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2/9 - 2/10 light snow observations


Zelocita Weather

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Just not enough wave spacing so there`s no room for any of these to amplify on the GFS .
I would keep an eye on the clipper sunday for some last minute deepening at the coast  ( for something light ) , and wave 4 

maybe as we get closer  maybe we can lose some confluence . 

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I don't think the models have the multiple shortwaves resolved very well.  But we're starting to run out of time.  Right now none of the guidance digs any shortwave far enough south or amplifies it significantly to raise heights on the east coast and pull a surface reflection close enough for impact.  But about a third of the 06z GEFS had some kind of coastal impact on Sun night/Mon, so I will keep checking back in.  This could be the kind of last minute shift that is most exciting.  But expectations have significantly lowered from a few days ago.

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The midweek storm gets cut off from the N branch , so thats lost on the GFS too .

Best hope in my mind is the 4th wave IMO , The models may pick up on this last minute .  Will wait 

for the Euro and see if it can catch one of the waves . 

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It literally just missed the phase by 3-6 hours. The southern stream is just out running everything enough.

Sounds like we're not out of the woods yet. Have to see what the EURO says at 1 with this close call yank. Saw the run too and the missed phase was literally a few hours off, phased it wouldve been a big storm for sure
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Anyway, the northern stream looks energetic through hr 30 and you have a strong vort max near Denver at the same hour.

Ive been saying the past couple days how northern stream waves have been consistently under emphasized the entire winter. Looks like this may be the case as well but want to see another global before saying this for certain. EURO should be interesting as it is another similar global

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Ive been saying the past couple days how northern stream waves have been consistently under emphasized the entire winter. Looks like this may be the case as well but want to see another global before saying this for certain. EURO should be interesting as it is another similar global

Still time left, hopefully we can squeeze something out.
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It literally just missed the phase by 3-6 hours. The southern stream is just out running everything enough.

I doubt it was that close, but clearly even on the gfs the phasing wasn't too far off but unfortunately time has basically run out for things to trend better so we'll just have to see if the northern stream can deliver at least a minor event. 

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I doubt it was that close, but clearly even on the gfs the phasing wasn't too far off but unfortunately time has basically run out for things to trend better so we'll just have to see if the northern stream can deliver at least a minor event. 

Look at this H5 and draw your own conclusions.

 

CMC_500mbHgtVort_na_f21.png?1391790981
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Look at this H5 and draw your own conclusions.

CMC_500mbHgtVort_na_f21.png?1391790981

That was tantalizingly close. Think the models "should" be keying in on a more pronounced northern stream vort, dont know if that will complete the phase eventually today or at all on the models but im sure its being sampled alot better to see that kind of jump

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It's close but it's just not enough unless we see some last second change then this is off the table. The minor event is still there though.

If the northern stream can be a bit more powerful and energetic it can phase with the system creating something more noteworthy than a minor event at the very least. The global models usually are the first to key on these features more than the GFS so seeing that was fairy encouraging and expect the EURO to show something similar. Seeing that drastic of a change tells me something is at work with the N. stream shortwave that the GGEM just ingested into its data set

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