Chattownsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 12:48 AM, Stovepipe said: Good idea, I totally forgot about those. Let me get these kids to bed and I'll post what they show. sweet thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 12:45 AM, Jaxjagman said: Control shows your area 3+" if that helps thanks for the answer! I appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:07 AM, weathertree4u said: Looks like this is going mainly south of Nashville - am I missing something? Don't buy this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z Euro ensemble snow totals. Deterministic / Ensemble Mean Bristol 3.0/5.0 Chattanooga 5.3/4.0 Crossville 4.0/4.0 Nashville 1.9/2.4 Jackson 2.7/1.7 Paris 3.9/3.7 Memphis 3.5/1.8 Knoxville 3.9/3.8 Huntsville 3.6/2.8 Tupelo 2.5/2.2 Asheville 8.7/9.0 There are some wild big dog members in there. East TN looks particularly good and West NC is ridiculous as you'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:07 AM, weathertree4u said: Looks like this is going mainly south of Nashville - am I missing something? Nope, but these systems from the west can often trend a bit further north inside 72 hours OR have a more expansive qpf field, which will keep anyone north of I-40 in the game! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Interesting the ensembles show more than the deterministic......for KTRI Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:07 AM, weathertree4u said: Looks like this is going mainly south of Nashville - am I missing something? GFS is...but NAM & 18z RGEM are further north. 15z SREF mean was further north than 03z & 9z. 21z is updating right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:16 AM, stadiumwave said: GFS is...but NAM & 18z RGEM are further north. 15z SREF mean was further north than 03z & 9z. 21z is updating right now. Hey good to see someone from Murray! You're near my old stomping grounds (Paris). Hope you do well with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:13 AM, Jaxjagman said: Don't buy this Looks like the NAM the last few runs has honestly moved north? Anyone else think it was a little early for Winter Storm Watches? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Rgem looks nice...... For those further north Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:19 AM, Stovepipe said: Hey good to see someone from Murray! You're near my old stomping grounds (Paris). Hope you do well with this one. Great!! You a Racer fan? Interesting to see if this will trend north any the next 24hrs. A RGEM/Euro blend may not be a bad bet right now. I think GFS is too far south but we'll see. Good luck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z RGEM snow (only goes out to hour 54) Edit: It's not even close to done snowing at that point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:19 AM, weathertree4u said: Looks like the NAM the last few runs has honestly moved north? Anyone else think it was a little early for Winter Storm Watches? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:19 AM, weathertree4u said: Looks like the NAM the last few runs has honestly moved north? Anyone else think it was a little early for Winter Storm Watches? Just curious Edit;not that far to the NW,just an idea of what the lift will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 FWIW - Nathan Scott showed his graphic for snow and had the heavy snow line through Knoxville, with moderate into far southern KY and VA.... With light well up onto those states as well. He showed the NAM (of course) and then tempered his graphic by showing an in house model that showed clear skies at the same time..... At least they are talking possibilities. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:30 AM, Stovepipe said: 18z RGEM snow (only goes out to hour 54) Edit: It's not even close to done snowing at that point.... Has that remained constant or is it in the process of moving North too? I like that placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:58 AM, weathertree4u said: Has that remained constant or is it in the process of moving North too? I like that placement It's just starting to get into RGEM range so I can't really say. It's still cranking hard across the eastern half of the state at that time frame so the extrapolated clown is probably nuts. The RGEM did very well for our east TN snow event last week. It did pretty decent with the west TN ice/sleet I thought. Temps were off a tad so it overdid it a bit on that but I've been impressed with the model this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Rgem at 18z surface map at hour 54. Still quite a bit to go in east Tn probably.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 2:04 AM, Stovepipe said: It's just starting to get into RGEM range so I can't really say. It's still cranking hard across the eastern half of the state at that time frame so the extrapolated clown is probably nuts. The RGEM did very well for our east TN snow event last week. It did pretty decent with the west TN ice/sleet I thought. Temps were off a tad so it overdid it a bit on that but I've been impressed with the model this season. So it is looking like this could be an entire state event with a general 2" - 4" statewide, north to south, not sure I have seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z NAM has light snow/flurries or virga already by 7-10am monday morning in east TN and even east of us by 10.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Another nice NAM run incoming it appears, especially for I-40 south. Hoping for a more expansive qpf field with this run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 7pm Monday, heavy snow far northern MS and AL..... Moderate snow southern TN Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like a tick south with the heavier precip compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 2:22 AM, tnweathernut said: Another nice NAM run incoming it appears, especially for I-40 south. Hoping for a more expansive qpf field with this run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hoping it continues the jog north on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM actually shifting the heavier axis a bit south here, (hardest hit areas in TN are southern 1/3) aligned with the euro or so it appears......though the southern apps do well. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 1:44 AM, tnweathernut said: FWIW - Nathan Scott showed his graphic for snow and had the heavy snow line through Knoxville, with moderate into far southern KY and VA.... With light well up onto those states as well. He showed the NAM (of course) and then tempered his graphic by showing an in house model that showed clear skies at the same time..... At least they are talking possibilities. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I like Nathan Scott, he's pretty strait forward with his info and communicates fairly decent with his followers on facebook. Here's to a little jog north for the storm......could use a day off from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM snow map through 57, largely over at this time... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not as long of a duration as the previous run. Precip winding down by 9z Tuesday morning. North GA gets the heavy precip but also the warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 2:31 AM, Stovepipe said: Not as long of a duration as the previous run. Precip winding down by 9z Tuesday morning. North GA gets the heavy precip but also the warmer temps. So, by this time tomorrow modeling should have converged on a solution correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z NAM total snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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