kvskelton Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Okay folks, here's a thread for the upcoming week! I hope the Abominable Snowman brings the mojo for everyone, especially those who are currently suffering a snow drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Incredible .02 qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Incredible .02 qpf.. Middle TN got ripped off on that 0z GFS run. Many more to go though. Thanks for starting the thread kvskelton! I hope the Abominable Snowman reels it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GGEM was a pretty good snow event for most of the state. Classic Miller A gulf low track from Louisiana to South Georgia to just off the Carolina coast. Precip type maps shows heavy snow moving across the state with 15-25mm (.60-1inch) of precip. South of 40 would probably see mixing issues and there are some 25-30mm totals down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The Euro shows 1-3 inches of snow streaking across the Northern half of Tennessee and Southern KY by hour 90. Not sure about the rest of the run yet but it's apparently colder and even larger for North Georgia and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wunderground for whatever reason skips from hour 126, right as moisture is building towards Tennessee to 144 which is showing 1-2 inches of snow falling in East Tennessee while the Carolinas get buried. No idea what happens in that 18 hour window of missing panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 After finally getting it to load, Euro looked to be a swing and a miss for most of the Tennessee Valley that run. East Tennessee looks to possibly do okay in areas where the 850s cooperate, 2-5 inches probably from the West side of the Plateau and points eastward. North Carolina gets crushed with 10+ in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There are several pieces of energy. That is why it was good to make the thread for the week. 144-168 looked excellent. Models are signalling a Miller A, just not all at the same time. The potential is still there on the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 6z GFS still has it. Again, can't watch every model run. Looks like a storm, but the models do not appear to have a solution yet. The set-up is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm keeping a close eye on this one. Even if Chattanooga misses out, I'm heading to Maggie Valley NC for Valentine's weekend with the wife. Assuming it doesn't snow a foot there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'd bump off a degree or two off the Euros 2m,they are always wrong but like Carver said,this range dont matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aeasberry21 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Allan Huffman is talking up a winter storm for tennessee next week. The 0z Canadian looked quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Allan Huffman is talking up a winter storm for tennessee next week. The 0z Canadian looked quite interesting. It sure did. That seems to be the best case scenario. It seems like there is quite a bit of consistency at this point with the general idea of what's going to go down next week. But, models are all over the place with temps. Some runs have the 850's torching with the surface cold, other runs have the surface torching and the 850s cold. Those lines are flying around everywhere and it's anybody's guess at this point what the precip type will be, at least in the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 maps! anyone have any snow maps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 maps! anyone have any snow maps yet? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It sure did. That seems to be the best case scenario. It seems like there is quite a bit of consistency at this point with the general idea of what's going to go down next week. But, models are all over the place with temps. Some runs have the 850's torching with the surface cold, other runs have the surface torching and the 850s cold. Those lines are flying around everywhere and it's anybody's guess at this point what the precip type will be, at least in the TN Valley. I agree,the Canadian is showing two systems like the Euro but the GFS don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Here is a run down of the 0z Euro ensembles through hour 240. This is what it is showing as snow totals, although we all know there could be sleet or freezing rain mixed in with that. 51 members total Bristol 7.5 inches deterministic, 4.8 ensemble mean 6 are greater than 9 inches 15 are greater than 6 inches 40 are greater than 2 inches All show some snow with only one showing a dusting Knoxville 2.3 deterministic, 2.7 mean 2 greater than 9 7 greater than 6 25 greater than 2 All show snow with 10 dustings Chattanooga 4 deterministic, 1.8 mean 1 greater than 9 6 greater than 6 13 greater than 2 All but 10 show at least a dusting Crossville 5.5 deterministic, 3.5 mean 2 greater than 9 9 greater than 6 30 greater than 2 All show snow with 7 dustings Nashville 3 deterministic, 3 mean 5 greater than 6 29 greater than 2 All show snow with 6 dustings Paris 2.6 deterministic, 2.8 mean 2 greater than 9 7 greater than 6 29 greater than 2 All show snow with 1 dusting Memphis 1.6 deterministic, 2.3 mean 1 greater than 9 3 greater than 6 24 greater than 2 All show snow with 4 dustings Road trip to Tri Cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Thanks Stove,i'll take that and run,be more than we've got all year in Williamson county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=644391688941426&set=pcb.644391772274751&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Excellent video this morning by Matthew East, check it out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 And a new public Robert Gamble video: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Stove..on Matthew East's video on the models, it appears that much of the TN Valley is effected by WAA or Warm nose. Are the models, particularly the Euro and GFS, pretty accurate in their temperature profile depiction? For us in TN, what do we need to have happen to keep the temperature profiles supportive of snow? Does the high pressure to the north need to be stronger and not shift to the east as quickly? The storm track looks very favorable for us based on past significant snow events in the Valley. With the low pressure tracking to our south, it's counterclockwise rotation should be pulling in colder air from the NE over our region. I hope we don't miss a significant snow by a few degrees!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Stove..on Matthew East's video on the models, it appears that much of the TN Valley is effected by WAA or Warm nose. Are the models, particularly the Euro and GFS, pretty accurate in their temperature profile depiction? For us in TN, what do we need to have happen to keep the temperature profiles supportive of snow? Does the high pressure to the north need to be stronger and not shift to the east as quickly? The storm track looks very favorable for us based on past significant snow events in the Valley. With the low pressure tracking to our south, it's counterclockwise rotation should be pulling in colder air from the NE over our region. I hope we don't miss a significant snow by a few degrees!!! My understanding is that it hinges on the strength and placement of that high pressure. If it scoots out or weakens too quickly we go to rain too early. Also probably depends on the timing of our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Thanks for the reply Stove. That is my understanding as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Stove..on Matthew East's video on the models, it appears that much of the TN Valley is effected by WAA or Warm nose. Are the models, particularly the Euro and GFS, pretty accurate in their temperature profile depiction? For us in TN, what do we need to have happen to keep the temperature profiles supportive of snow? Does the high pressure to the north need to be stronger and not shift to the east as quickly? The storm track looks very favorable for us based on past significant snow events in the Valley. With the low pressure tracking to our south, it's counterclockwise rotation should be pulling in colder air from the NE over our region. I hope we don't miss a significant snow by a few degrees!!! The GFS model moves the high out quickly b/c it breaks down the ridge over Baffin Island pretty quickly. Since that block develops nicely on modeling, I would think it holds longer than current GFS modeling shows. Time will tell, but MOST of TN is in the game. I am becoming more and more interested in the overrunning event before the main low too. It has the potential to be a nice little event across the state, starting as early as Monday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 As I have mentioned before, keep in mind the key energy wont even be on shore till Sunday so expect more flips and flops. 12z Canadian snow forecast with the leading overrunning band on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12Z Euro looks okay for TYS at face value...be interesting to see the tabular data when it is available...I still don't like CHA for that setup...for Monday that is...still jsut out to 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 How much qpf Mr Bob, general .2-.4 west to east? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like around 0.25ish...we don't have super fine graphics...just the SV package... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I see a more pronounced low in the upper Midwest on this euro run, not to mention a weaker high..... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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