John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 3:57 AM, Reb said: what time does the CMC/GGEM run? The hard to read black and white maps will be out soon. The easy to read, specific, full color maps will be out in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The meteogram for 0z NAM at TYS shows: A little over 1.2 inches of QPF Temp briefly tops out at 34 degrees .29 inches of freezing rain Trace of sleet 6.7 inches of snow 11:1 ratio 5.1 inches of snow Cobb 4.0 inches of snow Cobb with compaction Sounds like a lot of fun to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anyone in east TN that doesn't see the positives in the 0z GFS is loopy. That was a huge correction and its not going to be the final solution either. Just keep the 12z euro ensemble map in the back of your mind...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 4 years ago I'd have been jumping for joy to see the GFS there 3 days out. Cause it was always coming NW. This year, all the models are just cracked out, even within 18-24 hours. I don't know how to take any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 4:02 AM, Stovepipe said: The meteogram for 0z NAM at TYS shows: A little over 1.2 inches of QPF Temp briefly tops out at 34 degrees .29 inches of freezing rain Trace of sleet 6.7 inches of snow 11:1 ratio 5.1 inches of snow Cobb 4.0 inches of snow Cobb with compaction Sounds like a lot of fun to me! That's sort of like the January 30th 2010 storm. I'm not seeing the freezing rain on the skew-t. What does the 850 get to there? It usually takes it getting above 2 c to be zr and not sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think that the solution the NAM and Euro show is the ceiling for this event. The GFS was better that run. Hopefully it is trending toward other models but is always slow to do so. I think 2-4 is a safe bet right now for most of TN given what we have seen today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 tnweathernut...agree w/ you about the GFS. DT basically rejected it 100% on FB because it is still catching up to the other models. Also said the NAM has support but probably wouldn't be right but...might be close. All paraphrasing. Heading to bed. Talk to you all tomorrow evening. Looks like a big storm is on the way for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nathan Scott altered his wording on the 11 news, saying latest data bumps up snowfall amounts wednesday and talked about potentially 4 inches or more...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 4:16 AM, tnweathernut said: Nathan Scott altered his wording on the 11 news, saying latest data bumps up snowfall amounts wednesday and talked about potentially 4 inches or more...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah looks like he showed the 0z NAM. WCYB's turn now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like the 0z GGEM hits east TN hard, but hard to see those crappy b&w maps on your iPhone! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 4:29 AM, tnweathernut said: Looks like the 0z GGEM hits east TN hard, but hard to see those crappy b&w maps on your iPhone! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Out to 57 here: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Edit: Snowing in east TN by hour 59 Edit: It's cranking at 62, gonna be another big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Our local met here in Madison is now saying we won't see much tomorrow night in to Tuesday, but should see some Wednesday. This is the first I have heard about this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At hour 78 GGEM is still pouring snow on east TN. Looks like it will be better than 12z but I've not seen accum maps. Edit: So from hour 59 until 84 all snow on the ptype in east TN. Looked like some mixing towards middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Canadian clown will be colorful I'd imagine. Wraps up nicely...... More expansive qpf in the state of TN Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 does tennessee exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS always has problems with the S/Stream,,heres an example from tonights model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't follow DT for specifics. He doesn't predict well for our area. As far as his map, he might as well have just posted the euro ensembles IMO. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Canadian precip looks like 10-15mm or so across most of the Tennessee Valley from Nashville and East but could be more, especially east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UKMET is a bigger hit than the Canadian and it only goes to 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So as of now we have the Canadian, UKMET, NAM, and Euro all on board as of their latest runs vs the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UKMET at 72, and it's probably going to keep on cranking after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thanks John! UKMET is insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 21z sref ens from 60-72 hours have quite a few individual members that clock Tennessee pretty well with this one. Almost all members show the Eastern half of the Valley with decent precip, but they vary on timing. Some has the low near Tallahassee at hour 60, some have it there at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Canadian total precip that falls as snow. 15mm = .6 inches as a scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not able to see the fine details on the Euro but hour 72 has a 1006 LP over South Georgia with good 850s for all the TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SE Forum - Euro a little more south. Looking at weathernut's map above, that should be ok? (That was through hour 48). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 6.5 inches at TYS still snowing through 78. statewide 3+ inches....WOOOOOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Every model vs the GFS at this point. I expect winter storm watches by tomorrow evening if this doesn't all go poof on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 euro clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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