PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just not enough wave spacing so there`s no room for any of these to amplify on the GFS .I would keep an eye on the clipper sunday for some last minute deepening at the coast ( for something light ) , and wave 4 maybe as we get closer maybe we can lose some confluence . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Going from 30" hype to snow showers for this weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't think the models have the multiple shortwaves resolved very well. But we're starting to run out of time. Right now none of the guidance digs any shortwave far enough south or amplifies it significantly to raise heights on the east coast and pull a surface reflection close enough for impact. But about a third of the 06z GEFS had some kind of coastal impact on Sun night/Mon, so I will keep checking back in. This could be the kind of last minute shift that is most exciting. But expectations have significantly lowered from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The midweek storm gets cut off from the N branch , so thats lost on the GFS too . Best hope in my mind is the 4th wave IMO , The models may pick up on this last minute . Will wait for the Euro and see if it can catch one of the waves . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The reason I may like this one the best , is there seems to be better ridge axis here . Will root a SE ridge on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12z GGEM is going nutz with the southern stream vort, it's way more amplified than any other model through hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Nearly going negative tilt at hour 21 with some northern stream interaction. You can't make this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Nearly going negative tilt at hour 21 with some northern stream interaction. You can't make this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 The reason I may like this one the best , is there seems to be better ridge axis here . Will root a SE ridge on here Agreed, not a lock or even likely by any means, but.....has the best potential out of anything I see right now. Mon-TUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It literally just missed the phase by 3-6 hours. The southern stream is just out running everything enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Anyway, the northern stream looks energetic through hr 30 and you have a strong vort max near Denver at the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It literally just missed the phase by 3-6 hours. The southern stream is just out running everything enough.Sounds like we're not out of the woods yet. Have to see what the EURO says at 1 with this close call yank. Saw the run too and the missed phase was literally a few hours off, phased it wouldve been a big storm for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Anyway, the northern stream looks energetic through hr 30 and you have a strong vort max near Denver at the same hour. Ive been saying the past couple days how northern stream waves have been consistently under emphasized the entire winter. Looks like this may be the case as well but want to see another global before saying this for certain. EURO should be interesting as it is another similar global Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Think models finally are keying on what vort to use, hopefully we see a up kick in qpf. Euro should be telling at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ive been saying the past couple days how northern stream waves have been consistently under emphasized the entire winter. Looks like this may be the case as well but want to see another global before saying this for certain. EURO should be interesting as it is another similar globalStill time left, hopefully we can squeeze something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It literally just missed the phase by 3-6 hours. The southern stream is just out running everything enough. I doubt it was that close, but clearly even on the gfs the phasing wasn't too far off but unfortunately time has basically run out for things to trend better so we'll just have to see if the northern stream can deliver at least a minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I doubt it was that close, but clearly even on the gfs the phasing wasn't too far off but unfortunately time has basically run out for things to trend better so we'll just have to see if the northern stream can deliver at least a minor event. Look at this H5 and draw your own conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's the everlasting progressive flow hurting us once again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Look at this H5 and draw your own conclusions. That was tantalizingly close. Think the models "should" be keying in on a more pronounced northern stream vort, dont know if that will complete the phase eventually today or at all on the models but im sure its being sampled alot better to see that kind of jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's the everlasting progressive flow hurting us once again this year. Yep....pac flow undecuts the pna ridge. blech Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's close but it's just not enough unless we see some last second change then this is off the table. The minor event is still there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Will there be thundersnow?will i have mixing problems?is that deform band suppose setup over my house? Haha its all good fun though i mean it is IMBY question but harmless Sorry to go off topic but what does IMBY mean? Me being such a newbie would like to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 in my back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's close but it's just not enough unless we see some last second change then this is off the table. The minor event is still there though. If the northern stream can be a bit more powerful and energetic it can phase with the system creating something more noteworthy than a minor event at the very least. The global models usually are the first to key on these features more than the GFS so seeing that was fairy encouraging and expect the EURO to show something similar. Seeing that drastic of a change tells me something is at work with the N. stream shortwave that the GGEM just ingested into its data set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Gefs mean is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Sorry to go off topic but what does IMBY mean? Me being such a newbie would like to know. In my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Gefs mean is nice .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Gefs mean is nice yes delivers a stripe of 0.25 across the southern NYC Metro and points northeast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014020712/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 yes delivers a stripe of 0.25 across the southern NYC Metro and points northeast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014020712/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_13.png Minus 12 air @ 850 , Nice Ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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