BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Since when are we using a 78 hour Nam for guidance ???? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014020706/namconus_reflectivity_us_25.png It's more of a FWIW. It's Good At Picking Up Trends even at 84 hours put Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's more of a FWIW. It's Good At Picking Up Trends even at 84 hours put It is but also one of the more amped up aggressive models. However that look is pretty promising this far out. If it can get its act together quick enough and deepen a low level warning event or more is possible. 12Z runs once again are going to be interesting....been saying that whole week and getting tired of it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's more of a FWIW. It's Good At Picking Up Trends even at 84 hours put If we see that clipper at 60 hours which is 0Z tomorrow then we should consider it along with any GEFS members that are showing something similar - models out of their more accurate range is exactly FWIW - and for these media outlet METS and the NWS they cried wolf once already this past week and were wrong - keep doing that and be wrong again less people will believe them the next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If we see that clipper at 60 hours which is 0Z tomorrow then we should consider it along with any GEFS members that are showing something similar - models out of their more accurate range is exactly FWIW - and for these media outlet METS and the NWS they cried wolf once already this past week and were wrong - keep doing that and be wrong again less people will believe them the next time Who cried wolf? Only if you went into the discussion part of the nws, did you have an idea of a questionable solution 7 days out. Most mets were conservative in the approach to the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If we see that clipper at 60 hours which is 0Z tomorrow then we should consider it along with any GEFS members that are showing something similar - models out of their more accurate range is exactly FWIW - and for these media outlet METS and the NWS they cried wolf once already this past week and were wrong - keep doing that and be wrong again less people will believe them the next time People should not even be panicking if it were to be a 4-6 event. we can handle that easily around most of these parts. The media doesn't help by putting every single 6 inch snowstorm in the country in the news. 6 inches when it happens in ME, WI, Chicago etc is not worthy of national news. And it isn't national news here either. Wed. event was not terrible in most of NJ and many schools blew a day they did not have because some mets were calling for severe ice storms. That happened in PA, but not in most of NJ; by 9 am the roads in Central NJ were passable. The highways were fine on Monday too. enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It is but also one of the more amped up aggressive models. However that look is pretty promising this far out. If it can get its act together quick enough and deepen a low level warning event or more is possible. 12Z runs once again are going to be interesting....been saying that whole week and getting tired of it haha Yes, so are most of us (getting tired of it). A little less wishcasting would be nice. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The Euro is close to moving to a 1-4" event with a bit more of a northward trend. But the flow aloft is more WSW than the Monday event which was SW. So I don't think this will be as juicy as Monday was even with a north shift next few days. Monday more WSW flow Monday more SW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yes, so are most of us (getting tired of it). A little less wishcasting would be nice. Thanks. Wishcasting lol i wouldnt say wishcasting, its enthusiastically forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wishcasting lol i wouldnt say wishcasting, its enthusiastically forecasting Without model support it becomes hard to read . The NAM is the most robust , but in a bad range . The Euro OP , Ensembles and its control see the 3 rd wave , but the flow comes under and doesn`t tilt . So lets just see what the next 2 days show . When there are multiple waves it takes time for the models to key in one if they are going to at all . The Euro Control run and its OP bring some light snow into CNJ Sat from the coastal , watch that today 1st and see if that can trend a little further N . Then go from there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Without model support it becomes hard to read . The NAM is the most robust , but in a bad range . The Euro OP , Ensembles and its control see the 3 rd wave , but the flow comes under and doesn`t tilt . So lets just see what the next 2 days show . When there are multiple waves it takes time for the models to key in one if they are going to at all . The Euro Control run and its OP bring some light snow into CNJ Sat from the coastal , watch that today 1st and see if that can trend a little further N . Then go from there . I agree, reason why im actually gung-ho on the NAM is the fact that seasonal trends have dictated that around this time ( not all the storms ) they started trending N&W and gradually wetter as well. I know ive beat that drum here the past few days and this system is different than mondays even but that is what kept me holding on to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 People should not even be panicking if it were to be a 4-6 event. we can handle that easily around most of these parts. The media doesn't help by putting every single 6 inch snowstorm in the country in the news. 6 inches when it happens in ME, WI, Chicago etc is not worthy of national news. And it isn't national news here either. Wed. event was not terrible in most of NJ and many schools blew a day they did not have because some mets were calling for severe ice storms. That happened in PA, but not in most of NJ; by 9 am the roads in Central NJ were passable. The highways were fine on Monday too. enough already. DeBlasio (sp?) doesn't help either. Every time there is a snow event forecast he finds a camera to talk to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There's a few GEFS that actually show a moderate event. Monday night could get interesting. It HAS been the trend this winter to lose storms, but then bring them back at this