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2/9 - 2/10 light snow observations


Zelocita Weather

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The first southern stream s/w that slides off the east coast on Sat is approaching a longwave ridge, so it will dampen and weaken.  Then northern stream s/w coming through the Lakes Sat night and Sun should strengthen, since it is actually rounding the base of a trof  But the baroclinicity is terrible along the coast behind the first wave that slid east.  Without a strong thermal boundary we would need an extremely intense s/w to initiate cyclogenesis along the coast.

 

If something meaningful is going to happen, I think it would be Sunday night or Monday.

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That ULL over the PAC NW is sending in like 10 short waves and each run is focusing on a different one

Oh yea these storms slated for sunday/ monday on no doubt are going to cause noticable run-to-run differences. This is why im stepping away from seriousl model watching until monday/ tuesday. Taking baby steps now

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The 15z SREF's are 0.10"+.

That doesn't tell the full story.  The mean is about .2" for NYC.  +.25" for the twin forks.  Half of the members are +.25".  3 or 4 are +.5" and 4 or 5 are basically 0.  There are no big hits but it's not terrible to see that most of the individuals want to bring a band of accumulating snow through the area late Sunday night.

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That doesn't tell the full story.  The mean is about .2" for NYC.  +.25" for the twin forks.  Half of the members are +.25".  3 or 4 are +.5" and 4 or 5 are basically 0.  There are no big hits but it's not terrible to see that most of the individuals want to bring a band of accumulating snow through the area late Sunday night.

Yeah I didn't look at the individual members, but it's not surprising considering their were lots of nice hits at 09z.

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SREF snowfall probs off the 15z are in the 25% range for 1" of snow and 10% or so for 4" of snow across the area.  I don't put much stock in the specific numbers but this tool is useful as a rough estimate of likelihoods.  These numbers are not that far off from previous runs.  But there has been a trend of lessening the probabilities on Saturday/Sunday and increasing the probs late Sun into Mon.

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Such a shame the southern stream isn't just a bit slower or we probably we'd have seen a MECS. 

A mechanism has to make the two waves phase into each other. The pattern is very flat so there can be little amplification, and the waves can just fly by each other. Not a recipe for a big storm of any kind.

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A mechanism has to make the two waves phase into each other. The pattern is very flat so there can be little amplification, and the waves can just fly by each other. Not a recipe for a big storm of any kind.

There was clearly some mechanism because the models were going crazy with this several days ago. 

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