JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well last friday everyone gave up on sun-mon storm. We know what happened. Hopefully it works the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well last friday everyone gave up on sun-mon storm. We know what happened. Hopefully it works the same way. we don't have much of a SE ridge this time so that's going to certainly hurt our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I would still anticipate this event won't be huge, 2-4 may be the absolutely best case scenario I can envision...I just never like relying on anything coming out of the west to produce snow unless we're talking a rapidly intensifying system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The more -PNA and lack of SE Ridge is whats preventing this from moving beyond the (1-3) (2-4) potential range. You can see how everything came together back on the run last Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It looks like there's some room for it to intensify as it nears the coast, possibly throwing back a bit more moisture. 2-4" would be awesome after the ordeal we went through, but given how things have trended this winter, maybe 3-6 or slightly higher is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 we don't have much of a SE ridge this time so that's going to certainly hurt our chances People also stated a million reasons last weekend of how there was no way it would snow Monday :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The more -PNA and lack of SE Ridge is whats preventing this from moving beyond the (1-3) (2-4) potential range. You can see how everything came together back on the run last Monday. Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_72.gif Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_168.gif April 1982 occurred in a zonal pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 rpm 2-4 sunday night fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 gefs match the op well for sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 gefs support the 2-4 sunday night..hopefully we see other models jump on idea .25+ from phl-bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 April 1982 occurred in a zonal pattern Its a little easier late season to get systems to blowup in less favorable patterns, although the 2/5 storm last winter was actually a very similar setup at 500mb to April 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 April 1982 occurred in a zonal pattern That was a much different situation that this one is. That was an upper low that closed off and bombed out on the leading edge of one of our strongest April Arctic outbreaks of all time. That was the last time NYC had 3 record lows in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If we get the 2 -4 late sunday night ending after the monday morning rush that is going to be a high impact event because it is happening before and during the morning rush hour with a layer of hard ice still on many driveways and sidewalks and some less traveled roads - will seem like more also since there is quite a bit of snow already on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Minus 10 air at 850 and temps in the 20s prob get u 15 to 1 .25 will get u to 4 . Hard to ask this to deepen as it coming from you're west And isn't digging like Mondays did. But it could be a good table setter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 what % of 18Z data is new? back to back "wet" runs of the ensembles almost counts as consistency this year ... although it would be more credible if it was 12z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 All the idv gefs have 2-4 sunday night…thats pretty good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFS are pretty good. 1-3/2-4 for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This snow threat is just baffling. It really seems to want to produce something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 SREFS support 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 OOZ NAM low much too far south and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 OOZ NAM low much too far south and out to sea.For tomorrow or Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 OOZ NAM low much too far south and out to sea.wrong wave dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 OOZ NAM low much too far south and out to sea. This low has been far south...we're relying on the clipper coming from the north to give us an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 OOZ NAM low much too far south and out to sea....yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 For tomorrow or Sunday night? Sunday, 02/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This low has been far south...we're relying on the clipper coming from the north to give us an inch or two Scattered snow showers imho. Air looks dry with HP initially in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 wrong wave dude Will see, still several days away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Will see, still several days away..I'm confused. Either you have the NAM before the world or I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Scattered snow showers imho. Air looks dry with HP initially in place. I agree actually. I think 2" tops, 1/2" to 1" more likely....just saying that wasn't the wave that was to produce though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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