tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Like the track of the Euro, from Mobile through the eastern Carolina's, at least that's what I interpret it to be. That's a good southern apps track. 2-4 type deal.........I am in Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Whoa Chattanooga! I grew up a few miles north of Cleveland. My late mom's condo is in Monroe county just on the edge of the mountain side of that county. I haven't gone through her stuff yet, but I had the cable turned off or I'd head that way. She loved snow like I do and I bet they get a decent one. Carvers- Is the hoped for low up North Carolina one that needs to be around the Outer Banks? How far inland in NC can it go to still hit East TN? We need a low to go through pretty far south and then turn up the coast, right? I'm unsure how far inland, if at all, it can come for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 1234, at this point, I'd take 4" and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here are my thoughts... 1. It won't take that exact track as the 0z Euro...just too far out in time to be exact. Lots of wiggle room. 2. Here is the deal. A potent winter storm is is being modeled to roar up the coast. That pressure deepens IMO it will jog west, maybe considerably. That is not wishcasting, we have all seen this many times. I'll take it there instead of upstate SC - in that case I would worry about mixing. 3. The models appear to be converging now on a big storm. It will take several runs to hash this out. Can't rise and fall w/ every model run. 4. Enjoy tracking this thing. Looks like some our good friends(could be us, might not be) are going to get a great event. We can learn a ton from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here are my thoughts... 1. It won't take that exact track as the 0z Euro...just too far out in time to be exact. Lots of wiggle room. 2. Here is the deal. A potent winter storm is is being modeled to roar up the coast. That pressure deepens IMO it will jog west, maybe considerably. That is not wishcasting, we have all seen this many times. I'll take it there instead of upstate SC - in that case I would worry about mixing. 3. The models appear to be converging now on a big storm. It will take several runs to hash this out. Can't rise and fall w/ every model run. 4. Enjoy tracking this thing. Looks like some our good friends(could be us, might not be) are going to get a great event. We can learn a ton from this. Good post, I especially agree on the red bolded part. This has been fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Whoa Chattanooga! I grew up a few miles north of Cleveland. My late mom's condo is in Monroe county just on the edge of the mountain side of that county. I haven't gone through her stuff yet, but I had the cable turned off or I'd head that way. She loved snow like I do and I bet they get a decent one. Carvers- Is the hoped for low up North Carolina one that needs to be around the Outer Banks? How far inland in NC can it go to still hit East TN? We need a low to go through pretty far south and then turn up the coast, right? I'm unsure how far inland, if at all, it can come for us. The models have not been near enough consistent for me to guess based on them. NE TN can score w/ the track "as is" which is a coastal(basically right on the beach) track. Having lived in Knoxville, you want to see the low eject from Mobile into south Georgia into the coastal plain - like Columbia, SC. (Maybe Columbia isn't the coastal plain) Here is the thing, I would never want to be in the bulls eye this far out. It is going to move, that is a certainty. Watch the trend. Is each run jogging west or east? Also, look at the ensembles...bout the safest bet right now. We have only had two Euro runs w/ this solution. The Canadian now has it. I like where we are, though NO model for sure paints anything more than 2-4" outside of the mountains in TN. If you said, "Hey, Carvers. Would you take a strengthening low over Hatteras 3-4 days out even if the models don't show snow over your area in big amounts?" 100% of the time I would take it. edit: What is crazy...I always worry in the back of my mind that this tracks too far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Agree with Robert despite model debacle overnight. Also include northern Mississippi. Remember an inch is historic in the South, lol! Making fun of ATL not Robert. Like your managed expectations in Tenn. But if you believe the latest NAM the Carolinas see a major winter storm on Wednesday. SC has damaging ice and NC has a nice swath of snow. Keep in mind Robert gives the Carolinas lots of attention. Wednesday we have temperature issues in Tenn. However the Carolinas wedge is entrenched. After the 12Z Euro and some stuff for work I will post my forecast update for our Tenn Valley and Mid South region in the Feb 10-11 thread. If Wed looks more interesting I'd put that on THIS thread. I agree Jeff, this does have "historic" potential (definition differs depending on your region). I realize Robert is regional, not TN specific. It's a bold call, but I think a big ticket item is certainly possible, maybe even probable. (Especially east of the apps) Rooting for him to be correct, I'd like to see someone get buried. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I never felt comfortable with a north trend with the lead overrunning wave, but THIS (2nd wave) is the type of system we see commence with a north and west trend as we get closer. I feel pretty food about where TN is after seeing some of the euro and Canadian maps and seeing the overall setup portrayed.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thank you, Carvers. I think I can picture the low you describe (it has to be strong, right?) because that's what my father used to tell me before message boards existed. I saw someone mention a a low coming up past HAT late last night, and I figured that was your hoped for track you described yesterday. I think it's been a huge amount of fun. I just hope the people on this forum cash in, including Middle TN and Northern Bama because they got left out last week. If it misses me, I have lots of snow in Sochi to pretend I'm there, lol. That slopestyle snowboarding was fun. Edit: For my area, the low needs to be slightly inland then? In SC and NC or just SC? I swear I won't ask anymore questions. I'll just let you guys do your thing and enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I never felt comfortable with a north trend with the lead overrunning wave, but THIS (2nd wave) is the type of system we see commence with a north and west trend as we get closer. I feel pretty good about where TN is after seeing some of the euro and Canadian maps and seeing the overall setup portrayed.