range. No I'm not saying some MECS is coming, but a light-moderate event could be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Here was the 3z SREF, not bad for this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Brace yourselves for a mikehobbyist bold call coming sometime today touting that this is going to sneek up on as a MECS for NYC/LI and produce 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There's a few GEFS that actually show a moderate event. Monday night could get interesting. It HAS been the trend this winter to lose storms, but then bring them back at this range. No I'm not saying some MECS is coming, but a light-moderate event could be in the cards. Monday Night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Craig Allen on CBS 880 now thinking this event could produce a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Brace yourselves for a mikehobbyist bold call coming sometime today touting that this is going to sneek up on as a MECS for NYC/LI and produce 12-18" ...followed by 2 HECS locks with the midweek storm and PDIII with 60 mph winds, 10 foot drifts in Central Park and snowpack until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Monday Night ? Woops, I meant Sunday Night into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 ...followed by 2 HECS locks with the midweek storm and PDIII with 60 mph winds, 10 foot drifts in Central Park and snowpack until May. Hes not a bad person though i bet. One sure bet is he is solidifying his status as an elite weenie here with the best weenie googles money can buy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 ...followed by 2 HECS locks with the midweek storm and PDIII with 60 mph winds, 10 foot drifts in Central Park and snowpack until May. And Sferic asking when does it all start..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 All you have to do is take yourself to this link and loop through the 84 hours of the NAM run to see why the forecast moving forward is very low confidence. There are too many areas of vorticity to count, with numerous disturbances and perturbations in the mid level flow moving very quickly from the poor data ingestion areas of the Pac into the CONUS over the next 3-5 days. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 And Sferic asking when does it all start..LOL What is the estimated start time on Long Island? When is the heaviest supposed to be? What time is it expected to end on Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What is the estimated start time on Long Island? When is the heaviest supposed to be? What time is it expected to end on Long Island? Will there be thundersnow?will i have mixing problems?is that deform band suppose setup over my house? Haha its all good fun though i mean it is IMBY question but harmless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 All you have to do is take yourself to this link and loop through the 84 hours of the NAM run to see why the forecast moving forward is very low confidence. There are too many areas of vorticity to count, with numerous disturbances and perturbations in the mid level flow moving very quickly from the poor data ingestion areas of the Pac into the CONUS over the next 3-5 days. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html Which (if any) models might best handle this, and what should we be looking for as a clue that we will get development and amplification in our area (or not)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 All you have to do is take yourself to this link and loop through the 84 hours of the NAM run to see why the forecast moving forward is very low confidence. There are too many areas of vorticity to count, with numerous disturbances and perturbations in the mid level flow moving very quickly from the poor data ingestion areas of the Pac into the CONUS over the next 3-5 days. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html This is a forecasters worst scenario if he needs to make a 3-4 day forecast right now with high confidence for his/her viewers clients. Im not even sure an amped up solutions for the weekend should be totally discounted yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is a forecasters worst scenario if he needs to make a 3-4 day forecast right now with high confidence for his/her viewers clients. Im not even sure an amped up solutions for the weekend should be totally discounted yet Its seems to me this winter they tend to ramp up as they close in on us. Anyone else think the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Which (if any) models might best handle this, and what should we be looking for as a clue that we will get development and amplification in our area (or not)? Hard to say. With the last event, the sleeper in the entire pattern was the CMC. Many forgot about it since it lost the solution for a few runs, but in the medium range for this past Monday event, the CMC was the only model showing the solution that eventually occurred. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that there isn't really a specific model that you can use in a pattern like this. With so many disturbances and a progressive pattern overall, you look for signals but realize that things can also pop up out of nowhere. The SREF have also been very impressive in the past 3-4 events, we shouldn't overlook that. So my suggestion would be to keep an eye on the SREF and the ensemble mean..and keep your eyes and expectations within 3-5 days. Looking beyond that will only lead to false threats and disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Craig Allen on CBS 880 now thinking this event could produce a few inches. I always thought that follow-up vort/trough was the one to watch, since just a fair amount of amplification could spin up a low with enough energy for a few inches or so as it taps the Atlantic. It won't be a major event by any means but could be a nice snowpack refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well the NAM should be rolling. Is anyone on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Craig seems to be jumping on the 6z NAM. I'd wait for the 12z runs. There is some slight support from the ECMWF. But he NAM/DGEX and CMC often have amplfied solutions at this range, But there are hardly ever consistent. So there not very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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