mean has low pressure centered over the NC coast at hr84, definitely not offshore either. Is that where you wanted the low? Or is that too late to help East TN? I hope it's ok to copy a post from there if I give credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 John, that may have come in slower, but it's snowing hard in the beginning. TYS total went up to 7.8 snow on Cobb Data. You want to check that I have the right info? ktys 06z Nam That's crushing Knoxville with snow the first few hours, isn't it? I think that's a couple of inches higher than last time Stovepipe posted it. =oops, sorry John. I had gotten scared I'd broken a rule and deleted that. Here's the Cobb Data link I used in case I messed it up and someone can check me in the morning. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=ktys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You can see their maps, but its BARELY inside the coast. Someone said the Greenville/Spartanburg office says it's going through the piedmont and I nearly never found it, but it's in their discussion here: THE SFC REFLECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP S AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION TO THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COAST WED NIGHT...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED 850 MB LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY TRACK THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE FAVORABLE NW SIDE OF THE LOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LATE WED/WED NIGHT. Link to discussion. I hope this is the same/correct low. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&product=AFD&issuedby=GSP&format=txt&version=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 From JKL. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR WINTRY THREATSTHAT WE HAVE ENDURED FOR MUCH OF THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF. AFTER AQUIET AND COLD NIGHT...WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MOISTURE SEEPING NORTH FROMTHE GULF OF MEXICO UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A LOW TAKES SHAPEOVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND STARTS TO TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERNAPPALACHIANS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL SPREAD A COMMA HEAD OF PCPNINTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE JKL CWA.WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THIS MOISTURE WILL FALL AS MAINLYSNOW...HEAVY AND WET...THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nashville Discussion just said they'll issue their Tuesday and beyond "shortly". That was just a few minutes ago my time. TRI Cobb Data went up to 10.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like MRX is finally starting to update their forecast. No disco yet, but daily forecast has changed in last 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lawdy mercy well this is nice to wake up to. Thanks for the overnight discussion folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Vol4Life, we have a 60% chance of a little snow today. That wasn't there a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hey Stovepipe! Check my Cobb Data for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hearing that GFS 06Z run made a move in the right direction for us. Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow....MRX seems to be going with an "ignore all models" blend. THE MAINEVENT APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONGERSHORT WAVE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE SYSTEM WILLGENERATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THENORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVESNORTHEAST INTO ALABAMA AND GEORGIA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULFWILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULDBE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANMOUNTAINS WHERE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL BY DAYBREAKWEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHTCOULD BRING TOTALS TO AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITHLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5000 FEET. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEYMAINLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTTOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MRX just updated disco...stated 3-5 for mountains and 1-2 inches for the Valley. Conservative is an understatement!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 06 did shift snow over to the West side of the Apps. Now showing 2-4 across Eastern Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 "Ignore all models blend" lol. Sorry, I'm sleepy and that cracked me up. Haha, should we clue MRX in, John? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With that in mind, the GFS is still the furthest East and it's generally weakest right now. This will probably shift further WNW today, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS would be higher but it's coming in with very warm temps as the precip starts, which causes rain to fall in the Central Valley and West of the Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The new weather girl on WBIR was on at nearly midnight after the late Olympics and she said we could see the biggest accumulations in over a decade. I hope the superintendent listens to her and not MRX on Wed. They may end up right but gosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 John, is that because of time of day when the precip starts? In other words, if it started on Tuesday night rather than afternoon, that would likely be mainly snow at the onset, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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