Vol Man Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Maybe they will be right, but MRX still not real excited yet for the valley in their afternoon disco... SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH HEAVIERAMOUNTS OF A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CREST OREAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHTINTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTMEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THENORTHERN GULF AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND THEN MOVE IT NE ACROSSTHE SE STATES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEMS TRACK MAY GIVE THEEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WITHUPPER FLOW SWITCHING TO THE NW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MOREACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER EASTERNMOUNTAINS AND HIGH KNOB AREA OF VIRGINIA. MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLEBRIEF DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEMMOVES IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Maybe they will be right, but MRX still not real excited yet for the valley in their afternoon disco... I am sorry but MRX ,especially this year, seems to always be making their forcast in reaction to their last misstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For the record I think the GFS will offer the same solution as it's previous runs. Normally it is slower and more stubborn to latch on to trends. Read JKL's discussion and they are siding with the GFS for now because it holds the less dramatic solution. 18z GFS is running let's so what it has up its sleeve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That is extremely rare, as JKL almost always sides with a Euro/Euromeans blend. This is the most telling statement about how awful models have been this year. GIVEN RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE JUST A FEW HOURS OUT...THE LIGHT SNOWTONIGHT COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THOUGH THERE IS PROBABLY AN EQUALCHANCE OF IT BEING MORE SCATTERED THAN OUR CURRENT GOOD CHANCE TOLIKELY POPS WOULD SUGGEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS is out to hour 78 and it holds on to the southern solution. Only the far eastern valley and mountains get more than 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z is almost the same as the 12z GFS. It's out there by itself for now but probably has as good a chance at being right as any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Self explanatory Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'd love to see it 100 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFES is better for QPF than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 South of us again! NWS HSV has decreased the likelihood of snow for northern Alabama for Monday-Tuesday. I hope they are wrong, wrong, wrong (but they usually are not). http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HUN&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Sent from my KFTT HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z Euro ensemble snow totals Deterministic / Ensemble Mean Bristol 4.4/5.8 with 14 greater than 8 inches Chattanooga 2.9/4.5 with 7 greater than 8 inches Knoxville 4.4/4.2 with 9 greater than 8 inches Crossville 5.1/3.8 with 8 greater than 8 inches Nashville 1.7/1.7 with 2 greater than 8 inches Jackson 0.2/1.1 Paris 0.1/0.6 Memphis 0.4/1.6 Tupelo 1.8/1.8 with 1 greater than 8 inches Huntsville 1.8/2.6 with 1 greater than 8 inches Asheville 8.5/11.0 with 33 greater than 10 inches It's notable that for the east TN cites almost every member shows 2 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z GFS ensemble qpf. I don't believe this storm is going out to sea. I will be shocked if that happens. With that said, this should trend north and west with time to look more like the euro. I am hoping for an earlier phase for all of us. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Sorry, I cannot seem to make the map appear on my kindle http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hun&gc=5 Sent from my KFTT HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Robert just posted this on FB, and has the video ready for premium subscribers. Video is done for premium subscribers. I laid out where the worst of the worst is, and in one graphic, such as this one, I'm very concerned on the infrastructure, trees and keeping Power for the Piedmont, Foothills and even Sandhills of the southeast. The area at most risk is here. The snow first, then a lot of sleet (which won't be a bad thing on power) but there will be a lot of freezing rain from the Midlands of SC toward Augusta and Atlanta in the heart of the event.Gee...See More Like · · Share · 201624 · 9 minutes ago · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 South of us again! NWS HSV has decreased the likelihood of snow for northern Alabama for Monday-Tuesday. I hope they are wrong, wrong, wrong (but they usually are not). http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HUN&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Sent from my KFTT HD How do we go from a big one to nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the NAM and Euro looked good for North Alabama. If we can get the GFS to come around we'll be okay. May not be a huge storm by no means but snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One thing that is showing up on the latest runs are some surface temp issues in East TN. May not be a big deal or it might. For example, the 18z NAM meteogram shows 4.8 inches at 11:1 ratio for TYS. The cobb is 1.5 inches. Not trying to focus on too many details right now as models are still wiggling around, but just noting the potential for the temps to cut down totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm just hoping for QPF in my neck of the woods. I believe, unless there's quite a dramatic change, the cold will be there because we'll be on the Northwest side of the system that is bombing Southeast of us. That should mostly eliminate warm nose issues if that's what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do we go from a big one to nothing? Welcome to the TN Valley snowdome - been over Nashville for years:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just looking at the ensemble tracks from the GFS and GGEM. Both have tracks across northern FL, then pretty far off the coast, before making the turn. Certainly not a heavy snow track for anyone in east Tn, let alone central Tn. We really need an earlier phase or an enormous qpf field. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Really surprised that the models haven't shown a distinct NW trend yet. Obviously, there is still plenty of time for this thing to move. Always has amazed me how a mere 50-100 mile shift can have such a dramatic impact on precipitation type and amount! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Before the 0z runs start Id like to say that the energy for the 2nd wave that we are eyeing is still out in the North Pacific. How this energy dives out of Montana will play a large role in the evolution of this storm. A little sharper and further west then the phase and negative tilt may occur quicker but that is just speculation. Going back to the 18z NAM I know this is at 84 hours but I really like the look at 500mb. There's even a chance that this closes off to the southeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z NAM @ 60 goes crazy over TN on the sim radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just when you've think you've seen it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Precip shield is covering all of TN on the NAM. Can't wait to see if this wraps up and what the clown maps look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 its gonna crush most of the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z NAM is WAAAY west....and I mean waayy west w/ the precip field. Phased earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Almost similar to the CMC 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just an incredible run right there folks! Here's the clown map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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