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2/9 - 2/10 light snow observations


Zelocita Weather

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It's more of a FWIW. It's Good At Picking Up Trends even at 84 hours put

It is but also one of the more amped up aggressive models. However that look is pretty promising this far out. If it can get its act together quick enough and deepen a low level warning event or more is possible. 12Z runs once again are going to be interesting....been saying that whole week and getting tired of it haha

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It's more of a FWIW. It's Good At Picking Up Trends even at 84 hours put

If we see that clipper at 60 hours which is 0Z tomorrow then we should consider it along with any GEFS members that are showing something similar - models out of their more accurate range is exactly FWIW - and for these media outlet METS and the NWS they cried wolf once already this past week and were wrong - keep doing that and be wrong again less people will believe them the next time

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If we see that clipper at 60 hours which is 0Z tomorrow then we should consider it along with any GEFS members that are showing something similar - models out of their more accurate range is exactly FWIW - and for these media outlet METS and the NWS they cried wolf once already this past week and were wrong - keep doing that and be wrong again less people will believe them the next time

Who cried wolf? Only if you went into the discussion part of the nws, did you have an idea of a questionable solution 7 days out. Most mets were conservative in the approach to the potential.

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If we see that clipper at 60 hours which is 0Z tomorrow then we should consider it along with any GEFS members that are showing something similar - models out of their more accurate range is exactly FWIW - and for these media outlet METS and the NWS they cried wolf once already this past week and were wrong - keep doing that and be wrong again less people will believe them the next time

People should not even be panicking if it were to be a 4-6 event. we can handle that easily around most of these parts. The media doesn't help by putting every single 6 inch snowstorm in the country in the news. 6 inches when it happens in ME, WI, Chicago etc is not worthy of national news. And it isn't national news here either. Wed. event was not terrible in most of NJ and many schools blew a day they did not have because some mets were calling for severe ice storms. That happened in PA, but not in most of NJ; by 9 am the roads in Central NJ were passable. The highways were fine on Monday too. enough already.

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It is but also one of the more amped up aggressive models. However that look is pretty promising this far out. If it can get its act together quick enough and deepen a low level warning event or more is possible. 12Z runs once again are going to be interesting....been saying that whole week and getting tired of it haha

Yes, so are most of us (getting tired of it).  A little less wishcasting would be nice.  Thanks. 

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The Euro is close to moving to a  1-4" event with a bit more of a northward trend. But the flow

aloft is more WSW than the Monday event which was SW. So I don't think this will be as

juicy as Monday was even with a north shift next few days.

 

Monday more WSW flow

 

 

Monday more SW flow 

 

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Wishcasting lol i wouldnt say wishcasting, its enthusiastically forecasting :lol:

Without model support it becomes hard to read . The NAM is the most robust , but in a bad range .

The Euro OP , Ensembles and its control see the 3 rd wave , but the flow comes under and doesn`t tilt .

So lets just see what the next 2 days show . When there are multiple waves it takes time for the models to key in one if they

are going to at all .

 

The Euro Control run and its OP bring some light snow into CNJ Sat from the coastal , watch that today 1st and see if that can trend a little further N .  Then go from there .

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Without model support it becomes hard to read . The NAM is the most robust , but in a bad range .

The Euro OP , Ensembles and its control see the 3 rd wave , but the flow comes under and doesn`t tilt .

So lets just see what the next 2 days show . When there are multiple waves it takes time for the models to key in one if they

are going to at all .

The Euro Control run and its OP bring some light snow into CNJ Sat from the coastal , watch that today 1st and see if that can trend a little further N . Then go from there .

I agree, reason why im actually gung-ho on the NAM is the fact that seasonal trends have dictated that around this time ( not all the storms ) they started trending N&W and gradually wetter as well. I know ive beat that drum here the past few days and this system is different than mondays even but that is what kept me holding on to this

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People should not even be panicking if it were to be a 4-6 event. we can handle that easily around most of these parts. The media doesn't help by putting every single 6 inch snowstorm in the country in the news. 6 inches when it happens in ME, WI, Chicago etc is not worthy of national news. And it isn't national news here either. Wed. event was not terrible in most of NJ and many schools blew a day they did not have because some mets were calling for severe ice storms. That happened in PA, but not in most of NJ; by 9 am the roads in Central NJ were passable. The highways were fine on Monday too. enough already.

DeBlasio (sp?) doesn't help either.  Every time there is a snow event forecast he finds a camera to talk to.

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There's a few GEFS that actually show a moderate event. Monday night could get interesting. It HAS been the trend this winter to lose storms, but then bring them back at this range. No I'm not saying some MECS is coming, but a light-moderate event could be in the cards.

Monday Night ?

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All you have to do is take yourself to this link and loop through the 84 hours of the NAM run to see why the forecast moving forward is very low confidence. There are too many areas of vorticity to count, with numerous disturbances and perturbations in the mid level flow moving very quickly from the poor data ingestion areas of the Pac into the CONUS over the next 3-5 days. 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html

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What is the estimated start time on Long Island? When is the heaviest supposed to be? What time is it expected to end on Long Island?

Will there be thundersnow?will i have mixing problems?is that deform band suppose setup over my house? Haha its all good fun though i mean it is IMBY question but harmless

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All you have to do is take yourself to this link and loop through the 84 hours of the NAM run to see why the forecast moving forward is very low confidence. There are too many areas of vorticity to count, with numerous disturbances and perturbations in the mid level flow moving very quickly from the poor data ingestion areas of the Pac into the CONUS over the next 3-5 days. 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html

 

Which (if any) models might best handle this, and what should we be looking for as a clue that we will get development and amplification in our area (or not)?

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All you have to do is take yourself to this link and loop through the 84 hours of the NAM run to see why the forecast moving forward is very low confidence. There are too many areas of vorticity to count, with numerous disturbances and perturbations in the mid level flow moving very quickly from the poor data ingestion areas of the Pac into the CONUS over the next 3-5 days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_6z/wrfloop.html

This is a forecasters worst scenario if he needs to make a 3-4 day forecast right now with high confidence for his/her viewers clients. Im not even sure an amped up solutions for the weekend should be totally discounted yet

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This is a forecasters worst scenario if he needs to make a 3-4 day forecast right now with high confidence for his/her viewers clients. Im not even sure an amped up solutions for the weekend should be totally discounted yet

Its seems to me this winter they tend to ramp up as they close in on us. Anyone else think the same?

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Which (if any) models might best handle this, and what should we be looking for as a clue that we will get development and amplification in our area (or not)?

 

Hard to say. With the last event, the sleeper in the entire pattern was the CMC. Many forgot about it since it lost the solution for a few runs, but in the medium range for this past Monday event, the CMC was the only model showing the solution that eventually occurred. 

 

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that there isn't really a specific model that you can use in a pattern like this. With so many disturbances and a progressive pattern overall, you look for signals but realize that things can also pop up out of nowhere. 

 

The SREF have also been very impressive in the past 3-4 events, we shouldn't overlook that. So my suggestion would be to keep an eye on the SREF and the ensemble mean..and keep your eyes and expectations within 3-5 days. Looking beyond that will only lead to false threats and disappointment. 

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Craig Allen on CBS 880 now thinking this event could produce a few inches.

I always thought that follow-up vort/trough was the one to watch, since just a fair amount of amplification could spin up a low with enough energy for a few inches or so as it taps the Atlantic. It won't be a major event by any means but could be a nice snowpack refresher.

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