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Exactly. Like I said, 100% of the time I'll take this set-up assuming it is being modeled correctly. Might not get a big storm every time, but like in baseball, you are looking for a certain pitch to hit. This is that pitch. If this system fully phases, my wx hobbyist guess would be that it goes inside Hatteras, ie inland a tad. The Canadian is a great example of this. If it is a partial phase, maybe not. The Euro seemed to "hint" at an early phase. That is also a key. The earlier it phases(but not too early) the better the east and middle TN would do...Nothing is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The euro ensembles were east of the op last night. We really need them in line or even west of the op for 12z, especially if you are in northern AL and middle TN Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 From Robert on Facebook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I figured I would post some thoughts on the Euro and the 2nd wave in general. Above is the 96 hour 500mb vort from the 12z run. This is very close to being something special for us in the TN Valley. If our upper energy tilts neutral/negative further west than what is shown here then we could get hammered. It really is that close. The GFS has this feature much further south and positively tilted. I feel like the GFS does better with more zonal flows while the Euro does better with amplified storms such as this one. I would feel better if the coastal low tracked more inland and that would be a direct result of what the 500mb energy does. But like Carver and Nut said we can still do decent with a track just off the coast, it just wouldn't be as good with the backside band. I'm glad the CMC and Euro are really hopping on the 2nd wave train. I'd rather take my chances on a Miller A then a weak overrunning event. I will say that this could stay positive tilt and and track offshore into fish land because it is close to doing that as well like the GFS advertised. But we have witnessed the GFS do this far to often with Miller A tracks. We have 96 hours to go which is an eternity in model land so hang on to your *** Fred! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 From HPC...................... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD133 PM EST SUN FEB 09 2014VALID FEB 09/1200 UTC THRU FEB 13/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA BROAD AND SLOWLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM SHOULD GUARANTEE ASTRONGER SYSTEM WITH TIME, BUT ITS PROGRESSION HINTS THAT A FASTERPROGRESSION WITH THIS DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS MORE LIKELY. THISHAS BEEN BORNE OUT IN THE ECMWF TRENDS SINCE ITS 00Z RUN, THOUGHIT HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED ALOFT. THE 12Z GFSSHOWS A MENAGERIE OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYESFROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY ONWARD, WHICHCAN EXPLAIN ITS QUICKER PROGRESSION. WITH CONVERGING GUIDANCEALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, BELIEVE A NON-GFS COMPROMISE IS THE BESTCOURSE OF ACTION FOR THE TIME BEING, PREFERRED WITH AVERAGECONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The euro ensembles were east of the op last night. We really need them in line or even west of the op for 12z, especially if you are in northern AL and middle TN Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk So now the track is missing us to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hope to see this trend negative on the next run for mid tenn ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 1234....I like your Smokey and the Bandit reference.. ...now, if we can get a little of that negative tilt, let it stay just a tad inland...we just might be in business.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So now the track is missing us to the east? The track itself is a good track for northern AL, but it gets going (deepening) a little too late to hit you guys verbatim. What you guys need is a system that digs a little more and goes negative tilt a little sooner, which would enhance qpf further south and west. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So now the track is missing us to the east? No not necessarily. Tnweathernut was just pointing out that last night's 0z Euro ensembles were slightly to the east of operational run. The ensembles for today's 12z Euro run should come in soon this afternoon. The ensembles are another tool to see if the operational run has any support or merit. If the ensembles showed the more west track of the operational then it would lend the op more credit. The ensembles are just a spread mean of the individual members and not the operational run that we see. Therefore ensembles will not have the extremes that the operational models have. Hope this cleared up some confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z NAM is looking considerably better than it's previous 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z NAM pulling yet another solution in a series. Looks like it jumps on the first wave yet again. Good run for Chatt...maybe temp issues. Man, I can barely keep up! LOL. Waiting to see how it handles the energy skirting the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z NAM snow: What are the units, man!? You know, I was looking on the SE forum and Burger's map had nothing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z NAM pulling yet another solution in a series. Looks like it jumps on the first wave yet again. Good run for Chatt...maybe temp issues. Man, I can barely keep up! LOL. Waiting to see how it handles the energy skirting the GOM. Yeah the NAM looks stronger with the first wave but it also picks up on the 2nd wave but is not as far west with the precip shield. It does look better and is going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z NAM clown map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Stove and 1234, looks like a nice band develops as the low pulls northward. That is where we want to be! And for the record, the event is not over in E TN by hour 84! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What are the units, man!? You know, I was looking on the SE forum and Burger's map had nothing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I guess you could say the nam was a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Burger ended the map @ 75. Storm is still going here all the way through 84. Significant for E TN IMO. Good trends. Bout time for a GIF. franklin ncwx. No kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Need a stovepipe breakdown of the euro ensemble members when it's available...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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