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2/9 - 2/10 light snow observations


Zelocita Weather

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So what is this wave, does it eject ahead of the system the Euro develops for the 13th?

Its ahead of the Euro`s wave the EC presses a little further S , then brings the storm up along it . Similar  the Nam is just  further N

 

Wave 3 gets a little enhancement on the Coast Sunday , so there should some light accumulations around, would match the SREF

 

on the Euro it just presses , this one on the NAM  looks like it wants to come out

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Yeah the Sun Night/Mon wave is small potatoes, the 4th for Mon/Tue is the best chance. That looks like it has legs, a nice route NE to take and a good high pressure to the NW. 

Right we spoke about the Ridge axis  before .The issue for me is there are so many SW if one is goin to pop, its likely the models catch it late .

NAM 72 hours plus ... essshhhhhhh

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Yeah the Sun Night/Mon wave is small potatoes, the 4th for Mon/Tue is the best chance. That looks like it has legs, a nice route NE to take and a good high pressure to the NW. 

I don't buy it yet.  Minimal support on from the other models or their ensembles.  I think it would slide harmlessly off the SE coast as modeled anyway and I think this run of the NAM is overdone at the surface from 72hr - 84hr.  I don't like the upper levels for the Tue time period.  But I was wrong for the storm this past Mon.  And who knows... any one of several shortwaves is capable of spinning up a coastal.  It's interesting to note how amplified the northern stream flow is in Canada.  Several days ago most guidance had that high amplitude pattern further south.  A small change in the upper levels could really change the height orientation.

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The changes at hour 33 of the 18z GFS are laughable, comparing it to the 12z run.

18z has 2 separate vorts with 1 trying to ride under the other.

 

There's literally 4 vorts to all handle at once and all of which have impacts on the other. So any computer would have a hell of a time trying to figure out amplitudes, and then QPF for each. If all of this worked together, it would be one crazy storm, that's for sure.

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There's literally 4 vorts to all handle at once and all of which have impacts on the other. So any computer would have a hell of a time trying to figure out amplitudes, and then QPF for each. If all of this worked together, it would be one crazy storm, that's for sure.

hell yea it would and the way these models have been wouldn't be surprised. would you?

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hell yea it would and the way these models have been wouldn't be surprised. would you?

Look at it as "butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and causes a tornado in Missouri" syndrome. With so much chaos, it's nearly impossible to forecast with any real certainty. Try throwing a bunch of pebbles into a pond and trying to forecast the amplitudes of the resulting wakes as they interact with each other.

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Look at it as "butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and causes a tornado in Missouri" syndrome. With so much chaos, it's nearly impossible to forecast with any real certainty. Try throwing a bunch of pebbles into a pond and trying to forecast the amplitudes of the resulting wakes as they interact with each other.

touche sir

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