IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z 4K NAM has what would amount to scattered snow showers or flurries for Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12Z GFS wouldnt surprise me if it amped back up the sunday/monday threat. Damn near impossible to nail anything down outside of 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 About half of the 09z SREF members significantly intensify the system as it hits the coast and it's not just ARW members. A few members really blow it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 About half of the 09z SREF members significantly intensify the system as it hits the coast and it's not just ARW members. A few members really blow it up.which wave/timeframe? I am as lost as the models right now...way too many shortwaves to handle accurately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 which wave/timeframe? I am as lost as the models right now...way too many shortwaves to handle accurately! The timing is all over the place. Some actually cut the clipper to Buffalo and we get what would amount to an arctic frontal passage. Others are further south and delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 When does it start? Well played dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 About half of the 09z SREF members significantly intensify the system as it hits the coast and it's not just ARW members. A few members really blow it up. So we've narrowed it down to a flizzard to a signifigant Miller B for our area from the SREF/ARW. Shouldnt be too hard from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wishcasting lol i wouldnt say wishcasting, its enthusiastically forecasting Holding onto faint snow hopes and always emphasizing the snowiest potential, even if you try to use meteorological terms, is wishcasting. If it was once in awhile, I don't think anyone would care, but almost 1400 posts in 60 days is almost 25 posts per day and between you and some of the other wishcasters, it simply clutters these threads up. Maybe read a little more and post a little less - that's my approach, since I much prefer to read what the experts have to say (and I'm certain I know more about meteorological fundamentals than most; see the last paragraph of my profile if interested in why I say that). Just some friendly advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Holding onto faint snow hopes and always emphasizing the snowiest potential, even if you try to use meteorological terms, is wishcasting. If it was once in awhile, I don't think anyone would care, but almost 1400 posts in 60 days is almost 25 posts per day and between you and some of the other wishcasters, it simply clutters these threads up. Maybe read a little more and post a little less - that's my approach, since I much prefer to read what the experts have to say (and I'm certain I know more about meteorological fundamentals than most; see the last paragraph of my profile if interested in why I say that). Just some friendly advice. I'd rather have a wishcaster than a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Holding onto faint snow hopes and always emphasizing the snowiest potential, even if you try to use meteorological terms, is wishcasting. If it was once in awhile, I don't think anyone would care, but almost 1400 posts in 60 days is almost 25 posts per day and between you and some of the other wishcasters, it simply clutters these threads up. Maybe read a little more and post a little less - that's my approach, since I much prefer to read what the experts have to say (and I'm certain I know more about meteorological fundamentals than most; see the last paragraph of my profile if interested in why I say that). Just some friendly advice. agree 100 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Really getting burned with what the potential was and what the reality will probably be. It's unfortunate but there's a reason why getting 50, 60, 70+" of snow is so incredibly rare. At this point any snow is extra, but it's a shame how things have evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Really getting burned with what the potential was and what the reality will probably be. It's unfortunate but there's a reason why getting 50, 60, 70+" of snow is so incredibly rare. At this point any snow is extra, but it's a shame how things have evolved. Eventually, the lucky streak often runs out, particularly in a pattern not generally favorable for big snow here. In 2010-11, the streak ran out in early Feb, and maybe that's true here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Really getting burned with what the potential was and what the reality will probably be. It's unfortunate but there's a reason why getting 50, 60, 70+" of snow is so incredibly rare. At this point any snow is extra, but it's a shame how things have evolved. Dont know if you've seen how our snowstorms have occured this year and also how the models have a handle on things 48+ hours out which they dont. Throwing in the towel for sunday/ monday may or may not be smart but the guidance is still VERY wide as to the outcome. Today and tommorow "should" be clearer if we get something good or nothing. Not wishcasting btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Really getting burned with what the potential was and what the reality will probably be. It's unfortunate but there's a reason why getting 50, 60, 70+" of snow is so incredibly rare. At this point any snow is extra, but it's a shame how things have evolved. In the first week of February most have had 11-14" of snow, and constant snow cover with 2" QPF falling as freezing or frozen precip. That ain't bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 We could've benefited greatly from a SE ridge with that stuff off the SE coast on Saturday. It easily would've trended more amplified and N&W, but the confluence is actually a deterrent this time. Next week still looks somewhat interesting, and a lot of pattern changes begin with a big storm so that remains to be seen, but it may not even be a snow event as things are warming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS is a swing and a miss with the coastal but looks better than the NAM for a secondary event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Holding onto faint snow hopes and always emphasizing the snowiest potential, even if you try to use meteorological terms, is wishcasting. If it was once in awhile, I don't think anyone would care, but almost 1400 posts in 60 days is almost 25 posts per day and between you and some of the other wishcasters, it simply clutters these threads up. Maybe read a little more and post a little less - that's my approach, since I much prefer to read what the experts have to say (and I'm certain I know more about meteorological fundamentals than most; see the last paragraph of my profile if interested in why I say that). Just some friendly advice.Point taken and im not offended btw i just try and participate no matter what. Its what we're all here to do. Am i good at forecasting? No but i do try and post some stuff that is constructive and it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Maybe read a little more and post a little less - that's my approach, since I much prefer to read what the experts have to say. I thought he was an expert. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I thought he was an expert. :-/ Im not even close to being respectable i think. But i dont think i post unreadable garbage either ralph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Eventually, the lucky streak often runs out, particularly in a pattern not generally favorable for big snow here. In 2010-11, the streak ran out in early Feb, and maybe that's true here. I wouldn't be giving up just yet. Still plenty of winter left. While I don't think I would mind having no more snow I have a feeling we see a few more storms later in the month or in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z GFS has light snow for late Sunday night and pops a secondary south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Im not even close to being respectable i think. But i dont think i post unreadable garbage either ralphI really meant that....you usually post some quality stuff. You could have fooled me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Less than 0.10" north of I-78. Up to 0.10"+ southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Holding onto faint snow hopes and always emphasizing the snowiest potential, even if you try to use meteorological terms, is wishcasting. If it was once in awhile, I don't think anyone would care, but almost 1400 posts in 60 days is almost 25 posts per day and between you and some of the other wishcasters, it simply clutters these threads up. Maybe read a little more and post a little less - that's my approach, since I much prefer to read what the experts have to say (and I'm certain I know more about meteorological fundamentals than most; see the last paragraph of my profile if interested in why I say that). Just some friendly advice. Happy to see a fellow Ru grad who can write such an erudite bio ( yes I was insane enough to read it all Dr. ) who enjoys RU Footbll & the melody. Rock on & Snow on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'd much rather just see this go away. It's not going to be anything more than a nuisance snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I really meant that....you usually post some quality stuff. You could have fooled me. Nah i dont really know what he meant. Im moving on from that and concentrating on the weekend threat still which still has some legs to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS is a swing and a miss with the coastal but looks better than the NAM for a secondary event. It does ? This the total accumulated precip http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020712/gfs_apcpn_us_23.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It does ? This the total accumulated precip http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020712/gfs_apcpn_us_23.png Yes, it's better than the NAM which has 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z GFS has light snow for late Sunday night and pops a secondary south of Long Island. with no precip for part of the area http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020712/gfs_apcpn_us_23.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It does ? This the total accumulated precip http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014020712/gfs_apcpn_us_23.png If you take into account 6z suite and 12z suite as well as SREF/ARW they seem to be focusing on that LP popping south of LI and intensifying to varying degrees. The 12z gfs was more energetic with the northern stream but was a bit off, overall the models did trend wetter today no doubt and we're not out of woods with any kind of trending being 60 hours out still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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